WTA Finals, Group A: Coco Gauff vs Linda Noskova

28 of 39 top Polymarket traders hold Linda Noskova (72%) · Linda Noskova at 96¢ · $446K held · ends Nov 17

Coco Gauff5¢Linda Noskova95¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Linda Noskova

Consensus Traders

Linda Noskova 72%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$446.2K

Combined PnL

$89.2K

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 95.5¢

+81% since entry · 28 traders

Research grade

NeutralLinda Noskova at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Linda Noskova

28 of 39 top traders (72%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Coco Gauff5%

Linda Noskova96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Linda Noskova28 traders

Total Value$394.2K

Total Shares422,497

Combined PnL+$169.0K

Coco Gauff11 traders

Total Value$30.8K

Total Shares172,889

Combined PnL$-79.8K

Linda Noskova — 72%Coco Gauff — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robustmst	Linda Noskovaavg 38.8¢	$102.7K	$175.5K	+$138.6K	47% 110-123 (233)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Linda Noskovaavg 87.4¢	$41.7K	$35.9K	$-5.8K	54% 1644-1413 (3057)
RN1	Linda Noskovaavg 61.1¢	$28.9K	$31.8K	+$2.9K	58% 3770-2728 (6498)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Linda Noskovaavg 64.9¢	$29.2K	$29.4K	+$184.08	56% 3814-2983 (6797)
MA MadridTime	Linda Noskovaavg 56.4¢	$16.9K	$27.1K	+$10.3K	26% 233-650 (883)
LI Limousin	Linda Noskovaavg 59.8¢	$18.0K	$22.3K	+$4.4K	26% 231-671 (902)
VE Venusian	Linda Noskovaavg 55.8¢	$14.3K	$19.2K	+$5.0K	25% 227-676 (903)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Coco Gauffavg 61¢	$38.0K	$16.5K	$-21.5K	51% 3676-3502 (7178)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Coco Gauffavg 52.6¢	$38.9K	$15.3K	$-23.6K	50% 1432-1432 (2864)
└ Linda Noskova leg	Linda Noskovaavg 70.5¢	$9.1K	$12.2K	+$3.1K
└ Coco Gauff leg	Coco Gauffavg 52.6¢	$29.8K	$3.1K	$-26.7K
TH thirdt1me	Linda Noskovaavg 87.3¢	$12.8K	$9.8K	$-1.0K	41% 90-128 (218)
VE VetchCTR	Coco Gauffavg 61¢	$7.3K	$5.5K	$-1.8K	0% 0-49 (49)
JU Justluck9	Linda Noskovaavg 37¢	$2.9K	$5.4K	+$2.5K	4% 6-151 (157)
TI timetowander	Linda Noskovaavg 51.4¢	$3.1K	$5.3K	+$2.2K	45% 348-427 (775)
tradecraft	Linda Noskovaavg 60¢	$3.4K	$5.2K	+$1.8K	18% 124-583 (707)
MA MastermoneyCTR	Coco Gauffavg 63.5¢	$37.7K	$5.0K	$-32.6K	1% 1-125 (126)
38 38791873984189	Linda Noskovaavg 64.1¢	$6.8K	$4.6K	-$279.38	48% 937-1010 (1947)
EL elenaarybakin21	Linda Noskovaavg 37.9¢	$3.0K	$4.6K	+$4.3K	2% 2-127 (129)
EU Eulhunter	Linda Noskovaavg 57.7¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$54.12	51% 78-75 (153)
LI LightParadox	Linda Noskovaavg 86.7¢	$3.9K	$3.3K	-$640.6	26% 232-661 (893)
TH thestingsnake	Linda Noskovaavg 50.3¢	$2.1K	$3.1K	+$1.4K	20% 91-354 (445)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Coco Gauffavg 54.3¢	$29.8K	$2.3K	$-23.8K	51% 3171-3070 (6241)
BA babybells	Linda Noskovaavg 80.1¢	$2.6K	$2.1K	-$45.84	20% 96-383 (479)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Coco Gauffavg 60.8¢	$2.2K	$1.8K	+$119.43	50% 260-256 (516)
└ Linda Noskova leg	Linda Noskovaavg 37.2¢	$744	$1.1K	+$340
└ Coco Gauff leg	Coco Gauffavg 60.8¢	$912.18	$690	-$220.57
0X 0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893	Linda Noskovaavg 39¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$450	2% 4-256 (260)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Coco Gauffavg 61.2¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$91.77	60% 3442-2337 (5779)
└ Linda Noskova leg	Linda Noskovaavg 37.9¢	$691.06	$984.55	+$293.49
└ Coco Gauff leg	Coco Gauffavg 61.2¢	$810.4	$608.69	-$201.72

