Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Ben Shelton

16 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Ben Shelton (62%) · Ben Shelton at 76¢ · $372K held · ends Nov 14

Luca Van Assche25¢Ben Shelton75¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Ben Shelton

Consensus Traders

Ben Shelton 62%

17 arb excluded

Total Value

$372.1K

Combined PnL

$-8.0K

Smart Money Entry

75.1¢ → 75.5¢

+1% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

Research candidateBen Shelton at 76%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ben Shelton

16 of 26 top traders (62%)17 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Luca Van Assche25%

Ben Shelton76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ben Shelton16 traders

Total Value$116.3K

Total Shares150,816

Combined PnL+$752.45

Luca Van Assche10 traders

Total Value$11.6K

Total Shares47,538

Combined PnL$-8.8K

Ben Shelton — 62%Luca Van Assche — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Ben Shelton. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBen Shelton 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpLuca Van Assche 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrBen Shelton 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedLuca Van Assche 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Luca Van Assche 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	Ben Sheltonavg 60.2¢	$94.1K	$91.1K	$-2.9K	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
└ Ben Shelton leg	Ben Sheltonavg 60.2¢	$47.1K	$59.0K	+$11.9K
└ Luca Van Assche leg	Luca Van Asscheavg 35.8¢	$47.0K	$32.1K	$-14.9K
PE pelik	Ben Sheltonavg 99.9¢	$50.0K	$37.8K	$-12.2K	99% 5182-74 (5256)
RN1ARB<$100	Ben Sheltonavg 59.5¢	$33.6K	$37.7K	+$4.2K	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
└ Ben Shelton leg	Ben Sheltonavg 59.5¢	$19.9K	$25.2K	+$5.3K
└ Luca Van Assche leg	Luca Van Asscheavg 26.8¢	$13.7K	$12.5K	$-1.1K
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Ben Sheltonavg 44¢	$18.6K	$31.9K	+$13.2K	53% 6334-5615 (11949)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Ben Sheltonavg 61.3¢	$10.0K	$29.1K	+$19.1K	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ Luca Van Assche leg	Luca Van Asscheavg 3¢	$2.4K	$19.8K	+$17.4K
└ Ben Shelton leg	Ben Sheltonavg 61.3¢	$7.5K	$9.3K	+$1.7K
LI LimousinARB<$100	Luca Van Asscheavg 40.1¢	$36.2K	$24.6K	$-11.6K	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
└ Luca Van Assche leg	Luca Van Asscheavg 40.1¢	$23.9K	$14.6K	$-9.3K
└ Ben Shelton leg	Ben Sheltonavg 92.9¢	$12.3K	$10.0K	$-2.3K
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Ben Sheltonavg 73.9¢	$14.4K	$17.3K	+$2.9K	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
└ Ben Shelton leg	Ben Sheltonavg 73.9¢	$10.9K	$11.2K	+$232.37
└ Luca Van Assche leg	Luca Van Asscheavg 13.8¢	$3.5K	$6.2K	+$2.7K
DM dmoralez	Ben Sheltonavg 73.6¢	$35.1K	$15.1K	$-1.5K	62% 211-127 (338)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Ben Sheltonavg 61.5¢	$27.3K	$14.5K	$-3.6K	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
└ Ben Shelton leg	Ben Sheltonavg 61.5¢	$8.1K	$10.0K	-$81.17
└ Luca Van Assche leg	Luca Van Asscheavg 34.1¢	$6.3K	$4.5K	$-3.5K
QI qiu3	Ben Sheltonavg 76.9¢	$12.1K	$11.9K	-$222.58	59% 51-35 (86)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Ben Sheltonavg 63¢	$7.9K	$8.6K	+$768.58	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
└ Ben Shelton leg	Ben Sheltonavg 63¢	$5.4K	$6.5K	+$1.1K
└ Luca Van Assche leg	Luca Van Asscheavg 28.1¢	$2.4K	$2.1K	-$312.1
PA Paul973973	Ben Sheltonavg 94.1¢	$9.2K	$7.4K	$-1.8K	89% 1073-138 (1211)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Ben Sheltonavg 70.3¢	$7.0K	$6.3K	-$652.16	54% 6333-5398 (11731)
└ Ben Shelton leg	Ben Sheltonavg 70.3¢	$4.2K	$4.5K	+$313.13
└ Luca Van Assche leg	Luca Van Asscheavg 37.7¢	$2.8K	$1.8K	-$965.29
RE redvinnyCTR	Luca Van Asscheavg 67.6¢	$15.4K	$4.8K	$-8.8K	75% 1633-539 (2172)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Luca Van Asscheavg 43.9¢	$4.5K	$3.8K	-$776.91	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
└ Ben Shelton leg	Ben Sheltonavg 61¢	$1.8K	$2.2K	+$431.76
└ Luca Van Assche leg	Luca Van Asscheavg 43.9¢	$2.7K	$1.5K	$-1.2K
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3	Ben Sheltonavg 48¢	$1.6K	$2.5K	+$895.85	46% 425-508 (933)
AL alvahunter	Ben Sheltonavg 48.2¢	$3.1K	$2.4K	+$2.5K	37% 25-42 (67)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Ben Sheltonavg 46.4¢	$963.55	$2.2K	+$1.2K	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
└ Ben Shelton leg	Ben Sheltonavg 46.4¢	$697.25	$1.1K	+$437.6
└ Luca Van Assche leg	Luca Van Asscheavg 6.1¢	$266.3	$1.1K	+$808.59
PV pvc975	Ben Sheltonavg 99.9¢	$2.9K	$2.2K	-$709.77	98% 18444-384 (18828)
HI hi774cCTR	Luca Van Asscheavg 23.4¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$83.99	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
LO looppau	Ben Sheltonavg 99.9¢	$2.5K	$1.9K	-$610	99% 13202-108 (13310)
VeryLucky888CTR	Luca Van Asscheavg 23.6¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	+$71.11	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Ben Sheltonavg 94.8¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$13.25	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
└ Ben Shelton leg	Ben Sheltonavg 94.8¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$337.79
└ Luca Van Assche leg	Luca Van Asscheavg 7.4¢	$141.66	$466.2	+$324.54
OL OldZz	Ben Sheltonavg 49¢	$1.0K	$1.5K	+$543.25	47% 122-139 (261)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Ben Sheltonavg 75.7¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$7	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
└ Ben Shelton leg	Ben Sheltonavg 75.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$3
└ Luca Van Assche leg	Luca Van Asscheavg 24¢	$479.99	$489.99	+$10

