Will Real Madrid CF Femenino win on 2026-11-10?

6 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (35%) · Yes at 61¢ · $47K held · ended Nov 10

Yes61¢No39¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 35%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$47.0K

Combined PnL

$856.46

Smart Money Entry

68.8¢ → 60.5¢

-12% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 17 top traders (35%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes61%

No40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$28.7K

Total Shares42,175

Combined PnL$-2.2K

No11 traders

Total Value$16.8K

Total Shares44,474

Combined PnL+$3.1K

Yes — 35%No — 65%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

35% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (16 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 89% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 68¢	$16.3K	$15.3K	$-1.1K	50% 1411-1415 (2826)
RN1	Yesavg 68.7¢	$10.6K	$10.0K	-$685.79	58% 3761-2714 (6475)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 31.7¢	$6.9K	$8.2K	+$1.3K	25% 217-656 (873)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 30.1¢	$4.5K	$5.7K	+$1.3K	25% 218-645 (863)
SU sugar-super	Yesavg 73¢	$2.9K	$2.6K	-$360	0% 0-75 (75)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 30.4¢	$1.8K	$2.2K	+$416.08	25% 218-637 (855)
0X 0x7d3b7ff761d046f5dc1d972e8a755dc1eccf55b8	Yesavg 71¢	$976	$879.77	-$96.23	— 1-0 (1)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Yesavg 68.4¢	$657.65	$673.1	+$15.45	25% 216-657 (873)
└ No leg	Noavg 32.6¢	$290.08	$342.81	+$52.72
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 68.4¢	$367.56	$330.29	-$37.27
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 69.2¢	$507.17	$518.19	+$11.02	57% 1516-1167 (2683)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 69.2¢	$287.03	$265.54	-$21.49
└ No leg	Noavg 31.4¢	$220.14	$252.65	+$32.51
SE sentrioARB<$100	Yesavg 70.1¢	$274.68	$268.45	-$6.22	31% 170-384 (554)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 70.1¢	$210.88	$192.51	-$18.37
└ No leg	Noavg 30.2¢	$63.8	$75.95	+$12.15
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 28.8¢	$196.48	$231.39	+$47.05	49% 235-240 (475)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Noavg 28¢	$111.99	$143.99	+$32	9% 78-775 (853)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 29.4¢	$112.74	$137.29	+$24.54	44% 79-102 (181)
tradecraftCTR	Noavg 29.9¢	$84.03	$101.12	+$17.08	16% 112-570 (682)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Yesavg 68.7¢	$53.04	$49.43	-$3.61	61% 894-574 (1468)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$38.77	$46.52	+$7.75	60% 422-286 (708)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$18.38	$21.35	+$2.96	53% 5381-4862 (10243)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$8.06	$8.32	+$0.26	61% 630-411 (1041)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$5.18	$6.9	+$1.73	47% 148-167 (315)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Noavg 28.9¢	$0.87	$1.09	+$0.21	36% 344-620 (964)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$16,341.92

Value

$15.3K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

50%

1411-1415 (2826)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$10,646.26

Value

$10.0K

PnL

-$685.79

Record

58%

3761-2714 (6475)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$6,906.99

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

25%

217-656 (873)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$4,473.15

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

25%

218-645 (863)

sugar-super

Yes

Invested

$2,919.99

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$360

Record

0-75 (75)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$1,793.32

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$416.08

Record

25%

218-637 (855)

0x7d3b7ff761d046f5dc1d972e8a755dc1eccf55b8

Yes

Invested

$976

Value

$879.77

PnL

-$96.23

Record

—

1-0 (1)

VenusianARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$657.65

Value

$673.1

PnL

+$15.45

Record

25%

216-657 (873)

Both legs:

No$290.0832.6¢+$52.72

Yes$367.5668.4¢-$37.27

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$507.17

Value

$518.19

PnL

+$11.02

Record

57%

1516-1167 (2683)

Both legs:

Yes$287.0369.2¢-$21.49

No$220.1431.4¢+$32.51

sentrioARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$274.68

Value

$268.45

PnL

-$6.22

Record

31%

170-384 (554)

Both legs:

Yes$210.8870.1¢-$18.37

No$63.830.2¢+$12.15

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$196.48

Value

$231.39

PnL

+$47.05

Record

49%

235-240 (475)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Invested

$111.99

Value

$143.99

PnL

+$32

Record

78-775 (853)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$112.74

Value

$137.29

PnL

+$24.54

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

tradecraftCTR

Invested

$84.03

Value

$101.12

PnL

+$17.08

Record

16%

112-570 (682)

darkumbreon88<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.04

Value

$49.43

PnL

-$3.61

Record

61%

894-574 (1468)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR<$100

Invested

$38.77

Value

$46.52

PnL

+$7.75

Record

60%

422-286 (708)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$18.38

Value

$21.35

PnL

+$2.96

Record

53%

5381-4862 (10243)

lonmi2511<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.06

Value

$8.32

PnL

+$0.26

Record

61%

630-411 (1041)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$5.18

Value

$6.9

PnL

+$1.73

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Invested

$0.87

Value

$1.09

PnL

+$0.21

Record

36%

344-620 (964)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 17 top traders (35%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

35% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (16 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 89% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.