Will there be between 115m and 120m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?

17 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (94%) · No at 72¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 4

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 94%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$9.08

Smart Money Entry

73.1¢ → 71.7¢

-2% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 18 top traders (94%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares4,265

Combined PnL-$100.9

Yes1 trader

Total Value$413.97

Total Shares1,580

Combined PnL+$109.99

No — 94%Yes — 6%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

208h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

94% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000No 94% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 64.8¢	$752.5	$832.16	+$79.66	41% 3151-4506 (7657)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 74.8¢	$742.78	$698.98	-$43.81	53% 5758-5142 (10900)
Lucerys	Noavg 79.4¢	$497.49	$440.83	-$56.66	38% 3321-5397 (8718)
balthazar	Noavg 78.1¢	$476.18	$429.16	-$47.02	51% 4732-4556 (9288)
AZ AzariahJubyCTR	Yesavg 19.2¢	$303.98	$413.97	+$109.99	— 0-8 (8)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 69.9¢	$181.21	$182.4	+$1.19	31% 2830-6233 (9063)
NO northdrawer	Noavg 82¢	$173.08	$148.61	-$24.47	27% 939-2515 (3454)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 76.9¢	$117.39	$122.18	+$4.79	78% 598-168 (766)
└ No leg	Noavg 76.9¢	$90.42	$82.76	-$7.65
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20.3¢	$26.98	$39.42	+$12.44
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 66.8¢	$80.19	$84.48	+$4.29	25% 81-244 (325)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 79.8¢	$50.3	$44.35	-$5.94	53% 1614-1416 (3030)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 71.5¢	$39.63	$39.01	-$0.62	49% 412-428 (840)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 74.5¢	$24.66	$23.29	-$1.37	45% 446-539 (985)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 78.1¢	$23.43	$21.12	-$2.31	29% 883-2138 (3021)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 81.2¢	$23.91	$20.72	-$3.19	44% 427-535 (962)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 67.8¢	$18.71	$19.44	+$0.73	47% 436-490 (926)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 70.4¢	$11.67	$10.59	+$0.2	66% 4133-2163 (6296)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 76.6¢	$10.07	$9.26	-$0.81	42% 743-1014 (1757)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 72.8¢	$9.56	$9.24	-$0.32	50% 395-390 (785)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 79.7¢	$3.99	$3.52	-$0.46	79% 444-118 (562)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$752.5

Value

$832.16

PnL

+$79.66

Record

41%

3151-4506 (7657)

cigarettes

Invested

$742.78

Value

$698.98

PnL

-$43.81

Record

53%

5758-5142 (10900)

Lucerys

Invested

$497.49

Value

$440.83

PnL

-$56.66

Record

38%

3321-5397 (8718)

balthazar

Invested

$476.18

Value

$429.16

PnL

-$47.02

Record

51%

4732-4556 (9288)

AzariahJubyCTR

Yes

Invested

$303.98

Value

$413.97

PnL

+$109.99

Record

—

0-8 (8)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$181.21

Value

$182.4

PnL

+$1.19

Record

31%

2830-6233 (9063)

northdrawer

Invested

$173.08

Value

$148.61

PnL

-$24.47

Record

27%

939-2515 (3454)

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$117.39

Value

$122.18

PnL

+$4.79

Record

78%

598-168 (766)

Both legs:

No$90.4276.9¢-$7.65

Yes$26.9820.3¢+$12.44

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$80.19

Value

$84.48

PnL

+$4.29

Record

25%

81-244 (325)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$50.3

Value

$44.35

PnL

-$5.94

Record

53%

1614-1416 (3030)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$39.63

Value

$39.01

PnL

-$0.62

Record

49%

412-428 (840)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$24.66

Value

$23.29

PnL

-$1.37

Record

45%

446-539 (985)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$23.43

Value

$21.12

PnL

-$2.31

Record

29%

883-2138 (3021)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$23.91

Value

$20.72

PnL

-$3.19

Record

44%

427-535 (962)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$18.71

Value

$19.44

PnL

+$0.73

Record

47%

436-490 (926)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$11.67

Value

$10.59

PnL

+$0.2

Record

66%

4133-2163 (6296)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$10.07

Value

$9.26

PnL

-$0.81

Record

42%

743-1014 (1757)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$9.56

Value

$9.24

PnL

-$0.32

Record

50%

395-390 (785)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$3.99

Value

$3.52

PnL

-$0.46

Record

79%

444-118 (562)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 18 top traders (94%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

208h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

94% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000No 94% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.4%

71.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.