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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankgod83743894ndb1
Record (consensus markets)45% (547–663, n=1210)33% (3410–6999, n=10409)66% (877–458, n=1335)
Consensus PnL$11.0M-$33K$4.1M
Tracked asPM monthly #1PM monthly #317PM monthly #12
Sides with the consensus53% (60 of 113 open)73% (139 of 190 open)73% (27 of 37 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topic—Weather −7 pts, n=4652NFL −10 pts, n=132
Settled positions, side won97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%29% of 7204 at avg 34¢, ROI −5%64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 81% of 57)68% (won 1% of 4909)13% (won 16% of 160)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 201)2% (won 38% of 146)20% (won 40% of 253)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 99% of 196)3% (won 54% of 201)24% (won 57% of 310)
Entries 70¢ and up19% (won 100% of 109)27% (won 96% of 1948)43% (won 93% of 544)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

7 on the same side, 12 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankgod83743894ndb1
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $418No $30No $1.4M
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus No
No $331KNo $752Yes $604K
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $236KNo $61Yes $321K
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $3.6KNo $57No $7.1K
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $77K—No $1.9M
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $131K—Yes $822K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $287K—No $79K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $50K—No $832
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $30KNo $65—
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $7.8KNo $130—
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $4.0KNo $156—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $3.6KNo $237—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $282No $373—
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $42K—No $133K
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $119KNo $70—
Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $42KNo $30—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus No
Yes $28K—Yes $12K
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $11KNo $30—
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
No $167—No $3.2K