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

Ben Shelton

Invested

$94,070.99

Value

$91.1K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

Both legs:

Ben Shelton$47,076.0660.2¢+$11.9K

Luca Van Assche$46,994.9335.8¢$-14.9K

pelik

Ben Shelton

Invested

$50,000

Value

$37.8K

PnL

$-12.2K

Record

99%

5182-74 (5256)

RN1ARB<$100

Ben Shelton

Invested

$33,554.09

Value

$37.7K

PnL

+$4.2K

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Both legs:

Ben Shelton$19,889.2359.5¢+$5.3K

Luca Van Assche$13,664.8526.8¢$-1.1K

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Ben Shelton

Invested

$18,626.23

Value

$31.9K

PnL

+$13.2K

Record

53%

6334-5615 (11949)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Ben Shelton

Invested

$9,954.66

Value

$29.1K

PnL

+$19.1K

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

Luca Van Assche$2,434.733¢+$17.4K

Ben Shelton$7,519.9361.3¢+$1.7K

LimousinARB<$100

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$36,228.72

Value

$24.6K

PnL

$-11.6K

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Both legs:

Luca Van Assche$23,906.1440.1¢$-9.3K

Ben Shelton$12,322.5892.9¢$-2.3K

MadridTimeARB<$100

Ben Shelton

Invested

$14,407.12

Value

$17.3K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

Both legs:

Ben Shelton$10,920.8873.9¢+$232.37

Luca Van Assche$3,486.2513.8¢+$2.7K

dmoralez

Ben Shelton

Invested

$35,126.52

Value

$15.1K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

62%

211-127 (338)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Ben Shelton

Invested

$27,322.97

Value

$14.5K

PnL

$-3.6K

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

Both legs:

Ben Shelton$8,111.0161.5¢-$81.17

Luca Van Assche$6,301.2834.1¢$-3.5K

qiu3

Ben Shelton

Invested

$12,123.73

Value

$11.9K

PnL

-$222.58

Record

59%

51-35 (86)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Ben Shelton

Invested

$7,871.37

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$768.58

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Both legs:

Ben Shelton$5,441.2263¢+$1.1K

Luca Van Assche$2,430.1528.1¢-$312.1

Paul973973

Ben Shelton

Invested

$9,200

Value

$7.4K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

89%

1073-138 (1211)

EulhunterARB<$100

Ben Shelton

Invested

$6,953.88

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$652.16

Record

54%

6333-5398 (11731)

Both legs:

Ben Shelton$4,197.370.3¢+$313.13

Luca Van Assche$2,756.5837.7¢-$965.29

redvinnyCTR

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$15,404.39

Value

$4.8K

PnL

$-8.8K

Record

75%

1633-539 (2172)

VenusianARB<$100

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$4,545.96

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$776.91

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

Both legs:

Ben Shelton$1,809.561¢+$431.76

Luca Van Assche$2,736.4643.9¢$-1.2K

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3

Ben Shelton

Invested

$1,563.67

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$895.85

Record

46%

425-508 (933)

alvahunter

Ben Shelton

Invested

$3,079.5

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

37%

25-42 (67)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Ben Shelton

Invested

$963.55

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

Both legs:

Ben Shelton$697.2546.4¢+$437.6

Luca Van Assche$266.36.1¢+$808.59

pvc975

Ben Shelton

Invested

$2,905.98

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$709.77

Record

98%

18444-384 (18828)

hi774cCTR

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$1,818.25

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$83.99

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

looppau

Ben Shelton

Invested

$2,497.5

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$610

Record

99%

13202-108 (13310)

VeryLucky888CTR

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$1,873.84

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$71.11

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Ben Shelton

Invested

$1,800.47

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$13.25

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

Both legs:

Ben Shelton$1,658.8194.8¢-$337.79

Luca Van Assche$141.667.4¢+$324.54

OldZz

Ben Shelton

Invested

$1,004.5

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$543.25

Record

47%

122-139 (261)

NM-PARB<$100

Ben Shelton

Invested

$1,540.56

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$7

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

Both legs:

Ben Shelton$1,060.5775.7¢-$3

Luca Van Assche$479.9924¢+$10

Research grade

Research candidateBen Shelton at 76%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Ben Shelton

16 of 26 top traders (62%)17 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Ben Shelton. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBen Shelton 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpLuca Van Assche 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrBen Shelton 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedLuca Van Assche 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Luca Van Assche 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ben Shelton wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.