robustmst

Linda Noskova

Invested

$102,730.84

Value

$175.5K

PnL

+$138.6K

Record

47%

110-123 (233)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Linda Noskova

Invested

$41,671.02

Value

$35.9K

PnL

$-5.8K

Record

54%

1644-1413 (3057)

RN1

Linda Noskova

Invested

$28,892.53

Value

$31.8K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

58%

3770-2728 (6498)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Linda Noskova

Invested

$29,223.12

Value

$29.4K

PnL

+$184.08

Record

56%

3814-2983 (6797)

MadridTime

Linda Noskova

Invested

$16,869.16

Value

$27.1K

PnL

+$10.3K

Record

26%

233-650 (883)

Limousin

Linda Noskova

Invested

$17,970.54

Value

$22.3K

PnL

+$4.4K

Record

26%

231-671 (902)

Venusian

Linda Noskova

Invested

$14,330.36

Value

$19.2K

PnL

+$5.0K

Record

25%

227-676 (903)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Coco Gauff

Invested

$37,951.56

Value

$16.5K

PnL

$-21.5K

Record

51%

3676-3502 (7178)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Coco Gauff

Invested

$38,886.04

Value

$15.3K

PnL

$-23.6K

Record

50%

1432-1432 (2864)

Both legs:

Linda Noskova$9,077.3570.5¢+$3.1K

Coco Gauff$29,782.3852.6¢$-26.7K

thirdt1me

Linda Noskova

Invested

$12,777.29

Value

$9.8K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

41%

90-128 (218)

VetchCTR

Coco Gauff

Invested

$7,319.99

Value

$5.5K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

0-49 (49)

Justluck9

Linda Noskova

Invested

$2,913.02

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

6-151 (157)

timetowander

Linda Noskova

Invested

$3,082.91

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

45%

348-427 (775)

tradecraft

Linda Noskova

Invested

$3,381.15

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

18%

124-583 (707)

MastermoneyCTR

Coco Gauff

Invested

$37,673.1

Value

$5.0K

PnL

$-32.6K

Record

1-125 (126)

38791873984189

Linda Noskova

Invested

$6,801.29

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$279.38

Record

48%

937-1010 (1947)

elenaarybakin21

Linda Noskova

Invested

$3,030

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

2-127 (129)

Eulhunter

Linda Noskova

Invested

$3,280.25

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$54.12

Record

51%

78-75 (153)

LightParadox

Linda Noskova

Invested

$3,899.51

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$640.6

Record

26%

232-661 (893)

thestingsnake

Linda Noskova

Invested

$2,098.51

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

20%

91-354 (445)

6512395314597884CTR

Coco Gauff

Invested

$29,805.31

Value

$2.3K

PnL

$-23.8K

Record

51%

3171-3070 (6241)

babybells

Linda Noskova

Invested

$2,579.33

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$45.84

Record

20%

96-383 (479)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Coco Gauff

Invested

$2,170.63

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$119.43

Record

50%

260-256 (516)

Both legs:

Linda Noskova$74437.2¢+$340

Coco Gauff$912.1860.8¢-$220.57

0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893

Linda Noskova

Invested

$1,170

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$450

Record

4-256 (260)

NM-PARB<$100

Coco Gauff

Invested

$1,501.46

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$91.77

Record

60%

3442-2337 (5779)

Both legs:

Linda Noskova$691.0637.9¢+$293.49

Coco Gauff$810.461.2¢-$201.72

Research grade

NeutralLinda Noskova at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).

Smart Money Signal

Linda Noskova

28 of 39 top traders (72%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Linda Noskova wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.