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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| PROBABILITYTRADER | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 | BreakTheBank | ndb1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (974–1212, n=2186) | 61% (495–321, n=816) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 65% (862–456, n=1318) |
| Consensus PnL | -$161K | -$352K | $11.0M | $4.1M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #666 | was PM monthly #51 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #69 |
| Sides with the consensus | 0% (0 of 1 open) | 80% (12 of 15 open) | 90% (148 of 164 open) | 68% (49 of 72 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | NBA −3 pts, n=120 | Soccer ±0 pts, n=115 | — | NFL −10 pts, n=132 |
| Settled positions, side won | 46% of 2442 at avg 40¢, ROI +3% | 60% of 822 at avg 48¢, ROI +5% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 22% (won 14% of 528) | 15% (won 29% of 125) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 13% (won 16% of 160) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 51% (won 47% of 1238) | 34% (won 58% of 283) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 20% (won 39% of 252) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 27% (won 70% of 671) | 43% (won 69% of 354) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 24% (won 57% of 306) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 0% (won 100% of 5) | 7% (won 80% of 60) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 43% (won 93% of 540) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
6 on the same side, 10 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.