Orleans: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Dusan Lajovic

11 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Buvaysar Gadamauri (39%) · Buvaysar Gadamauri at 69¢ · $35K held · ends Nov 17

Buvaysar Gadamauri69¢Dusan Lajovic31¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Consensus Traders

Buvaysar Gadamauri 39%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$34.5K

Combined PnL

$207.83

Smart Money Entry

77.4¢ → 69¢

-11% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralBuvaysar Gadamauri at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Buvaysar Gadamauri

11 of 28 top traders (39%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Buvaysar Gadamauri69%

Dusan Lajovic31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Buvaysar Gadamauri11 traders

Total Value$24.4K

Total Shares33,776

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Dusan Lajovic17 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares34,448

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Buvaysar Gadamauri — 39%Dusan Lajovic — 61%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Buvaysar Gadamauri. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Buvaysar Gadamauri) and the top 1000 (28 on Dusan Lajovic) disagree here.

sharpDusan Lajovic 50% · 2

Diverging

sniperBuvaysar Gadamauri 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrDusan Lajovic 75% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedBuvaysar Gadamauri 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Dusan Lajovic 64% · 28

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
01 01258787xy48487484545122	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 85.2¢	$12.9K	$10.6K	$-2.2K	67% 160-80 (240)
YE yesmate	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 74¢	$7.4K	$7.0K	-$350	52% 177-165 (342)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Dusan Lajovicavg 15¢	$2.5K	$5.3K	+$2.8K	54% 1609-1354 (2963)
VeryLucky888	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 54¢	$2.3K	$3.3K	+$998.1	48% 218-232 (450)
12xmrbolt	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 85.4¢	$2.4K	$1.9K	-$491.13	8% 3-34 (37)
RN1CTR	Dusan Lajovicavg 26¢	$1.3K	$846.55	-$450.59	58% 3749-2704 (6453)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Dusan Lajovicavg 23.8¢	$822.28	$839.33	+$121.05	35% 60-113 (173)
LI LightParadox	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 73¢	$812.74	$762.64	-$50.1	24% 202-637 (839)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 66.4¢	$1.1K	$507.68	+$162.9	48% 767-833 (1600)
└ Buvaysar Gadamauri leg	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 66.4¢	$300.94	$328.43	+$72.13
└ Dusan Lajovic leg	Dusan Lajovicavg 20.2¢	$131.99	$179.26	+$90.76
VE VenusianCTR	Dusan Lajovicavg 18.4¢	$289.55	$399.75	+$110.21	24% 205-642 (847)
FL Flaznorp	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 55.6¢	$240.74	$359.56	+$118.83	50% 1387-1404 (2791)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Dusan Lajovicavg 16¢	$320	$340	+$20	51% 3158-3057 (6215)
SU suitcase6628CTR	Dusan Lajovicavg 21¢	$210	$295	+$85	64% 149-84 (233)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 61.9¢	$240.17	$290.21	+$50.05	33% 287-590 (877)
└ Buvaysar Gadamauri leg	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 61.9¢	$188.34	$217.43	+$29.09
└ Dusan Lajovic leg	Dusan Lajovicavg 20.3¢	$51.83	$72.78	+$20.95
dips.CTR	Dusan Lajovicavg 26¢	$223.28	$253.34	+$30.06	42% 189-264 (453)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Dusan Lajovicavg 29.9¢	$479.71	$237.04	+$87.72	16% 62-332 (394)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Dusan Lajovicavg 45¢	$639	$227.2	-$411.8	1% 2-197 (199)
PA pauleta23	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 80¢	$196	$203.35	+$7.35	20% 104-409 (513)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 72¢	$127.44	$143.55	+$16.11	24% 201-647 (848)
└ Dusan Lajovic leg	Dusan Lajovicavg 22¢	$62.64	$78.3	+$15.66
└ Buvaysar Gadamauri leg	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 72¢	$64.8	$65.25	+$0.45
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Dusan Lajovicavg 16¢	$90.4	$96.05	+$5.65	48% 67-74 (141)
BA babybellsARB<$100	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 69¢	$104.97	$90.25	+$17.57	16% 68-358 (426)
└ Buvaysar Gadamauri leg	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 69¢	$51.75	$52.5	+$0.75
└ Dusan Lajovic leg	Dusan Lajovicavg 19.7¢	$24.79	$37.75	+$16.82
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Dusan Lajovicavg 19¢	$93.08	$83.28	-$9.8	22% 85-293 (378)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 86.4¢	$99.99	$81.56	-$18.43	10% 41-370 (411)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Dusan Lajovicavg 25.1¢	$71.73	$75.78	+$4.05	25% 204-624 (828)
└ Dusan Lajovic leg	Dusan Lajovicavg 25.1¢	$39.33	$43.15	+$3.82
└ Buvaysar Gadamauri leg	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 72¢	$32.4	$32.63	+$0.23
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Dusan Lajovicavg 15.7¢	$65.17	$70.52	+$5.35	52% 5320-4824 (10144)

