Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Tereza Valentova vs Alexandra Eala

21 of 36 top Polymarket traders hold Alexandra Eala (58%) · Alexandra Eala at 85¢ · $208K held · ends Nov 12

Tereza Valentova16¢Alexandra Eala84¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alexandra Eala

Consensus Traders

Alexandra Eala 58%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$207.6K

Combined PnL

$-7.5K

Smart Money Entry

72.4¢ → 84.5¢

+17% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlexandra Eala at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alexandra Eala

21 of 36 top traders (58%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Tereza Valentova16%

Alexandra Eala85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alexandra Eala21 traders

Total Value$145.2K

Total Shares189,146

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Tereza Valentova15 traders

Total Value$34.8K

Total Shares130,809

Combined PnL$-5.1K

Alexandra Eala — 58%Tereza Valentova — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

67% of non-arb traders are on Alexandra Eala. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAlexandra Eala 60% · 10

Aligned

sharpTereza Valentova 71% · 7

Diverging

ctrAlexandra Eala 68% · 22

Aligned

Hand-pickedAlexandra Eala 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Alexandra Eala 66% · 32

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
99 999585	Alexandra Ealaavg 80.3¢	$55.8K	$44.5K	$-11.3K	85% 69-12 (81)
RN1	Alexandra Ealaavg 71.6¢	$30.3K	$32.8K	+$2.4K	53% 61305-53625 (114930)
65 6512395314597884	Alexandra Ealaavg 67¢	$18.8K	$22.0K	+$4.0K	51% 4751-4621 (9372)
KU Kunkun111CTR	Tereza Valentovaavg 27¢	$22.6K	$17.2K	$-5.4K	46% 11-13 (24)
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	Alexandra Ealaavg 78.9¢	$17.8K	$16.4K	$-1.3K	42% 7981-11170 (19151)
└ Alexandra Eala leg	Alexandra Ealaavg 78.9¢	$11.7K	$12.6K	+$831.34
└ Tereza Valentova leg	Tereza Valentovaavg 24.2¢	$6.0K	$3.9K	$-2.2K
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Alexandra Ealaavg 62¢	$12.4K	$12.8K	+$400	53% 655-578 (1233)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Alexandra Ealaavg 80.1¢	$8.5K	$7.5K	$-1.1K	50% 1303-1289 (2592)
└ Alexandra Eala leg	Alexandra Ealaavg 80.1¢	$4.5K	$4.6K	+$79.81
└ Tereza Valentova leg	Tereza Valentovaavg 26¢	$4.0K	$2.9K	$-1.2K
FL Flaznorp	Alexandra Ealaavg 75.3¢	$5.0K	$5.3K	+$358.4	51% 25682-24404 (50086)
LI Limousin	Alexandra Ealaavg 70.6¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$146.08	53% 1403-1251 (2654)
MR MrBently	Alexandra Ealaavg 63.1¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	+$68.23	52% 584-535 (1119)
tradecraft	Alexandra Ealaavg 63.2¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$91.6	51% 6327-6114 (12441)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Tereza Valentovaavg 25.7¢	$2.7K	$3.8K	+$1.1K	46% 1526-1799 (3325)
nigiri99CTR	Tereza Valentovaavg 39.2¢	$3.9K	$3.7K	-$115.99	46% 8575-10208 (18783)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Alexandra Ealaavg 77.2¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$33.36	52% 14323-13084 (27407)
DV dv-pmCTR	Tereza Valentovaavg 38.2¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	-$15.21	49% 3323-3513 (6836)
38 38791873984189	Alexandra Ealaavg 71.7¢	$3.5K	$2.7K	+$193.97	48% 61012-65825 (126837)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Tereza Valentovaavg 37.9¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$119.52	50% 538-535 (1073)
1L 1lovejump	Alexandra Ealaavg 64.3¢	$2.2K	$1.8K	+$164.02	52% 770-697 (1467)
FY fydi	Alexandra Ealaavg 62¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$410	50% 338-338 (676)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Tereza Valentovaavg 36.7¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$15.5	52% 1358-1276 (2634)
TH thestingsnake	Alexandra Ealaavg 62.7¢	$1.9K	$1.4K	+$202.03	60% 4420-2961 (7381)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Alexandra Ealaavg 63.2¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$343.9	49% 4036-4154 (8190)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Tereza Valentovaavg 31¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$44.04	51% 1365-1324 (2689)
└ Tereza Valentova leg	Tereza Valentovaavg 31¢	$570.78	$663.2	+$92.43
└ Alexandra Eala leg	Alexandra Ealaavg 70.5¢	$522.83	$474.44	-$48.38
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Alexandra Ealaavg 74.7¢	$994.52	$872.12	-$122.4	54% 6254-5321 (11575)
└ Alexandra Eala leg	Alexandra Ealaavg 74.7¢	$536.77	$600.37	+$63.6
└ Tereza Valentova leg	Tereza Valentovaavg 27.8¢	$457.75	$271.76	-$186
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Tereza Valentovaavg 36.5¢	$803.12	$836.16	+$33.03	69% 7197-3182 (10379)

