Cali: Despina Papamichail vs Renata Zarazua

14 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Renata Zarazua (78%) · Renata Zarazua at 81¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 11

Despina Papamichail20¢Renata Zarazua80¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Renata Zarazua

Consensus Traders

Renata Zarazua 78%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

-$197.07

Smart Money Entry

76.5¢ → 80.5¢

+5% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralRenata Zarazua at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Renata Zarazua

14 of 18 top traders (78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Despina Papamichail20%

Renata Zarazua81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Renata Zarazua14 traders

Total Value$9.7K

Total Shares12,790

Combined PnL-$183.88

Despina Papamichail4 traders

Total Value$120.39

Total Shares430

Combined PnL-$13.18

Renata Zarazua — 78%Despina Papamichail — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Renata Zarazuaavg 79.3¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$80.17	53% 60065-52434 (112499)
MA MadridTime	Renata Zarazuaavg 76.6¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	-$142.75	51% 1095-1048 (2143)
FL Flaznorp	Renata Zarazuaavg 67.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$74.83	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
LI LightParadox	Renata Zarazuaavg 84.3¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$172.45	52% 1149-1045 (2194)
VeryLucky888	Renata Zarazuaavg 82¢	$678.6	$674.46	-$4.14	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
TH thestingsnake	Renata Zarazuaavg 67.5¢	$572.29	$515.25	+$52.92	60% 4352-2914 (7266)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Renata Zarazuaavg 73.1¢	$326.83	$374.4	+$47.57	54% 1193-1031 (2224)
└ Despina Papamichail leg	Despina Papamichailavg 23.3¢	$129.89	$203.33	+$73.43
└ Renata Zarazua leg	Renata Zarazuaavg 73.1¢	$196.93	$171.07	-$25.86
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Renata Zarazuaavg 71¢	$289.17	$331.71	+$42.53	46% 1395-1652 (3047)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Renata Zarazuaavg 86.5¢	$578.13	$234.98	-$31.18	52% 738-674 (1412)
└ Renata Zarazua leg	Renata Zarazuaavg 86.5¢	$205.79	$172.51	-$84.17
└ Despina Papamichail leg	Despina Papamichailavg 23¢	$52.31	$62.47	+$52.99
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Renata Zarazuaavg 82¢	$245.07	$218.29	+$14.76	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
└ Renata Zarazua leg	Renata Zarazuaavg 82¢	$151.29	$148.48	-$1.35
└ Despina Papamichail leg	Despina Papamichailavg 15¢	$53.7	$69.81	+$16.11
EU Eulhunter	Renata Zarazuaavg 67.5¢	$158.74	$191.61	+$32.87	54% 6181-5226 (11407)
VE VenusianCTR	Despina Papamichailavg 30.5¢	$118.62	$107.11	-$11.51	52% 1162-1079 (2241)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Renata Zarazuaavg 71¢	$78.16	$75.35	-$2.8	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Renata Zarazuaavg 79.4¢	$49.2	$50.53	+$1.33	57% 19076-14112 (33188)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Renata Zarazuaavg 66¢	$16.5	$20.38	+$3.88	65% 5174-2807 (7981)
SC SchruteBucks<$100	Renata Zarazuaavg 76.6¢	$11.49	$12.08	+$0.59	56% 1926-1490 (3416)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Despina Papamichailavg 35.9¢	$12.44	$10.5	-$1.94	51% 6278-6033 (12311)
TRCM<$100	Renata Zarazuaavg 75.9¢	$7.11	$5.92	-$1.18	55% 4029-3248 (7277)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Renata Zarazuaavg 82¢	$4.1	$4.07	-$0.03	52% 8584-7828 (16412)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Despina Papamichailavg 15.6¢	$1.56	$1.85	+$0.29	59% 31875-22502 (54377)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Despina Papamichailavg 19¢	$0.95	$0.93	-$0.02	74% 2423-864 (3287)

RN1

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$2,963.6

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$80.17

Record

53%

60065-52434 (112499)

MadridTime

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$2,656.81

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$142.75

Record

51%

1095-1048 (2143)

Flaznorp

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$1,238.52

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$74.83

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

LightParadox

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$1,288.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$172.45

Record

52%

1149-1045 (2194)

VeryLucky888

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$678.6

Value

$674.46

PnL

-$4.14

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

thestingsnake

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$572.29

Value

$515.25

PnL

+$52.92

Record

60%

4352-2914 (7266)

LimousinARB<$100

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$326.83

Value

$374.4

PnL

+$47.57

Record

54%

1193-1031 (2224)

Both legs:

Despina Papamichail$129.8923.3¢+$73.43

Renata Zarazua$196.9373.1¢-$25.86

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$289.17

Value

$331.71

PnL

+$42.53

Record

46%

1395-1652 (3047)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$578.13

Value

$234.98

PnL

-$31.18

Record

52%

738-674 (1412)

Both legs:

Renata Zarazua$205.7986.5¢-$84.17

Despina Papamichail$52.3123¢+$52.99

38791873984189ARB<$100

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$245.07

Value

$218.29

PnL

+$14.76

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

Both legs:

Renata Zarazua$151.2982¢-$1.35

Despina Papamichail$53.715¢+$16.11

Eulhunter

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$158.74

Value

$191.61

PnL

+$32.87

Record

54%

6181-5226 (11407)

VenusianCTR

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$118.62

Value

$107.11

PnL

-$11.51

Record

52%

1162-1079 (2241)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$78.16

Value

$75.35

PnL

-$2.8

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

BillBenter2026<$100

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$49.2

Value

$50.53

PnL

+$1.33

Record

57%

19076-14112 (33188)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$16.5

Value

$20.38

PnL

+$3.88

Record

65%

5174-2807 (7981)

SchruteBucks<$100

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$11.49

Value

$12.08

PnL

+$0.59

Record

56%

1926-1490 (3416)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$12.44

Value

$10.5

PnL

-$1.94

Record

51%

6278-6033 (12311)

TRCM<$100

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$7.11

Value

$5.92

PnL

-$1.18

Record

55%

4029-3248 (7277)

ameisgoat11<$100

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.07

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

8584-7828 (16412)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$1.56

Value

$1.85

PnL

+$0.29

Record

59%

31875-22502 (54377)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$0.95

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$0.02

Record

74%

2423-864 (3287)

Research grade

NeutralRenata Zarazua at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Renata Zarazua

14 of 18 top traders (78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Renata Zarazua wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.