Flyers vs. Flames

9 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Flyers (36%) · Flyers at 51¢ · $212K held · ended Nov 9

Flyers51¢Flames49¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Flyers

Consensus Traders

Flyers 36%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$211.8K

Combined PnL

$-35.2K

Smart Money Entry

53.1¢ → 50.5¢

-5% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralFlyers at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Flyers

9 of 25 top traders (36%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Flyers51%

Flames50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Flyers9 traders

Total Value$132.2K

Total Shares246,627

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Flames16 traders

Total Value$75.0K

Total Shares237,045

Combined PnL$-36.4K

Flyers — 36%Flames — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188	Flyersavg 53¢	$122.0K	$123.2K	+$1.2K	49% 328-348 (676)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Flamesavg 47¢	$72.4K	$36.1K	$-36.3K	48% 521-567 (1088)
nigiri99CTR	Flamesavg 48¢	$12.3K	$12.2K	-$134.98	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
CH ChonkVisionCTR	Flamesavg 47¢	$9.4K	$9.3K	-$100	55% 244-196 (440)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Flyersavg 53¢	$8.0K	$8.1K	+$75.32	53% 6645-5939 (12584)
BO BoggsFromShawshankCTR	Flamesavg 47¢	$6.9K	$7.2K	+$73.85	51% 1149-1104 (2253)
RO royalestakeCTR	Flamesavg 47¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$75	47% 425-472 (897)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Flamesavg 47¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$25.34	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Flyersavg 51¢	$1.2K	$1.8K	+$576.09	46% 2028-2381 (4409)
└ Flames leg	Flamesavg 24.6¢	$573.7	$1.2K	+$582.12
└ Flyers leg	Flyersavg 51¢	$615.06	$609.03	-$6.03
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494CTR	Flamesavg 47¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$52.5	52% 1343-1237 (2580)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Flyersavg 71.9¢	$2.1K	$1.7K	-$136.95	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
└ Flames leg	Flamesavg 39.1¢	$722.89	$915.29	+$183.07
└ Flyers leg	Flyersavg 71.9¢	$1.1K	$756.19	-$320.02
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Flamesavg 47¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$11.04	64% 2155-1193 (3348)
RN1	Flyersavg 73¢	$789.86	$838.55	+$48.69	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Flamesavg 42.4¢	$613.66	$640.12	+$26.46	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Flyersavg 63.8¢	$644.52	$615.73	-$28.79	53% 15513-13750 (29263)
└ Flyers leg	Flyersavg 63.8¢	$408.6	$323.45	-$85.15
└ Flames leg	Flamesavg 40¢	$235.92	$292.29	+$56.36
PI PIPIZINCTR	Flamesavg 48.2¢	$538.91	$552.93	+$14.01	51% 465-452 (917)
WE westing.v1ARB<$100	Flyersavg 51¢	$194.23	$197.08	+$2.85	49% 61-63 (124)
└ Flyers leg	Flyersavg 51¢	$122.4	$126	+$3.6
└ Flames leg	Flamesavg 48¢	$71.82	$71.08	-$0.75
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Flamesavg 47¢	$188	$186	-$2	50% 2217-2191 (4408)
OJ ojgARB<$100	Flamesavg 45.3¢	$164.95	$159.82	-$5.13	51% 3970-3784 (7754)
└ Flames leg	Flamesavg 45.3¢	$107.84	$117.81	+$9.97
└ Flyers leg	Flyersavg 68.7¢	$57.11	$42.01	-$15.1
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Flyersavg 74.4¢	$257.85	$112.35	-$43.98	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
└ Flames leg	Flamesavg 39.8¢	$48.54	$60.34	-$19.49
└ Flyers leg	Flyersavg 74.4¢	$76.65	$52.02	-$24.49
PT PT-S7ARB<$100	Flyersavg 71.4¢	$89.66	$89.91	+$0.25	46% 3489-4043 (7532)
└ Flames leg	Flamesavg 37.9¢	$44.32	$57.85	+$13.53
└ Flyers leg	Flyersavg 71.4¢	$45.34	$32.06	-$13.28
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Flyersavg 64¢	$80.64	$63.63	-$17.01	57% 20233-15052 (35285)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Flamesavg 48¢	$55.4	$34.05	-$21.35	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Flamesavg 46.4¢	$33.67	$33.73	+$0.06	57% 24691-18283 (42974)
PA pauleta23<$100	Flyersavg 53.5¢	$22.8	$25.18	+$2.38	65% 25418-13617 (39035)

