Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Elina Svitolina, while the market favors Mirra Andreeva (81%). 11 of 25 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

WTA Finals, Group B: Mirra Andreeva vs Elina Svitolina

11 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Elina Svitolina (44%) · Elina Svitolina at 20¢ · $41K held · ends Nov 16

Mirra Andreeva81¢Elina Svitolina19¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Elina Svitolina

Consensus Traders

Elina Svitolina 44%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$40.9K

Combined PnL

$-4.0K

Smart Money Entry

34.5¢ → 19.5¢

-44% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidElina Svitolina at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Elina Svitolina

11 of 25 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Mirra Andreeva 81%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mirra Andreeva81%

Elina Svitolina20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mirra Andreeva14 traders

Total Value$14.7K

Total Shares17,957

Combined PnL+$703.87

Elina Svitolina11 traders

Total Value$13.4K

Total Shares50,912

Combined PnL$-4.8K

Mirra Andreeva — 56%Elina Svitolina — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

81% of non-arb traders are on Elina Svitolina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleElina Svitolina 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperElina Svitolina 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrElina Svitolina 92% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Elina Svitolina 81% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Mirra Andreevaavg 74.6¢	$5.1K	$5.3K	+$190.35	39% 41-64 (105)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Elina Svitolinaavg 25.4¢	$5.3K	$5.2K	-$158.58	30% 105-246 (351)
└ Mirra Andreeva leg	Mirra Andreevaavg 68.9¢	$2.5K	$2.9K	+$385.77
└ Elina Svitolina leg	Elina Svitolinaavg 25.4¢	$2.8K	$2.3K	-$544.35
NO Novelty8CTR	Elina Svitolinaavg 34¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	+$60.44	1% 1-98 (99)
VE VenusianCTR	Elina Svitolinaavg 37.5¢	$8.1K	$4.2K	$-3.9K	23% 82-268 (350)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Mirra Andreevaavg 77.7¢	$4.4K	$3.7K	-$610.77	24% 90-282 (372)
└ Mirra Andreeva leg	Mirra Andreevaavg 77.7¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$109.2
└ Elina Svitolina leg	Elina Svitolinaavg 28.1¢	$2.1K	$1.4K	-$719.97
FL Flaznorp	Mirra Andreevaavg 66.3¢	$2.2K	$2.6K	+$444.39	52% 242-224 (466)
65 6512395314597884	Mirra Andreevaavg 65¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$18.27	48% 129-139 (268)
DA darkumbreon88	Mirra Andreevaavg 64¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$43.85	2% 7-311 (318)
WH whosay	Mirra Andreevaavg 77¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$11.67	— 2-1 (3)
RN1ARB<$100	Elina Svitolinaavg 35.3¢	$2.4K	$1.7K	-$726.22	54% 233-201 (434)
└ Mirra Andreeva leg	Mirra Andreevaavg 78¢	$837.9	$875.7	+$37.8
└ Elina Svitolina leg	Elina Svitolinaavg 35.3¢	$1.6K	$839.45	-$764.02
MA MadridTimeCTR	Elina Svitolinaavg 29.7¢	$2.2K	$1.3K	-$898.34	25% 86-262 (348)
TI timetowanderCTR	Elina Svitolinaavg 35¢	$962.5	$1.1K	+$123.75	14% 25-157 (182)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Elina Svitolinaavg 35.1¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$372.6	26% 87-252 (339)
└ Mirra Andreeva leg	Mirra Andreevaavg 70.6¢	$525.97	$614.29	+$88.32
└ Elina Svitolina leg	Elina Svitolinaavg 35.1¢	$919.51	$458.59	-$460.92
0X 0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893CTR	Elina Svitolinaavg 34¢	$1.0K	$975	-$45	2% 2-106 (108)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Elina Svitolinaavg 35¢	$906.91	$797.16	+$3.85	49% 60-63 (123)
└ Elina Svitolina leg	Elina Svitolinaavg 35¢	$476.47	$469.66	-$3.65
└ Mirra Andreeva leg	Mirra Andreevaavg 64¢	$320	$327.5	+$7.5
38 38791873984189	Mirra Andreevaavg 60.9¢	$567.59	$506.5	+$5.46	49% 383-404 (787)
EU EulhunterCTR	Elina Svitolinaavg 24.7¢	$604.71	$502	-$102.71	55% 34-28 (62)
GC GC-PCTR	Elina Svitolinaavg 35¢	$340	$345	+$5	5% 11-190 (201)
NM NM-PCTR	Elina Svitolinaavg 35¢	$339.99	$344.99	+$5	6% 11-164 (175)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Elina Svitolinaavg 32.4¢	$818.42	$290.98	-$131.64	25% 37-109 (146)
└ Elina Svitolina leg	Elina Svitolinaavg 32.4¢	$366.24	$209.35	-$146.77
└ Mirra Andreeva leg	Mirra Andreevaavg 70.7¢	$70.81	$81.63	+$15.13
SE sentrio	Mirra Andreevaavg 60¢	$201.05	$202.73	+$1.68	23% 49-165 (214)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Elina Svitolinaavg 35¢	$139.99	$137.99	-$2	5% 21-415 (436)
0xheavy888<$100	Mirra Andreevaavg 64¢	$78.72	$80.56	+$1.85	69% 29-13 (42)
PA pauleta23<$100	Mirra Andreevaavg 80¢	$63.16	$61.17	-$1.99	21% 60-222 (282)
OJ ojg<$100	Mirra Andreevaavg 81.5¢	$58.68	$58.68	-$0	33% 48-99 (147)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$5,065.86

