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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| aenews2 | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 61% (1121–727, n=1848) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 48% (12778–13831, n=26609) |
| Consensus PnL | $2.4M | $10.6M | $5.8M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #117 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 33% (20 of 61 open) | 70% (57 of 82 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 62% (91 of 147 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | Crypto −3 pts, n=49 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 65% of 1945 at avg 62¢, ROI +1% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 31% (won 9% of 596) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 6% (won 53% of 112) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 7% (won 68% of 143) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 56% (won 97% of 1094) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 7 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | aenews2 | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens vs. Bills opposite sides · consensus Bills | — | Bills $387K | — | Ravens $727 |
| Spread: Steelers (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Browns | — | Browns $300K | — | Steelers $91 |
| Browns vs. Steelers opposite sides · consensus Steelers | — | Browns $259K | — | Steelers $3.6K |
| Spread: Jets (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $105K | — | Jets $257 |
| Spread: Cowboys (-7.5) opposite sides · consensus Cardinals | — | Cardinals $32K | — | Cowboys $21 |
| Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers | — | Falcons $8.6K | — | Buccaneers $1.6K |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | Cardinals $2.7K | — | Cowboys $644 |
| Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $30K | Yes $51K | — | — |
| Spread: Bills (-3.5) same side · consensus Ravens | — | Bills $35K | — | Bills $37 |