Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Claire Liu vs Tatiana Prozorova

31 of 39 top Polymarket traders hold Claire Liu (79%) · Claire Liu at 91¢ · $226K held · ends Nov 9

Claire Liu91¢Tatiana Prozorova9¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Claire Liu

Consensus Traders

Claire Liu 79%

Total Value

$225.6K

Combined PnL

$4.62

Smart Money Entry

79.4¢ → 90.5¢

+14% since entry · 31 traders

Research grade

Research candidateClaire Liu at 91%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Claire Liu

31 of 39 top traders (79%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Claire Liu91%

Tatiana Prozorova10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Claire Liu31 traders

Total Value$211.4K

Total Shares224,300

Combined PnL+$26.6K

Tatiana Prozorova8 traders

Total Value$14.3K

Total Shares206,927

Combined PnL$-26.6K

Claire Liu — 79%Tatiana Prozorova — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+34 pts consensus

Breadth

30 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

81% of non-arb traders are on Claire Liu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClaire Liu 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpClaire Liu 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrClaire Liu 76% · 25

Aligned

Hand-pickedClaire Liu 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Claire Liu 83% · 36

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Claire Liuavg 77.9¢	$45.2K	$52.1K	+$7.6K	54% 58111-50353 (108464)
UP UpTheBlues	Claire Liuavg 83¢	$44.9K	$49.4K	+$4.5K	58% 48497-34660 (83157)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Claire Liuavg 79.5¢	$32.2K	$37.6K	+$6.1K	48% 1149-1258 (2407)
FL Flaznorp	Claire Liuavg 81¢	$21.2K	$23.4K	+$2.2K	51% 17602-16613 (34215)
NA Nathan8sCTR	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 18.3¢	$34.2K	$13.1K	$-18.3K	13% 3-21 (24)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Claire Liuavg 78.2¢	$6.8K	$7.0K	+$226.33	52% 5697-5265 (10962)
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584	Claire Liuavg 43¢	$3.0K	$6.4K	+$3.4K	54% 190-164 (354)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Claire Liuavg 85.7¢	$6.2K	$6.3K	+$109.79	52% 14022-12784 (26806)
NO NotJump	Claire Liuavg 84.6¢	$5.0K	$4.8K	-$202.76	43% 7723-10448 (18171)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Claire Liuavg 80¢	$3.6K	$4.2K	+$586.9	51% 1590-1531 (3121)
tradecraft	Claire Liuavg 84.3¢	$2.8K	$3.1K	+$339.94	51% 6149-5871 (12020)
TRCM	Claire Liuavg 85¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$240	55% 3972-3204 (7176)
EU Eulhunter	Claire Liuavg 76.5¢	$2.2K	$2.7K	+$459.84	54% 5901-4950 (10851)
TH thestingsnake	Claire Liuavg 85.2¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$61.44	60% 4143-2783 (6926)
SM smithagent	Claire Liuavg 80.7¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$233	48% 3289-3579 (6868)
LA lavendergooms	Claire Liuavg 76¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$294.37	52% 2649-2401 (5050)
38 38791873984189	Claire Liuavg 83.5¢	$3.1K	$1.4K	+$2.05	47% 12949-14528 (27477)
1L 1lovejump	Claire Liuavg 78.1¢	$3.0K	$1.1K	+$100.38	53% 675-604 (1279)
heyboy800	Claire Liuavg 75.1¢	$800	$990.63	+$190.63	61% 989-631 (1620)
HRTrading	Claire Liuavg 84.9¢	$628.5	$669.94	+$41.44	53% 6367-5753 (12120)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 43¢	$4.3K	$600	$-3.7K	46% 390-450 (840)
poshposh	Claire Liuavg 83.3¢	$440.26	$491.71	+$51.45	58% 11420-8276 (19696)
SH shiifoo	Claire Liuavg 76¢	$380	$465	+$85	59% 3551-2461 (6012)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Claire Liuavg 81¢	$404.99	$464.99	+$60	59% 30966-21686 (52652)
0X 0xF8164A94e27CdCeD0cC975e21308fB099B2D0433-1772692168144CTR	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 57¢	$3.1K	$325.39	$-2.8K	38% 162-260 (422)

RN1

Claire Liu

Invested

$45,246.1

Value

$52.1K

PnL

+$7.6K

Record

54%

58111-50353 (108464)

UpTheBlues

Claire Liu

Invested

$44,885.91

Value

$49.4K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

58%

48497-34660 (83157)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Claire Liu

Invested

$32,154.04

Value

$37.6K

PnL

+$6.1K

Record

48%

1149-1258 (2407)

Flaznorp

Claire Liu

Invested

$21,169.05

Value

$23.4K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

51%

17602-16613 (34215)

Nathan8sCTR

Tatiana Prozorova

Invested

$34,190.31

Value

$13.1K

PnL

$-18.3K

Record

13%

3-21 (24)

CandleHammerDrums

Claire Liu

Invested

$6,768.26

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$226.33

Record

52%

5697-5265 (10962)

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584

Claire Liu

Invested

$2,961.82

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

54%

190-164 (354)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Claire Liu

Invested

$6,226.15

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$109.79

Record

52%

14022-12784 (26806)

NotJump

Claire Liu

Invested

$4,972.07

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$202.76

Record

43%

7723-10448 (18171)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Claire Liu

Invested

$3,616.7

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$586.9

Record

51%

1590-1531 (3121)

tradecraft

Claire Liu

Invested

$2,809.69

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$339.94

Record

51%

6149-5871 (12020)

TRCM

Claire Liu

Invested

$2,550

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$240

Record

55%

3972-3204 (7176)

Eulhunter

Claire Liu

Invested

$2,210.46

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$459.84

Record

54%

5901-4950 (10851)

thestingsnake

Claire Liu

Invested

$2,382.12

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$61.44

Record

60%

4143-2783 (6926)

smithagent

Claire Liu

Invested

$1,534

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$233

Record

48%

3289-3579 (6868)

lavendergooms

Claire Liu

Invested

$1,343

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$294.37

Record

52%

2649-2401 (5050)

38791873984189

Claire Liu

Invested

$3,122.06

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$2.05

Record

47%

12949-14528 (27477)

1lovejump

Claire Liu

Invested

$2,999.52

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$100.38

Record

53%

675-604 (1279)

heyboy800

Claire Liu

Invested

$800

Value

$990.63

PnL

+$190.63

Record

61%

989-631 (1620)

HRTrading

Claire Liu

Invested

$628.5

Value

$669.94

PnL

+$41.44

Record

53%

6367-5753 (12120)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Tatiana Prozorova

Invested

$4,300

Value

$600

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

46%

390-450 (840)

poshposh

Claire Liu

Invested

$440.26

Value

$491.71

PnL

+$51.45

Record

58%

11420-8276 (19696)

shiifoo

Claire Liu

Invested

$380

Value

$465

PnL

+$85

Record

59%

3551-2461 (6012)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Claire Liu

Invested

$404.99

Value

$464.99

PnL

+$60

Record

59%

30966-21686 (52652)

0xF8164A94e27CdCeD0cC975e21308fB099B2D0433-1772692168144CTR

Tatiana Prozorova

Invested

$3,091.21

Value

$325.39

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

38%

162-260 (422)

Research grade

Research candidateClaire Liu at 91%

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Claire Liu

31 of 39 top traders (79%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+34 pts consensus

Breadth

30 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

81% of non-arb traders are on Claire Liu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClaire Liu 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpClaire Liu 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrClaire Liu 76% · 25

Aligned

Hand-pickedClaire Liu 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Claire Liu 83% · 36

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Claire Liu wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.