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$190.35

Record

39%

41-64 (105)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$5,332.3

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$158.58

Record

30%

105-246 (351)

Both legs:

Mirra Andreeva$2,50268.9¢+$385.77

Elina Svitolina$2,830.325.4¢-$544.35

Novelty8CTR

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$4,377.59

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$60.44

Record

1-98 (99)

VenusianCTR

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$8,115.53

Value

$4.2K

PnL

$-3.9K

Record

23%

82-268 (350)

LimousinARB<$100

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$4,358.28

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$610.77

Record

24%

90-282 (372)

Both legs:

Mirra Andreeva$2,255.9677.7¢+$109.2

Elina Svitolina$2,102.3328.1¢-$719.97

Flaznorp

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$2,163.15

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$444.39

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

6512395314597884

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$2,090.23

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$18.27

Record

48%

129-139 (268)

darkumbreon88

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$1,870.87

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$43.85

Record

7-311 (318)

whosay

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$1,797.77

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$11.67

Record

—

2-1 (3)

RN1ARB<$100

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$2,441.37

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$726.22

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

Both legs:

Mirra Andreeva$837.978¢+$37.8

Elina Svitolina$1,603.4735.3¢-$764.02

MadridTimeCTR

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$2,230.62

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$898.34

Record

25%

86-262 (348)

timetowanderCTR

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$962.5

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$123.75

Record

14%

25-157 (182)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$1,445.48

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$372.6

Record

26%

87-252 (339)

Both legs:

Mirra Andreeva$525.9770.6¢+$88.32

Elina Svitolina$919.5135.1¢-$460.92

0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893CTR

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$1,020

Value

$975

PnL

-$45

Record

2-106 (108)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$906.91

Value

$797.16

PnL

+$3.85

Record

49%

60-63 (123)

Both legs:

Elina Svitolina$476.4735¢-$3.65

Mirra Andreeva$32064¢+$7.5

38791873984189

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$567.59

Value

$506.5

PnL

+$5.46

Record

49%

383-404 (787)

EulhunterCTR

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$604.71

Value

$502

PnL

-$102.71

Record

55%

34-28 (62)

GC-PCTR

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$340

Value

$345

PnL

+$5

Record

11-190 (201)

NM-PCTR

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$339.99

Value

$344.99

PnL

+$5

Record

11-164 (175)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$818.42

Value

$290.98

PnL

-$131.64

Record

25%

37-109 (146)

Both legs:

Elina Svitolina$366.2432.4¢-$146.77

Mirra Andreeva$70.8170.7¢+$15.13

sentrio

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$201.05

Value

$202.73

PnL

+$1.68

Record

23%

49-165 (214)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$139.99

Value

$137.99

PnL

-$2

Record

21-415 (436)

0xheavy888<$100

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$78.72

Value

$80.56

PnL

+$1.85

Record

69%

29-13 (42)

pauleta23<$100

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$63.16

Value

$61.17

PnL

-$1.99

Record

21%

60-222 (282)

ojg<$100

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$58.68

Value

$58.68

PnL

-$0

Record

33%

48-99 (147)

Research grade

AvoidElina Svitolina at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Elina Svitolina

11 of 25 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Mirra Andreeva 81%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

81% of non-arb traders are on Elina Svitolina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleElina Svitolina 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperElina Svitolina 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrElina Svitolina 92% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Elina Svitolina 81% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Elina Svitolina wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.3%

19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$369.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

469.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.