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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| randomWalkingShrimp | RN1 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 78% (884–246, n=1130) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $39K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 76% (39 of 51 open) | 54% (64 of 118 open) | 72% (73 of 101 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 81% of 1028 at avg 72¢, ROI +8% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 14% (won 19% of 146) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 7% (won 50% of 72) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 12% (won 79% of 124) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 67% (won 98% of 686) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
9 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | randomWalkingShrimp | RN1 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | No $19 | — | Yes $77K | — |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | Cowboys $12K | Cardinals $59K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $662 | — | Yes $37K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $497 | — | No $35K | — |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $153 | — | Yes $28K | — |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | Cowboys $1.4K | Cardinals $3.0K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $84 | — | Yes $169K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | No $267 | — | No $102K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $82 | — | Yes $73K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $228 | Magic $51K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $161 | Magic $13K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $775 | — | No $10K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | No $1.6K | — | No $747 | — |
| Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $77 | — | Yes $2.2K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | No $1.3K | — | No $590 | — |