Penguins vs. Ducks

25 of 35 top Polymarket traders hold Ducks (71%) · Ducks at 83¢ · $58K held · ended Nov 9

Penguins18¢Ducks82¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ducks

Consensus Traders

Ducks 71%

Total Value

$58.1K

Combined PnL

-$196.24

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 82.5¢

+58% since entry · 25 traders

Research grade

NeutralDucks at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ducks

25 of 35 top traders (71%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Penguins18%

Ducks83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ducks25 traders

Total Value$56.0K

Total Shares104,643

Combined PnL+$464.93

Penguins10 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares6,790

Combined PnL-$661.17

Ducks — 71%Penguins — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

84% of non-arb traders are on Ducks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDucks 71% · 7

Aligned

ctrDucks 88% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedDucks 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Ducks 82% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Ducksavg 52¢	$33.9K	$33.8K	-$111.84	46% 33417-38911 (72328)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Ducksavg 52¢	$20.0K	$10.5K	+$100	51% 1025-997 (2022)
VeryLucky888	Ducksavg 51.7¢	$3.1K	$2.9K	+$52.05	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
0xheavy888	Ducksavg 51.9¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$24	56% 8780-6967 (15747)
CO cocococococo	Ducksavg 52¢	$2.2K	$1.2K	+$11.11	52% 1789-1619 (3408)
38 38791873984189	Ducksavg 59¢	$1.3K	$963.99	+$122.96	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
VladooosCTR	Penguinsavg 37.2¢	$999.9	$954.2	-$45.7	69% 143-63 (206)
RN1	Ducksavg 64¢	$647.04	$834.07	+$187.03	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
OM omnibus-076daa	Ducksavg 52.4¢	$827.89	$815.94	-$11.94	50% 23496-23498 (46994)
DV dv-pm	Ducksavg 52¢	$750.36	$757.58	+$7.22	47% 3588-3972 (7560)
nigiri99CTR	Penguinsavg 47.8¢	$971.45	$722.07	-$249.38	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Ducksavg 65.3¢	$359.52	$357.79	-$1.74	53% 15513-13750 (29263)
RO royalestake	Ducksavg 53.2¢	$245.92	$307.23	+$61.31	47% 425-472 (897)
SN SnakeBall	Ducksavg 52¢	$271.53	$274.14	+$2.61	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Ducksavg 52¢	$400	$210	+$2	50% 2217-2191 (4408)
BO BoomLaLa	Ducksavg 65.5¢	$196.5	$196.5	+$0	53% 14337-12646 (26983)
AV averagejoetradersCTR	Penguinsavg 37¢	$328	$155.14	-$172.86	55% 685-568 (1253)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Penguinsavg 39¢	$328	$147.18	-$180.82	53% 695-624 (1319)
KnureKnume	Ducksavg 54.2¢	$371.58	$129.68	+$11.35	48% 421-462 (883)
PA Pan9X	Ducksavg 58.6¢	$253.4	$113.95	+$28.48	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
PT PT-S7	Ducksavg 65¢	$121.48	$94.23	-$12.5	46% 3489-4043 (7532)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Ducksavg 52¢	$67.34	$67.99	+$0.65	64% 2155-1193 (3348)
WE westing.v1<$100	Ducksavg 53¢	$67.59	$66.95	-$0.64	49% 61-63 (124)
OJ ojg<$100	Ducksavg 77.1¢	$69.62	$61.98	-$7.64	51% 3970-3784 (7754)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Penguinsavg 33¢	$47.43	$48.15	+$0.72	52% 47368-44608 (91976)

ferrariChampions2026

Ducks

Invested

$33,881.33

Value

$33.8K

PnL

-$111.84

Record

46%

33417-38911 (72328)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Ducks

Invested

$20,000

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$100

Record

51%

1025-997 (2022)

VeryLucky888

Ducks

Invested

$3,099.98

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$52.05

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

0xheavy888

Ducks

Invested

$2,286

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$24

Record

56%

8780-6967 (15747)

cocococococo

Ducks

Invested

$2,222

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$11.11

Record

52%

1789-1619 (3408)

38791873984189

Ducks

Invested

$1,326.19

Value

$963.99

PnL

+$122.96

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

VladooosCTR

Penguins

Invested

$999.9

Value

$954.2

PnL

-$45.7

Record

69%

143-63 (206)

RN1

Ducks

Invested

$647.04

Value

$834.07

PnL

+$187.03

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

omnibus-076daa

Ducks

Invested

$827.89

Value

$815.94

PnL

-$11.94

Record

50%

23496-23498 (46994)

dv-pm

Ducks

Invested

$750.36

Value

$757.58

PnL

+$7.22

Record

47%

3588-3972 (7560)

nigiri99CTR

Penguins

Invested

$971.45

Value

$722.07

PnL

-$249.38

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Ducks

Invested

$359.52

Value

$357.79

PnL

-$1.74

Record

53%

15513-13750 (29263)

royalestake

Ducks

Invested

$245.92

Value

$307.23

PnL

+$61.31

Record

47%

425-472 (897)

SnakeBall

Ducks

Invested

$271.53

Value

$274.14

PnL

+$2.61

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Ducks

Invested

$400

Value

$210

PnL

+$2

Record

50%

2217-2191 (4408)

BoomLaLa

Ducks

Invested

$196.5

Value

$196.5

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

14337-12646 (26983)

averagejoetradersCTR

Penguins

Invested

$328

Value

$155.14

PnL

-$172.86

Record

55%

685-568 (1253)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Penguins

Invested

$328

Value

$147.18

PnL

-$180.82

Record

53%

695-624 (1319)

KnureKnume

Ducks

Invested

$371.58

Value

$129.68

PnL

+$11.35

Record

48%

421-462 (883)

Pan9X

Ducks

Invested

$253.4

Value

$113.95

PnL

+$28.48

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

PT-S7

Ducks

Invested

$121.48

Value

$94.23

PnL

-$12.5

Record

46%

3489-4043 (7532)

darkumbreon88<$100

Ducks

Invested

$67.34

Value

$67.99

PnL

+$0.65

Record

64%

2155-1193 (3348)

westing.v1<$100

Ducks

Invested

$67.59

Value

$66.95

PnL

-$0.64

Record

49%

61-63 (124)

ojg<$100

Ducks

Invested

$69.62

Value

$61.98

PnL

-$7.64

Record

51%

3970-3784 (7754)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Penguins

Invested

$47.43

Value

$48.15

PnL

+$0.72

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

Research grade

NeutralDucks at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Ducks

25 of 35 top traders (71%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

84% of non-arb traders are on Ducks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDucks 71% · 7

Aligned

ctrDucks 88% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedDucks 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Ducks 82% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ducks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.