Sopo: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Veronika Erjavec

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Elizabeth Mandlik (54%) · Elizabeth Mandlik at 52¢ · $35K held · ends Nov 16

Elizabeth Mandlik52¢Veronika Erjavec48¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Elizabeth Mandlik

Consensus Traders

Elizabeth Mandlik 54%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$34.6K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

45.1¢ → 51.5¢

+14% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralElizabeth Mandlik at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Elizabeth Mandlik

7 of 13 top traders (54%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Elizabeth Mandlik52%

Veronika Erjavec49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Elizabeth Mandlik7 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares15,588

Combined PnL-$526.3

Veronika Erjavec6 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares12,796

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Elizabeth Mandlik — 54%Veronika Erjavec — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 52¢	$12.2K	$11.2K	-$985.67	—
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 52¢	$7.9K	$6.8K	$-1.1K
└ Veronika Erjavec leg	Veronika Erjavecavg 53.5¢	$4.3K	$4.5K	+$160.87
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 45¢	$6.6K	$6.5K	-$513.79	—
LI LimousinCTR	Veronika Erjavecavg 39.4¢	$4.3K	$6.0K	+$2.0K	—
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Veronika Erjavecavg 51.4¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$106.45	—
└ Veronika Erjavec leg	Veronika Erjavecavg 51.4¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$94.04
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 45.7¢	$683.13	$695.55	+$12.41
VE VenusianARB<$100	Veronika Erjavecavg 50.9¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$79.49	—
└ Veronika Erjavec leg	Veronika Erjavecavg 50.9¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$100.94
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 51.4¢	$985.31	$1.0K	+$21.46
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 56.6¢	$1.9K	$1.3K	-$94.52	—
└ Veronika Erjavec leg	Veronika Erjavecavg 39.1¢	$449.44	$637.36	+$173.73
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 56.6¢	$780.55	$613.8	-$268.25
LI LightParadoxCTR	Veronika Erjavecavg 37¢	$902.29	$1.2K	+$305.77	—
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 58.9¢	$1.1K	$831.56	-$220.84	—
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 58.9¢	$879.75	$649.51	-$230.24
└ Veronika Erjavec leg	Veronika Erjavecavg 53.2¢	$171.56	$182.05	+$9.39
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Veronika Erjavecavg 61¢	$540.27	$551.46	-$33.99	—
└ Veronika Erjavec leg	Veronika Erjavecavg 61¢	$306.21	$278.6	-$72.79
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 47.2¢	$289.25	$272.86	+$38.79
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Veronika Erjavecavg 48.2¢	$1.2K	$442.47	-$43.19	—
└ Veronika Erjavec leg	Veronika Erjavecavg 48.2¢	$270.84	$311.65	+$26.94
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 58.2¢	$171.09	$130.82	-$70.14
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 49.1¢	$217.04	$218.93	+$1.89	—
└ Veronika Erjavec leg	Veronika Erjavecavg 49.9¢	$107.65	$119.75	+$12.11
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 49.1¢	$109.39	$99.17	-$10.22
EU EulhunterCTR	Veronika Erjavecavg 42.5¢	$159.17	$195.32	+$35.99	—
tradecraft	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 45.2¢	$192.35	$193.83	+$1.48	—
machinelearnedARB<$100	Veronika Erjavecavg 44.1¢	$121.06	$120.13	-$0.92	—
└ Veronika Erjavec leg	Veronika Erjavecavg 44.1¢	$61.8	$77.7	+$15.9
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 62.1¢	$59.26	$42.43	-$16.82
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 47¢	$117.5	$111.25	-$6.25	—
nigiri99<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 49¢	$68.11	$70.2	+$2.09	45% 14909-18248 (33157)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Veronika Erjavecavg 56.6¢	$79.66	$66.89	-$8.54	—
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Veronika Erjavecavg 51¢	$26.62	$25.83	-$0.78	56% 9043-7128 (16171)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 54.9¢	$25.75	$23.85	-$1.89	—
OJ ojg<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 62¢	$24.8	$17.8	-$8.2	—
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Veronika Erjavecavg 43¢	$23.48	$17	+$5.07	—
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 39¢	$1.95	$2.23	+$0.28	—

RN1ARB<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$12,230.35

Value

$11.2K

PnL

-$985.67

Record

—

Both legs:

Elizabeth Mandlik$7,919.3652¢$-1.1K

Veronika Erjavec$4,310.9953.5¢+$160.87

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$6,606.12

Value

$6.5K

PnL

-$513.79

Record

—

LimousinCTR

Veronika Erjavec

Invested

$4,300.93

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

—

MadridTimeARB<$100

Veronika Erjavec

Invested

$2,935.88

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$106.45

Record

—

Both legs:

Veronika Erjavec$2,252.7551.4¢+$94.04

Elizabeth Mandlik$683.1345.7¢+$12.41

VenusianARB<$100

Veronika Erjavec

Invested

$2,510.4

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$79.49

Record

—

Both legs:

Veronika Erjavec$1,525.0950.9¢-$100.94

Elizabeth Mandlik$985.3151.4¢+$21.46

38791873984189ARB<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$1,873.8

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$94.52

Record

—

Both legs:

Veronika Erjavec$449.4439.1¢+$173.73

Elizabeth Mandlik$780.5556.6¢-$268.25

LightParadoxCTR

Veronika Erjavec

Invested

$902.29

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$305.77

Record

—

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$1,099.85

Value

$831.56

PnL

-$220.84

Record

—

Both legs:

Elizabeth Mandlik$879.7558.9¢-$230.24

Veronika Erjavec$171.5653.2¢+$9.39

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Veronika Erjavec

Invested

$540.27

Value

$551.46

PnL

-$33.99

Record

—

Both legs:

Veronika Erjavec$306.2161¢-$72.79

Elizabeth Mandlik$289.2547.2¢+$38.79

1lovejumpARB<$100

Veronika Erjavec

Invested

$1,165.54

Value

$442.47

PnL

-$43.19

Record

—

Both legs:

Veronika Erjavec$270.8448.2¢+$26.94

Elizabeth Mandlik$171.0958.2¢-$70.14

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$217.04

Value

$218.93

PnL

+$1.89

Record

—

Both legs:

Veronika Erjavec$107.6549.9¢+$12.11

Elizabeth Mandlik$109.3949.1¢-$10.22

EulhunterCTR

Veronika Erjavec

Invested

$159.17

Value

$195.32

PnL

+$35.99

Record

—

tradecraft

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$192.35

Value

$193.83

PnL

+$1.48

Record

—

machinelearnedARB<$100

Veronika Erjavec

Invested

$121.06

Value

$120.13

PnL

-$0.92

Record

—

Both legs:

Veronika Erjavec$61.844.1¢+$15.9

Elizabeth Mandlik$59.2662.1¢-$16.82

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$117.5

Value

$111.25

PnL

-$6.25

Record

—

nigiri99<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$68.11

Value

$70.2

PnL

+$2.09

Record

45%

14909-18248 (33157)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Veronika Erjavec

Invested

$79.66

Value

$66.89

PnL

-$8.54

Record

—

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Veronika Erjavec

Invested

$26.62

Value

$25.83

PnL

-$0.78

Record

56%

9043-7128 (16171)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$25.75

Value

$23.85

PnL

-$1.89

Record

—

ojg<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$24.8

Value

$17.8

PnL

-$8.2

Record

—

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Veronika Erjavec

Invested

$23.48

Value

$17

PnL

+$5.07

Record

—

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$1.95

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.28

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralElizabeth Mandlik at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Elizabeth Mandlik

7 of 13 top traders (54%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Elizabeth Mandlik wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.