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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
suntoribeachboy4BreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)45% (10674–13008, n=23682)68% (43–20, n=63)45% (542–652, n=1194)
Consensus PnL$207K$5.8M$10.6M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #792was PM monthly #24PM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus57% (87 of 152 open)100% (2 of 2 open)90% (146 of 163 open)
Strongest topics
  • NHL +27 pts n=13, ROI +19%
  • Soccer +10 pts n=81, ROI +5%
  • NFL +51 pts n=134, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=279, ROI +38%
Weakest topicCrypto −3 pts, n=3302NBA −6 pts, n=93—
Settled positions, side won42% of 10150 at avg 43¢, ROI −2%57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3%97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢35% (won 9% of 3590)3% (won 17% of 6)10% (won 82% of 56)
Entries 30–50¢22% (won 36% of 2197)30% (won 57% of 63)36% (won 98% of 198)
Entries 50–70¢25% (won 59% of 2489)54% (won 51% of 115)35% (won 99% of 191)
Entries 70¢ and up18% (won 88% of 1874)14% (won 86% of 29)19% (won 100% of 107)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

11 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Marketsuntoribeachboy4BreakTheBank
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $461—No $407K
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $215—No $253K
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $647—No $202K
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $77—Yes $172K
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $465—No $114K
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
same side · consensus No
No $164—No $857K
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $3.5K—Yes $280K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $757—Yes $274K
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
Yes $20—Yes $85K
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
Yes $9—Yes $29K
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $40—Yes $22K
Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $127—Yes $13K
Will Republicans win Alaska and Texas, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $6—Yes $5.5K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Maine, and Michigan?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $10—Yes $4.7K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $10—Yes $4.6K
Will Republicans win Michigan and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $10—Yes $8