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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BunnycatBreakTheBankndb1beachboy4
Record (consensus markets)81% (93–22, n=115)45% (542–652, n=1194)65% (862–456, n=1318)68% (43–20, n=63)
Consensus PnL$13K$11.0M$4.1M$5.8M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #764PM monthly #1PM monthly #69was PM monthly #24
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position90% (148 of 164 open)68% (49 of 72 open)100% (1 of 1 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=134, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=279, ROI +38%
  • NHL +27 pts n=13, ROI +19%
  • Soccer +10 pts n=81, ROI +5%
Weakest topic——NFL −10 pts, n=132NBA −6 pts, n=93
Settled positions, side won95% of 101 at avg 69¢, ROI +26%97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3%
Entries under 30¢3% (won 33% of 3)10% (won 82% of 56)13% (won 16% of 160)3% (won 17% of 6)
Entries 30–50¢9% (won 67% of 9)36% (won 98% of 198)20% (won 39% of 252)30% (won 57% of 63)
Entries 50–70¢33% (won 100% of 33)35% (won 99% of 191)24% (won 57% of 306)54% (won 51% of 115)
Entries 70¢ and up55% (won 100% of 56)19% (won 100% of 107)43% (won 93% of 540)14% (won 86% of 29)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

6 on the same side, 9 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBunnycatBreakTheBankndb1beachboy4
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $918KYes $315K—
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $253KYes $667K—
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $202KYes $407K—
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $85KNo $477K—
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $274KNo $99K—
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $114KYes $90K—
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $83KNo $97K—
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $21KNo $9.0K—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $9.3KNo $346—
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $172KYes $2.7M—
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus No
—No $407KNo $335K—
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $280KYes $11K—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $28KYes $12K—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $16KYes $2—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Ohio and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $6.4KYes $2—