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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankRememberAmalekuprightuserWiretransferxyz
Record (consensus markets)97% (524–18, n=542)74% (470–167, n=637)no settled market59% (363–253, n=616)
Consensus PnL$8.5M$1.1M—$883K
Tracked asPM monthly #1PM monthly #153was PM monthly #529PM monthly #227
Sides with the consensus82% (36 of 44 open)54% (81 of 149 open)100% (46 of 46 open)100% (1 of 1 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=83, ROI +49%
  • NBA +47 pts n=58, ROI +46%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=160, ROI +37%
not computed yet
Weakest topic—Crypto −1 pts, n=10——
Settled positions, side won95% of 332 at avg 52¢, ROI +39%61% of 525 at avg 50¢, ROI +5%—59% of 495 at avg 53¢, ROI +8%
Entries under 30¢11% (won 69% of 36)37% (won 10% of 193)—6% (won 17% of 29)
Entries 30–50¢35% (won 97% of 116)13% (won 67% of 66)—35% (won 46% of 171)
Entries 50–70¢37% (won 99% of 124)14% (won 88% of 74)—47% (won 66% of 233)
Entries 70¢ and up17% (won 100% of 56)37% (won 99% of 192)—13% (won 89% of 62)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

12 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankRememberAmalekuprightuserWiretransferxyz
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $31KYes $75K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $22KYes $265——
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $20Yes $566—
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $27Yes $499—
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $13Yes $500—
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $10Yes $380—
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $6Yes $240—
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $6Yes $229—
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $6Yes $220—
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $5Yes $180—
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $2Yes $60—
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $2Yes $60—
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $1Yes $40—