999585

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$55,819.4

Value

$44.5K

PnL

$-11.3K

Record

85%

69-12 (81)

RN1

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$30,340.67

Value

$32.8K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

53%

61305-53625 (114930)

6512395314597884

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$18,797.23

Value

$22.0K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

51%

4751-4621 (9372)

Kunkun111CTR

Tereza Valentova

Invested

$22,620.13

Value

$17.2K

PnL

$-5.4K

Record

46%

11-13 (24)

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$17,762.55

Value

$16.4K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

42%

7981-11170 (19151)

Both legs:

Alexandra Eala$11,734.3578.9¢+$831.34

Tereza Valentova$6,028.2124.2¢$-2.2K

monkeymashingkeyboard

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$12,399.97

Value

$12.8K

PnL

+$400

Record

53%

655-578 (1233)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$8,536.95

Value

$7.5K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

50%

1303-1289 (2592)

Both legs:

Alexandra Eala$4,520.3380.1¢+$79.81

Tereza Valentova$4,016.6226¢$-1.2K

Flaznorp

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$4,965.01

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$358.4

Record

51%

25682-24404 (50086)

Limousin

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$4,981.44

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$146.08

Record

53%

1403-1251 (2654)

MrBently

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$5,051.77

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$68.23

Record

52%

584-535 (1119)

tradecraft

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$3,874.04

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$91.6

Record

51%

6327-6114 (12441)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Tereza Valentova

Invested

$2,694.52

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

46%

1526-1799 (3325)

nigiri99CTR

Tereza Valentova

Invested

$3,857.47

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$115.99

Record

46%

8575-10208 (18783)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$3,478.13

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$33.36

Record

52%

14323-13084 (27407)

dv-pmCTR

Tereza Valentova

Invested

$3,507.03

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$15.21

Record

49%

3323-3513 (6836)

38791873984189

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$3,498.28

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$193.97

Record

48%

61012-65825 (126837)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Tereza Valentova

Invested

$2,335.6

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$119.52

Record

50%

538-535 (1073)

1lovejump

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$2,229.87

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$164.02

Record

52%

770-697 (1467)

fydi

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$1,240

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$410

Record

50%

338-338 (676)

LightParadoxCTR

Tereza Valentova

Invested

$1,516.04

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$15.5

Record

52%

1358-1276 (2634)

thestingsnake

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$1,938.46

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$202.03

Record

60%

4420-2961 (7381)

GamblingAddict12345

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$1,018.99

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$343.9

Record

49%

4036-4154 (8190)

VenusianARB<$100

Tereza Valentova

Invested

$1,093.6

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$44.04

Record

51%

1365-1324 (2689)

Both legs:

Tereza Valentova$570.7831¢+$92.43

Alexandra Eala$522.8370.5¢-$48.38

EulhunterARB<$100

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$994.52

Value

$872.12

PnL

-$122.4

Record

54%

6254-5321 (11575)

Both legs:

Alexandra Eala$536.7774.7¢+$63.6

Tereza Valentova$457.7527.8¢-$186

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Tereza Valentova

Invested

$803.12

Value

$836.16

PnL

+$33.03

Record

69%

7197-3182 (10379)

Research grade

NeutralAlexandra Eala at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alexandra Eala

21 of 36 top traders (58%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

67% of non-arb traders are on Alexandra Eala. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAlexandra Eala 60% · 10

Aligned

sharpTereza Valentova 71% · 7

Diverging

ctrAlexandra Eala 68% · 22

Aligned

Hand-pickedAlexandra Eala 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Alexandra Eala 66% · 32

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alexandra Eala wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.