Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 2:59 PM ET?

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 81¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 11

Yes81¢No19¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.7K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 81¢

+61% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 16 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes81%

No19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$11.3K

Total Shares13,004

Combined PnL+$1.8K

No6 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares13,037

Combined PnL+$201.08

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
seal7	Yesavg 50.6¢	$3.4K	$3.8K	+$412.85	0% 0-77 (77)
smellyEllie	Yesavg 40.6¢	$1.4K	$2.7K	+$1.4K	— 0-7 (7)
TR troim	Yesavg 53.6¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$722.72	0% 0-332 (332)
Parz1vaICTR	Noavg 35.5¢	$4.5K	$1.2K	+$1.1K	72% 1106-420 (1526)
AL AlphaBetaGamma2357	Yesavg 60¢	$600	$810	+$210	— 0-5 (5)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Yesavg 55.9¢	$870.73	$807.46	-$63.27	84% 481-91 (572)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55.9¢	$443.02	$641.39	+$198.36
└ No leg	Noavg 48.9¢	$427.7	$166.07	-$261.63
HoshinoAI	Yesavg 56.5¢	$5.0K	$738.99	$-1.0K	— 10-8 (18)
Relaccsed	Yesavg 45.6¢	$551.5	$699	+$273.5	— 4-1 (5)
G.Hchen	Yesavg 61¢	$2.4K	$628.72	-$157.72	0% 0-96 (96)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Noavg 20.9¢	$417.61	$390	-$27.61	0% 1-266 (267)
PB pbshineCTR	Noavg 51.5¢	$1.1K	$357	-$724	— 0-3 (3)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR	Noavg 12¢	$176.58	$250.15	+$73.57	— 5-5 (10)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 22.9¢	$2.1K	$121.74	+$139.96	66% 4070-2088 (6158)
Haradwaith	Yesavg 83.5¢	$135.26	$117.4	-$3.54	60% 18-12 (30)
WA WarriorHARB<$100	Noavg 42.1¢	$302	$91.51	-$44.86	— 0-12 (12)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 60.3¢	$42.84	$57.51	+$7.45
└ No leg	Noavg 42.1¢	$84.25	$34	-$52.31
clazzy1CTR	Noavg 54.4¢	$1.0K	$83.66	-$337.69	0% 0-37 (37)
SU SulkingCryptoARB<$100	Noavg 45.6¢	$134.61	$82.68	-$21.69	— 1-9 (10)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 58.7¢	$44.06	$60.75	+$15.21
└ No leg	Noavg 45.6¢	$58.83	$21.93	-$36.9
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 65.1¢	$64.96	$69.03	+$4.07	41% 3040-4429 (7469)
balthazar<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$42.74	$60.74	+$18	50% 4547-4458 (9005)

seal7

Yes

Invested

$3,396.16

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$412.85

Record

0-77 (77)

smellyEllie

Yes

Invested

$1,367.78

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

—

0-7 (7)

troim

Yes

Invested

$1,608.38

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$722.72

Record

0-332 (332)

Parz1vaICTR

Invested

$4,491.85

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

72%

1106-420 (1526)

AlphaBetaGamma2357

Yes

Invested

$600

Value

$810

PnL

+$210

Record

—

0-5 (5)

PoligarchARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$870.73

Value

$807.46

PnL

-$63.27

Record

84%

481-91 (572)

Both legs:

Yes$443.0255.9¢+$198.36

No$427.748.9¢-$261.63

HoshinoAI

Yes

Invested

$5,028.36

Value

$738.99

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

—

10-8 (18)

Relaccsed

Yes

Invested

$551.5

Value

$699

PnL

+$273.5

Record

—

4-1 (5)

G.Hchen

Yes

Invested

$2,436.54

Value

$628.72

PnL

-$157.72

Record

0-96 (96)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Invested

$417.61

Value

$390

PnL

-$27.61

Record

1-266 (267)

pbshineCTR

Invested

$1,081

Value

$357

PnL

-$724

Record

—

0-3 (3)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR

Invested

$176.58

Value

$250.15

PnL

+$73.57

Record

—

5-5 (10)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$2,104.22

Value

$121.74

PnL

+$139.96

Record

66%

4070-2088 (6158)

Haradwaith

Yes

Invested

$135.26

Value

$117.4

PnL

-$3.54

Record

60%

18-12 (30)

WarriorHARB<$100

Invested

$302

Value

$91.51

PnL

-$44.86

Record

—

0-12 (12)

Both legs:

Yes$42.8460.3¢+$7.45

No$84.2542.1¢-$52.31

clazzy1CTR

Invested

$1,033

Value

$83.66

PnL

-$337.69

Record

0-37 (37)

SulkingCryptoARB<$100

Invested

$134.61

Value

$82.68

PnL

-$21.69

Record

—

1-9 (10)

Both legs:

Yes$44.0658.7¢+$15.21

No$58.8345.6¢-$36.9

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.96

Value

$69.03

PnL

+$4.07

Record

41%

3040-4429 (7469)

balthazar<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.74

Value

$60.74

PnL

+$18

Record

50%

4547-4458 (9005)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 16 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.