Will Gaziantep FK win on 2026-11-06?

21 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 97¢ · $81K held · ended Nov 6

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$80.8K

Combined PnL

$12.0K

Smart Money Entry

64.2¢ → 96.8¢

+51% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

21 of 23 top traders (91%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$27.4K

Total Shares67,818

Combined PnL+$405.06

No21 traders

Total Value$53.4K

Total Shares61,746

Combined PnL+$11.6K

Yes — 9%No — 91%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Yesavg 39.9¢	$27.0K	$27.4K	+$413.62	48% 201-214 (415)
RN1	Noavg 61.7¢	$10.3K	$14.6K	+$4.3K	53% 61769-54057 (115826)
VE Venusian	Noavg 62.4¢	$8.6K	$13.0K	+$4.5K	50% 1602-1633 (3235)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 60.3¢	$4.9K	$5.3K	+$381.7	49% 14850-15643 (30493)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 77¢	$4.2K	$4.7K	+$489.78	51% 26324-24949 (51273)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 62.5¢	$2.7K	$4.1K	+$1.4K	50% 28611-28439 (57050)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 61¢	$3.8K	$4.1K	+$251	50% 2752-2730 (5482)
oieshfn345	Noavg 88.3¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$110.97	57% 2067-1534 (3601)
NM NM-P	Noavg 61¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$95.08	64% 10069-5627 (15696)
GC GC-P	Noavg 61¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$94.75	64% 10093-5697 (15790)
LI Limousin	Noavg 63.9¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$112.81	51% 1642-1552 (3194)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 95.2¢	$347.68	$330.55	-$17.13	49% 1542-1626 (3168)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 67¢	$280.87	$264.33	+$58.42	48% 61881-66739 (128620)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 96.1¢	$368.03	$217.07	-$150.96	50% 1587-1606 (3193)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Noavg 94.1¢	$213.47	$157.21	-$56.26	46% 1668-1953 (3621)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 96.7¢	$164.95	$155.6	-$9.35	50% 37964-37221 (75185)
0xheavy888	Noavg 61¢	$122	$130	+$8	56% 8102-6427 (14529)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 82.2¢	$535.59	$118.66	+$41.45	54% 10092-8477 (18569)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$53.57	$52.78	-$0.79	84% 14960-2898 (17858)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 61.6¢	$39.32	$41.48	+$2.17	51% 6444-6225 (12669)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 61.5¢	$33.99	$35.93	+$1.94	55% 1399-1156 (2555)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 63¢	$11.9	$12.12	+$0.22	50% 26097-25756 (51853)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$16.56	$8.01	-$8.55	48% 7436-8152 (15588)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Yes

Invested

$26,952.84

Value

$27.4K

PnL

+$413.62

Record

48%

201-214 (415)

RN1

Invested

$10,276.12

Value

$14.6K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

53%

61769-54057 (115826)

Venusian

Invested

$8,570.26

Value

$13.0K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

50%

1602-1633 (3235)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$4,906.89

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$381.7

Record

49%

14850-15643 (30493)

Flaznorp

Invested

$4,181.27

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$489.78

Record

51%

26324-24949 (51273)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,722.66

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

50%

28611-28439 (57050)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$3,827.77

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$251

Record

50%

2752-2730 (5482)

oieshfn345

Invested

$1,823.87

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$110.97

Record

57%

2067-1534 (3601)

NM-P

Invested

$1,452.7

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$95.08

Record

64%

10069-5627 (15696)

GC-P

Invested

$1,447.7

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$94.75

Record

64%

10093-5697 (15790)

Limousin

Invested

$1,013.25

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$112.81

Record

51%

1642-1552 (3194)

MadridTime

Invested

$347.68

Value

$330.55

PnL

-$17.13

Record

49%

1542-1626 (3168)

38791873984189

Invested

$280.87

Value

$264.33

PnL

+$58.42

Record

48%

61881-66739 (128620)

LightParadox

Invested

$368.03

Value

$217.07

PnL

-$150.96

Record

50%

1587-1606 (3193)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Invested

$213.47

Value

$157.21

PnL

-$56.26

Record

46%

1668-1953 (3621)

SnakeBall

Invested

$164.95

Value

$155.6

PnL

-$9.35

Record

50%

37964-37221 (75185)

0xheavy888

Invested

$122

Value

$130

PnL

+$8

Record

56%

8102-6427 (14529)

Pan9X

Invested

$535.59

Value

$118.66

PnL

+$41.45

Record

54%

10092-8477 (18569)

WagerWizard<$100

Invested

$53.57

Value

$52.78

PnL

-$0.79

Record

84%

14960-2898 (17858)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$39.32

Value

$41.48

PnL

+$2.17

Record

51%

6444-6225 (12669)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$33.99

Value

$35.93

PnL

+$1.94

Record

55%

1399-1156 (2555)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$11.9

Value

$12.12

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

26097-25756 (51853)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.56

Value

$8.01

PnL

-$8.55

Record

48%

7436-8152 (15588)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

21 of 23 top traders (91%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.9%

96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.