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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Trungl | BreakTheBank | ndb1 | beachboy4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 64% (437–249, n=686) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 65% (862–456, n=1318) | 68% (43–20, n=63) |
| Consensus PnL | -$322 | $11.0M | $4.1M | $5.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #923 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #69 | was PM monthly #24 |
| Sides with the consensus | no open consensus position | 90% (148 of 164 open) | 68% (49 of 72 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | — | — | NFL −10 pts, n=132 | NBA −6 pts, n=93 |
| Settled positions, side won | 93% of 475 at avg 68¢, ROI +21% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 1% (won 33% of 3) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 13% (won 16% of 160) | 3% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 9% (won 83% of 42) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 20% (won 39% of 252) | 30% (won 57% of 63) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 40% (won 93% of 192) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 24% (won 57% of 306) | 54% (won 51% of 115) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 50% (won 96% of 238) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 43% (won 93% of 540) | 14% (won 86% of 29) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
6 on the same side, 9 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.