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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Erasmus. | 00gringo00 | BreakTheBank | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 71% (391–156, n=547) | 75% (6–2, n=8) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 48% (12778–13831, n=26609) |
| Consensus PnL | $516K | $3.5M | $10.6M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #184 | was PM monthly #19 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 75% (9 of 12 open) | no open consensus position | 70% (57 of 82 open) | 61% (91 of 148 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| none with 10+ settled |
| |
| Weakest topic | Elections −5 pts, n=122 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 74% of 573 at avg 69¢, ROI +3% | 86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 20% (won 13% of 117) | 0% | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 8% (won 44% of 43) | 0% | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 8% (won 65% of 46) | 100% (won 86% of 7) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 64% (won 98% of 367) | 0% | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 10 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Erasmus. | 00gringo00 | BreakTheBank | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens vs. Bills opposite sides · consensus Bills | — | — | Bills $387K | Ravens $727 |
| Spread: Steelers (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Browns | — | — | Browns $300K | Steelers $91 |
| Browns vs. Steelers opposite sides · consensus Steelers | — | — | Browns $259K | Steelers $3.6K |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $6.2K | — | No $202K | — |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | No $48K | — | Yes $85K | — |
| Spread: Jets (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Raiders | — | — | Raiders $105K | Jets $257 |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $3.6K | — | No $35K | — |
| Spread: Cowboys (-7.5) opposite sides · consensus Cardinals | — | — | Cardinals $32K | Cowboys $21 |
| Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers | — | — | Falcons $8.6K | Buccaneers $1.6K |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | — | Cardinals $2.7K | Cowboys $644 |
| Spread: Bills (-3.5) same side · consensus Ravens | — | — | Bills $35K | Bills $37 |