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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616beachboy4BreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)43% (2610–3503, n=6113)67% (43–21, n=64)45% (547–663, n=1210)
Consensus PnL$92K$6.1M$11.0M
Tracked asPM monthly #449was PM monthly #24PM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus50% (19 of 38 open)100% (1 of 1 open)68% (77 of 114 open)
Strongest topics
  • Weather +2 pts n=147, ROI +2%
  • NBA +8 pts n=16, ROI +8%
  • NHL +27 pts n=13, ROI +19%
  • Soccer +10 pts n=81, ROI +5%
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
Weakest topicMentions ±0 pts, n=925NBA −6 pts, n=93—
Settled positions, side won37% of 3253 at avg 37¢, ROI −3%57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3%97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢54% (won 3% of 1749)3% (won 17% of 6)10% (won 81% of 57)
Entries 30–50¢14% (won 43% of 463)30% (won 57% of 63)36% (won 98% of 201)
Entries 50–70¢4% (won 61% of 140)54% (won 51% of 115)35% (won 99% of 196)
Entries 70¢ and up28% (won 97% of 901)14% (won 86% of 29)19% (won 100% of 109)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

5 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616beachboy4BreakTheBank
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $3.3K—No $265K
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $1.6K—Yes $77K
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $77—Yes $36K
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
No $5.6K—Yes $20K
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $2.2K—Yes $4.2K
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $39—No $737
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $9.2K—Yes $287K
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $11K—Yes $183K
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $182—No $22K
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $5.3K—No $607
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
same side · consensus No
Yes $958—Yes $1.4K