Will Paris FC win on 2026-11-10?

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 89¢ · $32K held · ended Nov 10

Yes12¢No88¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$32.5K

Combined PnL

$423.3

Smart Money Entry

84.3¢ → 88.5¢

+5% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 17 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$22.8K

Total Shares23,819

Combined PnL+$528.59

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares11,522

Combined PnL-$105.3

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 56% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 88.3¢	$8.1K	$8.1K	+$7.65	58% 3757-2710 (6467)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 86.8¢	$8.3K	$7.7K	-$551.66	50% 1408-1410 (2818)
└ No leg	Noavg 86.8¢	$5.2K	$5.3K	+$99.59
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14.6¢	$3.0K	$2.4K	-$651.25
LI Limousin	Noavg 80.4¢	$5.0K	$5.4K	+$322.87	25% 213-654 (867)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 82.2¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$76.15	57% 1516-1167 (2683)
VE Venusian	Noavg 81.6¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$79.35	25% 213-654 (867)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 12.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$62.03	25% 214-643 (857)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 82.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$12.24	25% 215-633 (848)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 88¢	$642.94	$646.59	+$3.65	44% 79-102 (181)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Noavg 85.2¢	$657.47	$563.94	-$93.53	31% 170-383 (553)
└ No leg	Noavg 85.2¢	$347.43	$352.89	+$5.45
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19.8¢	$310.03	$211.05	-$98.99
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 82.7¢	$503.33	$526.41	+$23.08	41% 3023-4424 (7447)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 85.8¢	$376.19	$377.19	+$1	47% 148-167 (315)
tradecraftCTR	Yesavg 14.3¢	$121.72	$98.09	-$23.63	16% 106-570 (676)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$76	$56	-$20	9% 77-775 (852)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 84¢	$49.81	$50.99	+$1.19	53% 5376-4855 (10231)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 12.7¢	$108.14	$31.4	+$1.16	49% 231-239 (470)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3<$100	Noavg 82¢	$25.52	$26.76	+$1.24	60% 422-286 (708)
RI RichieRicher<$100	Noavg 89¢	$5.31	$5.28	-$0.03	54% 460-394 (854)
RL RLWG<$100	Noavg 82¢	$4.1	$4.3	+$0.2	68% 1591-741 (2332)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.5¢	$4.4	$3.6	-$0.8	60% 629-411 (1040)

RN1

Invested

$8,074.49

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$7.65

Record

58%

3757-2710 (6467)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$8,256.71

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$551.66

Record

50%

1408-1410 (2818)

Both legs:

No$5,221.2886.8¢+$99.59

Yes$3,035.4414.6¢-$651.25

Limousin

Invested

$5,046.16

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$322.87

Record

25%

213-654 (867)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$3,923.45

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$76.15

Record

57%

1516-1167 (2683)

Venusian

Invested

$2,438.33

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$79.35

Record

25%

213-654 (867)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,320.41

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$62.03

Record

25%

214-643 (857)

MadridTime

Invested

$1,149.56

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12.24

Record

25%

215-633 (848)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$642.94

Value

$646.59

PnL

+$3.65

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

sentrioARB<$100

Invested

$657.47

Value

$563.94

PnL

-$93.53

Record

31%

170-383 (553)

Both legs:

No$347.4385.2¢+$5.45

Yes$310.0319.8¢-$98.99

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$503.33

Value

$526.41

PnL

+$23.08

Record

41%

3023-4424 (7447)

SnakeBall

Invested

$376.19

Value

$377.19

PnL

+$1

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

tradecraftCTR

Yes

Invested

$121.72

Value

$98.09

PnL

-$23.63

Record

16%

106-570 (676)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76

Value

$56

PnL

-$20

Record

77-775 (852)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$49.81

Value

$50.99

PnL

+$1.19

Record

53%

5376-4855 (10231)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$108.14

Value

$31.4

PnL

+$1.16

Record

49%

231-239 (470)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3<$100

Invested

$25.52

Value

$26.76

PnL

+$1.24

Record

60%

422-286 (708)

RichieRicher<$100

Invested

$5.31

Value

$5.28

PnL

-$0.03

Record

54%

460-394 (854)

RLWG<$100

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$0.2

Record

68%

1591-741 (2332)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.4

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$0.8

Record

60%

629-411 (1040)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 17 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 56% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.