0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188

Flyers

Invested

$122,010.59

Value

$123.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

49%

328-348 (676)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Flames

Invested

$72,399.15

Value

$36.1K

PnL

$-36.3K

Record

48%

521-567 (1088)

nigiri99CTR

Flames

Invested

$12,349.68

Value

$12.2K

PnL

-$134.98

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

ChonkVisionCTR

Flames

Invested

$9,400

Value

$9.3K

PnL

-$100

Record

55%

244-196 (440)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Flyers

Invested

$7,983.75

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$75.32

Record

53%

6645-5939 (12584)

BoggsFromShawshankCTR

Flames

Invested

$6,941.9

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$73.85

Record

51%

1149-1104 (2253)

royalestakeCTR

Flames

Invested

$3,600

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$75

Record

47%

425-472 (897)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Flames

Invested

$2,381.84

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$25.34

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Flyers

Invested

$1,188.76

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$576.09

Record

46%

2028-2381 (4409)

Both legs:

Flames$573.724.6¢+$582.12

Flyers$615.0651¢-$6.03

0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494CTR

Flames

Invested

$1,645

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$52.5

Record

52%

1343-1237 (2580)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Flyers

Invested

$2,148.97

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$136.95

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

Both legs:

Flames$722.8939.1¢+$183.07

Flyers$1,076.2171.9¢-$320.02

darkumbreon88CTR

Flames

Invested

$1,037.39

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$11.04

Record

64%

2155-1193 (3348)

RN1

Flyers

Invested

$789.86

Value

$838.55

PnL

+$48.69

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

FlaznorpCTR

Flames

Invested

$613.66

Value

$640.12

PnL

+$26.46

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Flyers

Invested

$644.52

Value

$615.73

PnL

-$28.79

Record

53%

15513-13750 (29263)

Both legs:

Flyers$408.663.8¢-$85.15

Flames$235.9240¢+$56.36

PIPIZINCTR

Flames

Invested

$538.91

Value

$552.93

PnL

+$14.01

Record

51%

465-452 (917)

westing.v1ARB<$100

Flyers

Invested

$194.23

Value

$197.08

PnL

+$2.85

Record

49%

61-63 (124)

Both legs:

Flyers$122.451¢+$3.6

Flames$71.8248¢-$0.75

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Flames

Invested

$188

Value

$186

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

2217-2191 (4408)

ojgARB<$100

Flames

Invested

$164.95

Value

$159.82

PnL

-$5.13

Record

51%

3970-3784 (7754)

Both legs:

Flames$107.8445.3¢+$9.97

Flyers$57.1168.7¢-$15.1

Pan9XARB<$100

Flyers

Invested

$257.85

Value

$112.35

PnL

-$43.98

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

Both legs:

Flames$48.5439.8¢-$19.49

Flyers$76.6574.4¢-$24.49

PT-S7ARB<$100

Flyers

Invested

$89.66

Value

$89.91

PnL

+$0.25

Record

46%

3489-4043 (7532)

Both legs:

Flames$44.3237.9¢+$13.53

Flyers$45.3471.4¢-$13.28

BillBenter2026<$100

Flyers

Invested

$80.64

Value

$63.63

PnL

-$17.01

Record

57%

20233-15052 (35285)

VenusianCTR<$100

Flames

Invested

$55.4

Value

$34.05

PnL

-$21.35

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Flames

Invested

$33.67

Value

$33.73

PnL

+$0.06

Record

57%

24691-18283 (42974)

pauleta23<$100

Flyers

Invested

$22.8

Value

$25.18

PnL

+$2.38

Record

65%

25418-13617 (39035)

Research grade

NeutralFlyers at 51%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Flyers

9 of 25 top traders (36%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Flyers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.