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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| 38791873984189 | surfandturf | 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (5778–6961, n=12739) | 52% (273–252, n=525) | 46% (131–154, n=285) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) |
| Consensus PnL | $26K | $4.1M | $19.1M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #943 | was PM monthly #326 | was PM monthly #715 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 61% (148 of 242 open) | 50% (1 of 2 open) | no open consensus position | 90% (147 of 164 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Soccer −1 pts, n=391 | NFL −11 pts, n=58 | College Basketball −12 pts, n=174 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 46% of 1801 at avg 45¢, ROI +1% | 53% of 536 at avg 53¢, ROI 0% | 49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 18% (won 7% of 326) | 20% (won 12% of 109) | 0% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 82% of 56) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 64% (won 48% of 1149) | 21% (won 46% of 114) | 42% (won 46% of 565) | 36% (won 98% of 198) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 9% (won 64% of 162) | 33% (won 60% of 176) | 57% (won 51% of 766) | 35% (won 99% of 191) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 9% (won 90% of 164) | 26% (won 82% of 137) | 0% (won 100% of 4) | 19% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
11 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.