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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| 38791873984189 | RN1 | 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (5772–6954, n=12726) | 47% (13860–15343, n=29203) | 46% (131–154, n=285) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) |
| Consensus PnL | $27K | $13.4M | $19.0M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #943 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #715 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 47% (65 of 137 open) | 75% (6 of 8 open) | no open consensus position | 90% (146 of 163 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Soccer −1 pts, n=391 | — | College Basketball −12 pts, n=174 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 46% of 1801 at avg 45¢, ROI +1% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 18% (won 7% of 326) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 0% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 82% of 56) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 64% (won 48% of 1149) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 42% (won 46% of 565) | 36% (won 98% of 198) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 9% (won 64% of 162) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 57% (won 51% of 766) | 35% (won 99% of 191) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 9% (won 90% of 164) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 0% (won 100% of 4) | 19% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
11 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | 38791873984189 | RN1 | 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $1.1K | — | — | No $253K |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House opposite sides · consensus No | No $4.9K | — | — | Yes $18K |
| Luanda: Isabella Shinikova vs Dune Vaissaud opposite sides · consensus Isabella Shinikova | Isabella Shinikova $1.2K | Dune Vaissaud $273 | — | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $241 | — | — | Yes $274K |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $358 | — | — | No $114K |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $1.2K | — | — | Yes $83K |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Hubert Hurkacz same side · consensus Hubert Hurkacz | Lorenzo Musetti $4.5K | Lorenzo Musetti $61K | — | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $302 | — | — | Yes $31K |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $1.2K | — | — | No $30K |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $829 | — | — | Yes $29K |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $476 | — | — | No $25K |
| Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Venus Williams vs Mary Stoiana same side · consensus Mary Stoiana | Mary Stoiana $1.3K | Mary Stoiana $21K | — | — |
| Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10? same side · consensus No | No $952 | No $7.7K | — | — |
| Bratislava 2: Max Houkes vs Michael Vrbensky same side · consensus Max Houkes | Max Houkes $834 | Max Houkes $6.0K | — | — |