Chennai Open: Sahaja Yamalapalli vs Simona Waltert

13 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Simona Waltert (76%) · Simona Waltert at 74¢ · $62K held · ends Nov 9

Sahaja Yamalapalli27¢Simona Waltert73¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Simona Waltert

Consensus Traders

Simona Waltert 76%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$62.2K

Combined PnL

$-3.4K

Smart Money Entry

74.1¢ → 73.5¢

-1% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralSimona Waltert at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Simona Waltert

13 of 17 top traders (76%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Sahaja Yamalapalli27%

Simona Waltert74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Simona Waltert13 traders

Total Value$38.4K

Total Shares55,667

Combined PnL$-3.3K

Sahaja Yamalapalli4 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares6,048

Combined PnL-$99.47

Simona Waltert — 76%Sahaja Yamalapalli — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Simona Waltert. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSahaja Yamalapalli 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSimona Waltert 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedSimona Waltert 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Simona Waltert 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KK kkookkoo	Simona Waltertavg 66.3¢	$23.4K	$22.8K	-$638.98	51% 624-604 (1228)
RN1ARB<$100	Simona Waltertavg 87.6¢	$9.6K	$8.1K	$-1.5K	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
└ Simona Waltert leg	Simona Waltertavg 87.6¢	$6.7K	$5.0K	$-1.8K
└ Sahaja Yamalapalli leg	Sahaja Yamalapalliavg 32.6¢	$2.9K	$3.2K	+$255.56
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Simona Waltertavg 79¢	$5.9K	$6.4K	+$493.19	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
└ Simona Waltert leg	Simona Waltertavg 79¢	$5.0K	$4.7K	-$352.69
└ Sahaja Yamalapalli leg	Sahaja Yamalapalliavg 13.5¢	$879.34	$1.7K	+$845.88
VE Venusian	Simona Waltertavg 92.5¢	$7.3K	$6.1K	$-1.3K	53% 916-813 (1729)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Simona Waltertavg 73.1¢	$3.2K	$3.4K	+$213.35	44% 10222-13273 (23495)
└ Simona Waltert leg	Simona Waltertavg 73.1¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$18.45
└ Sahaja Yamalapalli leg	Sahaja Yamalapalliavg 21.9¢	$902.89	$1.1K	+$231.81
LI LightParadox	Simona Waltertavg 86.7¢	$3.9K	$3.3K	-$649.21	54% 906-787 (1693)
MA MadridTime	Simona Waltertavg 83¢	$3.2K	$2.7K	-$557.84	52% 830-771 (1601)
IV Ivan948CTR	Sahaja Yamalapalliavg 38.2¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$99.93	42% 87-120 (207)
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Sahaja Yamalapalliavg 28.7¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$47.17	52% 6711-6252 (12963)
└ Sahaja Yamalapalli leg	Sahaja Yamalapalliavg 28.7¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$226.88
└ Simona Waltert leg	Simona Waltertavg 86.1¢	$749.9	$570.19	-$179.71
1L 1lovejump	Simona Waltertavg 87.8¢	$2.6K	$1.4K	+$196.55	52% 702-642 (1344)
LI Limousin	Simona Waltertavg 77.1¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$245.61	56% 942-736 (1678)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Simona Waltertavg 79.1¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	+$28.93	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
└ Simona Waltert leg	Simona Waltertavg 79.1¢	$763.21	$757.82	+$14.94
└ Sahaja Yamalapalli leg	Sahaja Yamalapalliavg 20.7¢	$340.56	$354.55	+$13.99
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Sahaja Yamalapalliavg 31.1¢	$580.49	$603.35	+$22.87	52% 14121-12894 (27015)
└ Sahaja Yamalapalli leg	Sahaja Yamalapalliavg 31.1¢	$390.12	$458.12	+$68
└ Simona Waltert leg	Simona Waltertavg 83.2¢	$190.36	$145.23	-$45.13
TH thestingsnake	Simona Waltertavg 91.4¢	$1.2K	$398.68	-$120.94	60% 4225-2826 (7051)
VeryLucky888	Simona Waltertavg 87¢	$256.62	$258.1	+$1.47	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
EU Eulhunter	Simona Waltertavg 86.4¢	$223.87	$234.9	+$11.03	54% 6054-5063 (11117)
RollAwayTheDew	Simona Waltertavg 89¢	$112.14	$109.62	-$3.15	54% 497-430 (927)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Simona Waltertavg 87.4¢	$48.93	$49	+$0.07	57% 18986-14047 (33033)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Simona Waltertavg 87¢	$8.7	$8.75	+$0.05	52% 8455-7711 (16166)
PA pauleta23<$100	Simona Waltertavg 76.9¢	$3.74	$3.72	-$0.02	66% 23825-12059 (35884)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Sahaja Yamalapalliavg 11¢	$2.47	$2.81	+$0.34	45% 10636-12803 (23439)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Sahaja Yamalapalliavg 13¢	$2.73	$2.63	-$0.1	49% 3261-3353 (6614)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Sahaja Yamalapalliavg 8¢	$0.4	$0.63	+$0.22	65% 5090-2759 (7849)

