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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankhurricanndb1
Record (consensus markets)45% (542–652, n=1194)74% (1200–423, n=1623)65% (862–456, n=1318)
Consensus PnL$11.1M-$272K$4.1M
Tracked asPM monthly #1PM monthly #188PM monthly #69
Sides with the consensus86% (141 of 164 open)no open consensus position72% (53 of 74 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=134, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=279, ROI +38%
Weakest topic—Other Sports −2 pts, n=25NFL −10 pts, n=132
Settled positions, side won97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%87% of 1446 at avg 76¢, ROI +10%64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 82% of 56)1% (won 31% of 16)13% (won 16% of 160)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 198)8% (won 65% of 120)20% (won 39% of 252)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 99% of 191)18% (won 84% of 258)24% (won 57% of 306)
Entries 70¢ and up19% (won 100% of 107)73% (won 92% of 1052)43% (won 93% of 540)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

6 on the same side, 8 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankhurricanndb1
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $257K—Yes $643K
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $85K—No $513K
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $166K—Yes $411K
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $179K—Yes $277K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $278K—No $95K
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $119K—Yes $86K
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $87K—No $93K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $14K—No $345
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $175K—Yes $2.8M
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus No
No $407K—No $335K
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $278K—Yes $11K
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $66K—Yes $12K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $23K—Yes $2
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Ohio and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $9.1K—Yes $2