Will the Democratic Party win the CA-13 House seat?

8 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (42%) · Yes at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 4

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 42%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$127.58

Smart Money Entry

93.9¢ → 99.7¢

+6% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 19 top traders (42%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,448

Combined PnL-$36.23

No11 traders

Total Value$19.83

Total Shares1,191

Combined PnL+$163.8

Yes — 42%No — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

49h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 56% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 19

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI SitsToPee	Yesavg 94.8¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$19.62	59% 382-268 (650)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 94.8¢	$751.57	$486.87	+$17.99	53% 8051-7154 (15205)
CO cowcat	Yesavg 80.5¢	$38.65	$152.08	+$25.25	53% 1631-1463 (3094)
WA WarriorH	Yesavg 94.4¢	$116.12	$56.95	-$4.18	17% 1105-5456 (6561)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 93.8¢	$172.61	$51.34	+$12.78	45% 2525-3059 (5584)
AB ABC12345654321	Yesavg 94¢	$154.2	$7.92	-$68.29	50% 1748-1776 (3524)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 96.2¢	$4.8	$4.93	-$0.14	50% 20420-20739 (41159)
IW iWasEnough<$100	Yesavg 96.3¢	$5	$4.8	-$0.01	51% 11725-11123 (22848)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 0.2¢	$0.87	$4.45	+$121.97	40% 2104-3149 (5253)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Noavg 3.6¢	$7.67	$3.62	+$6.5	48% 6965-7593 (14558)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Noavg 8.2¢	$31.76	$3.59	+$16.6	51% 2210-2124 (4334)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 5.2¢	$17.41	$2.38	-$4.29	53% 28804-25713 (54517)
LP lpgbCTR	Noavg 5.7¢	$213.97	$1.87	-$6.24	26% 353-995 (1348)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Noavg 2.8¢	$7.56	$1.74	+$33.56	50% 9583-9583 (19166)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Noavg 4.3¢	$62.86	$1.32	-$1.53	24% 708-2191 (2899)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Noavg 4.9¢	$2.07	$0.71	-$1.39	49% 2633-2726 (5359)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 3.5¢	$1	$0.06	-$0.33	39% 992-1523 (2515)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 5.2¢	$3.77	$0.04	-$0.55	39% 1003-1586 (2589)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 4.9¢	$2.94	$0.04	-$0.5	38% 997-1606 (2603)

SitsToPee

Yes

Invested

$1,675

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$19.62

Record

59%

382-268 (650)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$751.57

Value

$486.87

PnL

+$17.99

Record

53%

8051-7154 (15205)

cowcat

Yes

Invested

$38.65

Value

$152.08

PnL

+$25.25

Record

53%

1631-1463 (3094)

WarriorH

Yes

Invested

$116.12

Value

$56.95

PnL

-$4.18

Record

17%

1105-5456 (6561)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$172.61

Value

$51.34

PnL

+$12.78

Record

45%

2525-3059 (5584)

ABC12345654321

Yes

Invested

$154.2

Value

$7.92

PnL

-$68.29

Record

50%

1748-1776 (3524)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.93

PnL

-$0.14

Record

50%

20420-20739 (41159)

iWasEnough<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

11725-11123 (22848)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$0.87

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$121.97

Record

40%

2104-3149 (5253)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Invested

$7.67

Value

$3.62

PnL

+$6.5

Record

48%

6965-7593 (14558)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Invested

$31.76

Value

$3.59

PnL

+$16.6

Record

51%

2210-2124 (4334)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$17.41

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$4.29

Record

53%

28804-25713 (54517)

lpgbCTR

Invested

$213.97

Value

$1.87

PnL

-$6.24

Record

26%

353-995 (1348)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Invested

$7.56

Value

$1.74

PnL

+$33.56

Record

50%

9583-9583 (19166)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Invested

$62.86

Value

$1.32

PnL

-$1.53

Record

24%

708-2191 (2899)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Invested

$2.07

Value

$0.71

PnL

-$1.39

Record

49%

2633-2726 (5359)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.33

Record

39%

992-1523 (2515)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$3.77

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.55

Record

39%

1003-1586 (2589)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$2.94

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.5

Record

38%

997-1606 (2603)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 19 top traders (42%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

49h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 56% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 19

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.