Will Al Hazem SC win on 2026-11-06?

14 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 100¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 6

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$13.4K

Combined PnL

$3.7K

Smart Money Entry

83.5¢ → 99.9¢

+20% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 17 top traders (82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$13.4K

Total Shares13,444

Combined PnL+$3.0K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$17.66

Total Shares1,766

Combined PnL+$698.4

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

81% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (16 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 81% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
E4 e46m3	Noavg 99.6¢	$5.8K	$4.4K	+$12.56	72% 14056-5423 (19479)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.6¢	$3.2K	$2.8K	-$34.39	59% 11938-8372 (20310)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 11.1¢	$501.22	$2.4K	+$3.2K	40% 1094-1616 (2710)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 99.7¢	$7.6K	$695.32	+$7.24	42% 3173-4329 (7502)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 97¢	$597.24	$558.02	-$13.28	53% 22809-20010 (42819)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 99.6¢	$1.2K	$504.17	-$3.46	48% 1698-1875 (3573)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 99.6¢	$746	$440.25	-$2.4	39% 1067-1680 (2747)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 99.1¢	$479.58	$327.24	+$1.72	42% 1204-1692 (2896)
KO korda77	Noavg 99.8¢	$962.4	$305.29	-$190.1	44% 6543-8188 (14731)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658	Noavg 99.1¢	$585.78	$289.87	+$2.1	41% 1192-1750 (2942)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 97.7¢	$452.35	$228	+$3.05	55% 4438-3636 (8074)
ME merod	Noavg 99.6¢	$374.82	$197.13	-$0.4	43% 3155-4197 (7352)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 95.5¢	$120.15	$124.59	+$4.44	61% 913-595 (1508)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 98.4¢	$351.54	$122.46	+$0.17	47% 2220-2477 (4697)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$6.51	$11.99	+$5.48	20% 2607-10331 (12938)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$1.35	$4.96	+$692.45	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.25	$0.71	+$0.46	50% 20843-21072 (41915)

e46m3

Invested

$5,821.96

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$12.56

Record

72%

14056-5423 (19479)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$3,242.22

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$34.39

Record

59%

11938-8372 (20310)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$501.22

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

40%

1094-1616 (2710)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$7,625.45

Value

$695.32

PnL

+$7.24

Record

42%

3173-4329 (7502)

cigarettes

Invested

$597.24

Value

$558.02

PnL

-$13.28

Record

53%

22809-20010 (42819)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$1,208.89

Value

$504.17

PnL

-$3.46

Record

48%

1698-1875 (3573)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$746

Value

$440.25

PnL

-$2.4

Record

39%

1067-1680 (2747)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$479.58

Value

$327.24

PnL

+$1.72

Record

42%

1204-1692 (2896)

korda77

Invested

$962.4

Value

$305.29

PnL

-$190.1

Record

44%

6543-8188 (14731)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658

Invested

$585.78

Value

$289.87

PnL

+$2.1

Record

41%

1192-1750 (2942)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$452.35

Value

$228

PnL

+$3.05

Record

55%

4438-3636 (8074)

merod

Invested

$374.82

Value

$197.13

PnL

-$0.4

Record

43%

3155-4197 (7352)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$120.15

Value

$124.59

PnL

+$4.44

Record

61%

913-595 (1508)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$351.54

Value

$122.46

PnL

+$0.17

Record

47%

2220-2477 (4697)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.51

Value

$11.99

PnL

+$5.48

Record

20%

2607-10331 (12938)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.35

Value

$4.96

PnL

+$692.45

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.71

PnL

+$0.46

Record

50%

20843-21072 (41915)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 17 top traders (82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

81% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (16 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 81% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.