kkookkoo

Simona Waltert

Invested

$23,400.48

Value

$22.8K

PnL

-$638.98

Record

51%

624-604 (1228)

RN1ARB<$100

Simona Waltert

Invested

$9,638.48

Value

$8.1K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

Both legs:

Simona Waltert$6,739.0987.6¢$-1.8K

Sahaja Yamalapalli$2,899.3832.6¢+$255.56

FlaznorpARB<$100

Simona Waltert

Invested

$5,903.33

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$493.19

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

Both legs:

Simona Waltert$5,023.9979¢-$352.69

Sahaja Yamalapalli$879.3413.5¢+$845.88

Venusian

Simona Waltert

Invested

$7,345.82

Value

$6.1K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

NotJumpARB<$100

Simona Waltert

Invested

$3,187.8

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$213.35

Record

44%

10222-13273 (23495)

Both legs:

Simona Waltert$2,284.9273.1¢-$18.45

Sahaja Yamalapalli$902.8921.9¢+$231.81

LightParadox

Simona Waltert

Invested

$3,914.81

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$649.21

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

MadridTime

Simona Waltert

Invested

$3,246.9

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$557.84

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

Ivan948CTR

Sahaja Yamalapalli

Invested

$2,289.93

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$99.93

Record

42%

87-120 (207)

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Sahaja Yamalapalli

Invested

$1,882.04

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$47.17

Record

52%

6711-6252 (12963)

Both legs:

Sahaja Yamalapalli$1,132.1428.7¢+$226.88

Simona Waltert$749.986.1¢-$179.71

1lovejump

Simona Waltert

Invested

$2,583.68

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$196.55

Record

52%

702-642 (1344)

Limousin

Simona Waltert

Invested

$1,390.92

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$245.61

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Simona Waltert

Invested

$1,250.03

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$28.93

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

Both legs:

Simona Waltert$763.2179.1¢+$14.94

Sahaja Yamalapalli$340.5620.7¢+$13.99

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Sahaja Yamalapalli

Invested

$580.49

Value

$603.35

PnL

+$22.87

Record

52%

14121-12894 (27015)

Both legs:

Sahaja Yamalapalli$390.1231.1¢+$68

Simona Waltert$190.3683.2¢-$45.13

thestingsnake

Simona Waltert

Invested

$1,234.66

Value

$398.68

PnL

-$120.94

Record

60%

4225-2826 (7051)

VeryLucky888

Simona Waltert

Invested

$256.62

Value

$258.1

PnL

+$1.47

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

Eulhunter

Simona Waltert

Invested

$223.87

Value

$234.9

PnL

+$11.03

Record

54%

6054-5063 (11117)

RollAwayTheDew

Simona Waltert

Invested

$112.14

Value

$109.62

PnL

-$3.15

Record

54%

497-430 (927)

BillBenter2026<$100

Simona Waltert

Invested

$48.93

Value

$49

PnL

+$0.07

Record

57%

18986-14047 (33033)

ameisgoat11<$100

Simona Waltert

Invested

$8.7

Value

$8.75

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

8455-7711 (16166)

pauleta23<$100

Simona Waltert

Invested

$3.74

Value

$3.72

PnL

-$0.02

Record

66%

23825-12059 (35884)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Sahaja Yamalapalli

Invested

$2.47

Value

$2.81

PnL

+$0.34

Record

45%

10636-12803 (23439)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Sahaja Yamalapalli

Invested

$2.73

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$0.1

Record

49%

3261-3353 (6614)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Sahaja Yamalapalli

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.63

PnL

+$0.22

Record

65%

5090-2759 (7849)

Research grade

NeutralSimona Waltert at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Simona Waltert

13 of 17 top traders (76%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Simona Waltert. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSahaja Yamalapalli 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSimona Waltert 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedSimona Waltert 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Simona Waltert 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Simona Waltert wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.