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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| HorribleWork | 00gringo00 | RN1 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 65% (432–235, n=667) | 75% (6–2, n=8) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) |
| Consensus PnL | -$238K | $3.5M | $13.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #985 | was PM monthly #19 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 6% (1 of 17 open) | no open consensus position | 71% (15 of 21 open) | 74% (73 of 99 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| none with 10+ settled |
| |
| Weakest topic | Economy −6 pts, n=36 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 70% of 615 at avg 67¢, ROI +2% | 86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 27% (won 15% of 163) | 0% | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 6% (won 36% of 39) | 0% | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 6% (won 71% of 35) | 100% (won 86% of 7) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 61% (won 98% of 378) | 0% | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
6 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.