Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (58%). 8 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Jets vs. Chiefs: O/U 48.5

8 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 42¢ · $63K held · ended Nov 8

Over42¢Under58¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$63.3K

Combined PnL

-$210.64

Smart Money Entry

45.1¢ → 42¢

-7% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 18 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Under 58%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$26.4K

Total Shares54,015

Combined PnL-$267.97

Under10 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares31,633

Combined PnL+$57.34

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (13 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrUnder 55% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Overavg 46.7¢	$16.7K	$19.1K	+$894.1	47% 564-647 (1211)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 44.2¢	$9.5K	$10.2K	+$753.51	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.2¢	$7.3K	$7.7K	+$381.67
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.7¢	$2.2K	$2.6K	+$371.85
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 57.4¢	$5.9K	$5.3K	-$624.04	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.4¢	$3.8K	$2.7K	$-1.1K
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.1¢	$2.1K	$2.6K	+$499.11
GM gmpm2	Underavg 55¢	$4.9K	$4.6K	-$314.55	54% 385-331 (716)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 52.3¢	$6.3K	$3.9K	$-1.4K	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 46.7¢	$6.6K	$3.9K	-$96.71	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.8¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$203.24
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.7¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$299.95
CM cm2897	Underavg 43.4¢	$2.9K	$3.3K	+$344.19	50% 2563-2606 (5169)
BI biying88888	Underavg 47¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$77.12	48% 233-252 (485)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 52.6¢	$3.4K	$2.3K	$-1.1K	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
└ Under leg	Underavg 76¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$130.53
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.6¢	$1.9K	$635.98	$-1.3K
LooksMaxing101	Underavg 54¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$125	51% 907-870 (1777)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Underavg 27.5¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$76.14	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 42.4¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$117.73	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 47.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$22.5	56% 8753-6943 (15696)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 15¢	$634.18	$954.83	+$320.65	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 53¢	$486.19	$496.66	+$10.47	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$225	$267.5	+$42.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$261.19	$229.16	-$32.03
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 40¢	$302.96	$397.74	+$94.78	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
└ Under leg	Underavg 40¢	$200	$297.5	+$97.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 41.6¢	$102.96	$100.24	-$2.72
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 53¢	$397.5	$383.75	-$13.75	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$265	$267.5	+$2.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$132.5	$116.25	-$16.25
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 51¢	$209.2	$211.26	+$2.05	49% 516-547 (1063)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 55¢	$208	$206	-$2	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$43.17	$50.4	+$7.23	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Underavg 38¢	$35.72	$37.13	+$1.41	53% 3744-3342 (7086)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$31.62	$26.67	-$4.95	49% 8555-8731 (17286)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 53¢	$27.15	$25	+$0.6	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 46¢	$26.74	$24.12	-$2.62	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$25.97	$23.77	-$2.21	46% 942-1118 (2060)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Over

Invested

$16,717.34

Value

$19.1K

PnL

+$894.1

Record

47%

564-647 (1211)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$9,478.14

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$753.51

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

Both legs:

Under$7,293.7444.2¢+$381.67

Over$2,184.445.7¢+$371.85

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$5,921.79

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$624.04

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Both legs:

Over$3,815.9357.4¢$-1.1K

Under$2,105.8648.1¢+$499.11

gmpm2

Under

Invested

$4,942.99

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$314.55

Record

54%

385-331 (716)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$6,293.02

Value

$3.9K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$6,575.39

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$96.71

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Both legs:

Under$1,966.6253.8¢+$203.24

Over$2,027.5346.7¢-$299.95

cm2897

Under

Invested

$2,916.15

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$344.19

Record

50%

2563-2606 (5169)

biying88888

Under

Invested

$2,416.2

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$77.12

Record

48%

233-252 (485)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,436.06

Value

$2.3K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

Both legs:

Under$1,523.676¢+$130.53

Over$1,912.4652.6¢$-1.3K

LooksMaxing101

Under

Invested

$1,675

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$125

Record

51%

907-870 (1777)

ferrariChampions2026

Under

Invested

$1,330.2

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$76.14

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$1,341.83

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$117.73

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,068.74

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$22.5

Record

56%

8753-6943 (15696)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$634.18

Value

$954.83

PnL

+$320.65

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$486.19

Value

$496.66

PnL

+$10.47

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

Both legs:

Over$22545¢+$42.5

Under$261.1953¢-$32.03

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$302.96

Value

$397.74

PnL

+$94.78

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

Both legs:

Under$20040¢+$97.5

Over$102.9641.6¢-$2.72

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$397.5

Value

$383.75

PnL

-$13.75

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

Both legs:

Over$26553¢+$2.5

Under$132.553¢-$16.25

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$209.2

Value

$211.26

PnL

+$2.05

Record

49%

516-547 (1063)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$208

Value

$206

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$43.17

Value

$50.4

PnL

+$7.23

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Under

Invested

$35.72

Value

$37.13

PnL

+$1.41

Record

53%

3744-3342 (7086)

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$31.62

Value

$26.67

PnL

-$4.95

Record

49%

8555-8731 (17286)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$27.15

Value

$25

PnL

+$0.6

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$26.74

Value

$24.12

PnL

-$2.62

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.97

Value

$23.77

PnL

-$2.21

Record

46%

942-1118 (2060)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 42%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 18 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Under 58%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (13 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrUnder 55% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.2%

42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$126.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

226.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.