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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| UbuntuTrading | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 48% (1752–1897, n=3649) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 68% (43–20, n=63) |
| Consensus PnL | $117K | $4.4M | $10.6M | $5.8M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 |
| Sides with the consensus | 54% (44 of 82 open) | no open consensus position | 74% (73 of 99 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | Tech −2 pts, n=195 | — | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 |
| Settled positions, side won | 35% of 3786 at avg 35¢, ROI 0% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 64% (won 6% of 2407) | 0% | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 3% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 4% (won 37% of 153) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 29% (won 56% of 62) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 4% (won 68% of 159) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 54% (won 51% of 115) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 28% (won 96% of 1067) | 0% | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
7 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.