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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Istaroth | BreakTheBank | CORGII | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 32% (79–171, n=250) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 62% (393–245, n=638) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) |
| Consensus PnL | -$706K | $10.6M | $4.5M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #68 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 77% (51 of 66 open) | 72% (79 of 109 open) | 0% (0 of 4 open) | 58% (85 of 147 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Crypto −4 pts, n=76 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 78% of 287 at avg 77¢, ROI −4% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 18% (won 12% of 51) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 9% (won 92% of 36) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 5% (won 54% of 13) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 56% (won 99% of 223) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 2% (won 50% of 6) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 33% (won 100% of 133) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 76% (won 95% of 217) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 2% (won 100% of 7) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
8 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Istaroth | BreakTheBank | CORGII | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Steelers (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Browns | — | Browns $297K | — | Steelers $1.9K |
| Browns vs. Steelers opposite sides · consensus Steelers | — | Browns $255K | — | Steelers $6.0K |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | Cardinals $59K | — | Cowboys $12K |
| Spread: Raiders (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Jets | — | Raiders $17K | — | Jets $109 |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | Cardinals $3.0K | — | Cowboys $1.4K |
| Ravens vs. Bills same side · consensus Bills | — | Bills $378K | — | Bills $22K |
| Spread: Jets (-1.5) same side · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $104K | — | Raiders $4.3K |
| Spread: Bills (-3.5) same side · consensus Ravens | — | Bills $51K | — | Bills $18K |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $51K | — | Magic $228 |
| Spread: Jets (-2.5) same side · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $24K | — | Raiders $2.7K |
| Spread: Jaguars (-10.5) same side · consensus Jaguars | — | Jaguars $20K | — | Jaguars $1.1K |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $13K | — | Magic $161 |
| Will Republicans win Iowa and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? same side · consensus No | Yes $10 | Yes $41 | — | — |