Rams vs. Commanders: O/U 48.5

9 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Under (41%) · Under at 77¢ · $111K held · ended Nov 8

Over23¢Under77¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 41%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$111.1K

Combined PnL

$836.53

Smart Money Entry

54.7¢ → 77¢

+41% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 22 top traders (41%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over23%

Under77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$59.0K

Total Shares109,232

Combined PnL$-4.2K

Over13 traders

Total Value$49.6K

Total Shares107,397

Combined PnL+$5.0K

Under — 41%Over — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

75h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

41% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

ctrOver 53% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 21

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Underavg 52¢	$36.4K	$29.7K	$-6.6K	53% 680-594 (1274)
GM gmpm2CTR	Overavg 48¢	$20.2K	$24.1K	+$4.0K	54% 385-331 (716)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 50¢	$6.5K	$9.8K	+$55.71	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Overavg 28¢	$8.5K	$9.1K	+$565.09	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
PW PwaddlerCTR	Overavg 50¢	$6.3K	$7.2K	+$940.37	49% 493-509 (1002)
PR primm	Underavg 48¢	$4.5K	$6.8K	+$2.2K	46% 1426-1652 (3078)
AN Anon455	Underavg 85.2¢	$5.5K	$5.0K	-$530.98	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 75.5¢	$3.9K	$3.5K	-$390.15	49% 516-547 (1063)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 51.7¢	$3.0K	$3.5K	+$1.2K	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Overavg 50.4¢	$2.6K	$3.5K	+$845.93	47% 564-647 (1211)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 48¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$28.84	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Overavg 52.4¢	$2.6K	$1.3K	$-1.3K	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.4¢	$2.4K	$1.0K	$-1.3K
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.6¢	$214.77	$302.84	+$88.07
RN1CTR	Overavg 45.1¢	$2.2K	$1.2K	$-1.0K	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
betdge	Underavg 75.5¢	$755	$680	-$75	49% 1422-1474 (2896)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 45.6¢	$663.6	$600.72	-$62.88	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.6¢	$458.7	$321.92	-$136.78
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$204.9	$278.8	+$73.9
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$475.71	$583.7	+$107.99	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$229.87	$354.2	+$124.33
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$498.75	$229.5	-$16.34
BI biying88888CTR	Overavg 24.5¢	$341.04	$445.44	+$104.4	48% 233-252 (485)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 47¢	$252.78	$259.55	+$6.77	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 47¢	$478.73	$234.37	-$244.36	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 48.8¢	$330.54	$104.72	-$114.86	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 50¢	$200	$92	-$108	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
PL pltrkr111<$100	Underavg 50¢	$21.48	$18.26	-$3.22	55% 825-679 (1504)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 49.5¢	$16.97	$16.68	-$0.29	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 50¢	$21.31	$12.85	+$0.64	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 48.3¢	$26.87	$12.8	-$14.07	57% 17052-13027 (30079)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Under

Invested

$36,399.98

Value

$29.7K

PnL

$-6.6K

Record

53%

680-594 (1274)

gmpm2CTR

Over

Invested

$20,160

Value

$24.1K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

54%

385-331 (716)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$6,527.43

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$55.71

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Over

Invested

$8,528.33

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$565.09

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

PwaddlerCTR

Over

Invested

$6,269.02

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$940.37

Record

49%

493-509 (1002)

primm

Under

Invested

$4,542.3

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

46%

1426-1652 (3078)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$5,516.68

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$530.98

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$3,927.51

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$390.15

Record

49%

516-547 (1063)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$2,959.58

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Over

Invested

$2,613.59

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$845.93

Record

47%

564-647 (1211)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$3,286.86

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$28.84

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,599.98

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

Both legs:

Over$2,385.2152.4¢$-1.3K

Under$214.7754.6¢+$88.07

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$2,234.9

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

betdge

Under

Invested

$755

Value

$680

PnL

-$75

Record

49%

1422-1474 (2896)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$663.6

Value

$600.72

PnL

-$62.88

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Both legs:

Over$458.745.6¢-$136.78

Under$204.950¢+$73.9

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$475.71

Value

$583.7

PnL

+$107.99

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

Both legs:

Under$229.8750¢+$124.33

Over$498.7550¢-$16.34

biying88888CTR

Over

Invested

$341.04

Value

$445.44

PnL

+$104.4

Record

48%

233-252 (485)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$252.78

Value

$259.55

PnL

+$6.77

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$478.73

Value

$234.37

PnL

-$244.36

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$330.54

Value

$104.72

PnL

-$114.86

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$92

PnL

-$108

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

pltrkr111<$100

Under

Invested

$21.48

Value

$18.26

PnL

-$3.22

Record

55%

825-679 (1504)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.97

Value

$16.68

PnL

-$0.29

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$21.31

Value

$12.85

PnL

+$0.64

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.87

Value

$12.8

PnL

-$14.07

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 22 top traders (41%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

75h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

41% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

ctrOver 53% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 21

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.