01258787xy48487484545122

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$12,851.28

Value

$10.6K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

67%

160-80 (240)

yesmate

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$7,400

Value

$7.0K

PnL

-$350

Record

52%

177-165 (342)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Dusan Lajovic

Invested

$2,516.38

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

54%

1609-1354 (2963)

VeryLucky888

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$2,274.63

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$998.1

Record

48%

218-232 (450)

12xmrbolt

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$2,408.5

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$491.13

Record

3-34 (37)

RN1CTR

Dusan Lajovic

Invested

$1,297.15

Value

$846.55

PnL

-$450.59

Record

58%

3749-2704 (6453)

thirdt1meCTR

Dusan Lajovic

Invested

$822.28

Value

$839.33

PnL

+$121.05

Record

35%

60-113 (173)

LightParadox

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$812.74

Value

$762.64

PnL

-$50.1

Record

24%

202-637 (839)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$1,147.52

Value

$507.68

PnL

+$162.9

Record

48%

767-833 (1600)

Both legs:

Buvaysar Gadamauri$300.9466.4¢+$72.13

Dusan Lajovic$131.9920.2¢+$90.76

VenusianCTR

Dusan Lajovic

Invested

$289.55

Value

$399.75

PnL

+$110.21

Record

24%

205-642 (847)

Flaznorp

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$240.74

Value

$359.56

PnL

+$118.83

Record

50%

1387-1404 (2791)

6512395314597884CTR

Dusan Lajovic

Invested

$320

Value

$340

PnL

+$20

Record

51%

3158-3057 (6215)

suitcase6628CTR

Dusan Lajovic

Invested

$210

Value

$295

PnL

+$85

Record

64%

149-84 (233)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$240.17

Value

$290.21

PnL

+$50.05

Record

33%

287-590 (877)

Both legs:

Buvaysar Gadamauri$188.3461.9¢+$29.09

Dusan Lajovic$51.8320.3¢+$20.95

dips.CTR

Dusan Lajovic

Invested

$223.28

Value

$253.34

PnL

+$30.06

Record

42%

189-264 (453)

thestingsnakeCTR

Dusan Lajovic

Invested

$479.71

Value

$237.04

PnL

+$87.72

Record

16%

62-332 (394)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Dusan Lajovic

Invested

$639

Value

$227.2

PnL

-$411.8

Record

2-197 (199)

pauleta23

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$196

Value

$203.35

PnL

+$7.35

Record

20%

104-409 (513)

LimousinARB<$100

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$127.44

Value

$143.55

PnL

+$16.11

Record

24%

201-647 (848)

Both legs:

Dusan Lajovic$62.6422¢+$15.66

Buvaysar Gadamauri$64.872¢+$0.45

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Dusan Lajovic

Invested

$90.4

Value

$96.05

PnL

+$5.65

Record

48%

67-74 (141)

babybellsARB<$100

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$104.97

Value

$90.25

PnL

+$17.57

Record

16%

68-358 (426)

Both legs:

Buvaysar Gadamauri$51.7569¢+$0.75

Dusan Lajovic$24.7919.7¢+$16.82

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Dusan Lajovic

Invested

$93.08

Value

$83.28

PnL

-$9.8

Record

22%

85-293 (378)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$99.99

Value

$81.56

PnL

-$18.43

Record

10%

41-370 (411)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Dusan Lajovic

Invested

$71.73

Value

$75.78

PnL

+$4.05

Record

25%

204-624 (828)

Both legs:

Dusan Lajovic$39.3325.1¢+$3.82

Buvaysar Gadamauri$32.472¢+$0.23

cigarettesCTR<$100

Dusan Lajovic

Invested

$65.17

Value

$70.52

PnL

+$5.35

Record

52%

5320-4824 (10144)

Research grade

NeutralBuvaysar Gadamauri at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Buvaysar Gadamauri

11 of 28 top traders (39%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Buvaysar Gadamauri. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Buvaysar Gadamauri) and the top 1000 (28 on Dusan Lajovic) disagree here.

sharpDusan Lajovic 50% · 2

Diverging

sniperBuvaysar Gadamauri 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrDusan Lajovic 75% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedBuvaysar Gadamauri 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Dusan Lajovic 64% · 28

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Buvaysar Gadamauri wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.