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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
328.400.funde46m3gmpm2lastminwin
Record (consensus markets)no settled market17% (155–752, n=907)100% (1–0, n=1)86% (12–2, n=14)
Consensus PnL$494$536K$255K$285K
Tracked asPM monthly #100PM monthly #2PM monthly #17PM monthly #102
Sides with the consensus55% (11 of 20 open)73% (313 of 427 open)0% (0 of 1 open)74% (43 of 58 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yetnot computed yetnot computed yet
Weakest topic—Tech ±0 pts, n=36——
Settled positions, side won—93% of 626 at avg 90¢, ROI +2%——
Entries under 30¢—7% (won 11% of 46)——
Entries 30–50¢—1% (won 86% of 7)——
Entries 50–70¢—1% (won 75% of 8)——
Entries 70¢ and up—90% (won 100% of 565)——

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

7 on the same side, 7 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market328.400.funde46m3gmpm2lastminwin
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $9—No $201K
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $4—No $75K
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $10—No $72K
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $6—No $55K
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $21—No $31K
Will Teddy Riner win the 2027 French presidential election?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $32—No $4.8K
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $2.9KYes $19——
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $5.0K——Yes $26K
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $5—Yes $1.9K
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $7—Yes $284
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?
same side · consensus Yes
No $157No $7——
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $4—Yes $135
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $8—Yes $75
Will Kuo Hsi win the next Taipei Mayor election?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $10Yes $29——