Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 37 of 37 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
37 of 37 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.8¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 7, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
37
Yes 100%
$12.4K
$2.1K
0.6¢ → 0.8¢
+22% since entry · 30 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
37 of 37 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)37 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
37 traders
Top 2 hold 50%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $3.8K | $4.7K | +$873.44 | — 0-2 (2) |
J- J-E-RCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$132.54 | — |
TU tugatorCTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$50.7 | — |
0X 0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50ACTR | Yes | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$25.64 | 0% 0-93 (93) |
11 11122CTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $851.79 | $937.58 | +$85.79 | 0% 0-141 (141) |
Q9 Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $403.84 | $769.32 | +$365.48 | — 0-3 (3) |
SM smoltraderCTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $250.5 | $431.4 | +$180.9 | — 0-1 (1) |
PE petanimalCTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $193.87 | $341.4 | +$147.53 | — 0-14 (14) |
UP uprightuserCTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $157.48 | $300 | +$142.52 | — |
NY NyetRiskCTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $160.93 | $154.5 | -$6.43 | 0% 0-112 (112) |
 tetroseCTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $78.74 | $150 | +$71.26 | 0% 0-89 (89) |
JA JamesAltucherCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $121.48 | $135 | +$13.52 | — |
RE rebotsliafCTR | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $108.67 | $126.28 | +$17.6 | 0% 0-79 (79) |
 JJoCTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $124.95 | $124.49 | -$0.46 | — 0-5 (5) |
0X 0x4e25605fd905e9972efc0f4d8814530c655cd7a7CTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $95.68 | $109.13 | +$13.44 | 16% 9-47 (56) |
 Gucky-45CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $43.03 | $81.98 | +$38.94 | 33% 171-343 (514) |
CO cocococococoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $51.3 | $60.08 | +$8.78 | — 0-18 (18) |
 0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $45.37 | $46.49 | +$1.12 | 0% 0-41 (41) |
LI LiquidifierCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $22.47 | $24.05 | +$1.58 | 15% 6-33 (39) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yes | $23.51 | $23.51 | +$23.51 | — 1-11 (12) |
 HOG993CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $11.28 | $21.5 | +$10.21 | — 0-2 (2) |
0X 0xCB3143ee858E14d0B3FE40fFeaEa78416e646B0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $6.3 | $12 | +$5.7 | 0% 0-121 (121) |
 ImJustKenCTR<$100 | Yes | $11.47 | $11.47 | +$11.47 | 0% 0-122 (122) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $10.24 | $10.5 | +$0.26 | 57% 67-50 (117) |
DR DreamwireCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $8.59 | $8.25 | -$0.34 | 41% 28-40 (68) |
Invested
$3,805.71
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$873.44
Record
—
0-2 (2)
Invested
$1,457.89
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$132.54
Record
—
Invested
$1,269.45
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$50.7
Record
—
Invested
$1,001.55
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$25.64
Record
0%
0-93 (93)
Invested
$851.79
Value
$937.58
PnL
+$85.79
Record
0%
0-141 (141)
Invested
$403.84
Value
$769.32
PnL
+$365.48
Record
—
0-3 (3)
Invested
$250.5
Value
$431.4
PnL
+$180.9
Record
—
0-1 (1)
Invested
$193.87
Value
$341.4
PnL
+$147.53
Record
—
0-14 (14)
Invested
$157.48
Value
$300
PnL
+$142.52
Record
—
Invested
$160.93
Value
$154.5
PnL
-$6.43
Record
0%
0-112 (112)
tetroseCTRInvested
$78.74
Value
$150
PnL
+$71.26
Record
0%
0-89 (89)
Invested
$121.48
Value
$135
PnL
+$13.52
Record
—
Invested
$108.67
Value
$126.28
PnL
+$17.6
Record
0%
0-79 (79)
JJoCTRInvested
$124.95
Value
$124.49
PnL
-$0.46
Record
—
0-5 (5)
Invested
$95.68
Value
$109.13
PnL
+$13.44
Record
16%
9-47 (56)
Gucky-45CTR<$100Invested
$43.03
Value
$81.98
PnL
+$38.94
Record
33%
171-343 (514)
Invested
$51.3
Value
$60.08
PnL
+$8.78
Record
—
0-18 (18)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100Invested
$45.37
Value
$46.49
PnL
+$1.12
Record
0%
0-41 (41)
Invested
$22.47
Value
$24.05
PnL
+$1.58
Record
15%
6-33 (39)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$23.51
Value
$23.51
PnL
+$23.51
Record
—
1-11 (12)
HOG993CTR<$100Invested
$11.28
Value
$21.5
PnL
+$10.21
Record
—
0-2 (2)
Invested
$6.3
Value
$12
PnL
+$5.7
Record
0%
0-121 (121)
ImJustKenCTR<$100Invested
$11.47
Value
$11.47
PnL
+$11.47
Record
0%
0-122 (122)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$10.24
Value
$10.5
PnL
+$0.26
Record
57%
67-50 (117)
Invested
$8.59
Value
$8.25
PnL
-$0.34
Record
41%
28-40 (68)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA
CTRYes — $4.7K
J-E-R
CTRYes — $1.6K
tugator
CTRYes — $1.2K
0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50A
CTRYes — $1.0K
11122
CTRYes — $937.58
Q96s3kwozynxpau
CTRYes — $769.32
smoltrader
CTRYes — $431.4
petanimal
CTRYes — $341.4
uprightuser
CTRYes — $300
NyetRisk
CTRYes — $154.5