Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo, while the market favors Nicolas Jarry (54%). 9 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Lima: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Nicolas Jarry

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo (56%) · Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo at 47¢ · $101K held · ends Nov 17

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo47¢Nicolas Jarry53¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Consensus Traders

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 56%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$101.3K

Combined PnL

$9.0K

Smart Money Entry

66.4¢ → 46.5¢

-30% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

9 of 16 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Nicolas Jarry 54%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo47%

Nicolas Jarry54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nicolas Jarry7 traders

Total Value$34.5K

Total Shares63,625

Combined PnL+$11.7K

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo9 traders

Total Value$35.1K

Total Shares55,582

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Nicolas Jarry — 44%Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-32 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo) and the top 1000 (14 on Nicolas Jarry) disagree here.

sharpNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNicolas Jarry 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nicolas Jarry 57% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robustmst	Nicolas Jarryavg 32.7¢	$18.0K	$29.5K	+$11.5K	47% 108-120 (228)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 67.7¢	$24.0K	$23.5K	-$414.61	54% 1625-1379 (3004)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 61.1¢	$13.2K	$14.0K	+$785.24	51% 3162-3063 (6225)
└ Nicolas Jarry leg	Nicolas Jarryavg 34.6¢	$5.0K	$7.8K	+$2.7K
└ Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo leg	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 61.1¢	$8.2K	$6.2K	$-2.0K
RN1ARB<$100	Nicolas Jarryavg 39.4¢	$13.5K	$13.0K	-$463.16	58% 3757-2710 (6467)
└ Nicolas Jarry leg	Nicolas Jarryavg 39.4¢	$10.2K	$9.9K	-$224.36
└ Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo leg	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 66.2¢	$3.3K	$3.1K	-$238.8
LI Limousin	Nicolas Jarryavg 41.5¢	$5.4K	$4.0K	+$116.14	25% 213-654 (867)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 53.8¢	$2.8K	$3.7K	+$886.41	25% 214-643 (857)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 70.5¢	$5.3K	$3.5K	$-1.8K	25% 215-633 (848)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Nicolas Jarryavg 42.5¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$104.55	50% 1408-1410 (2818)
└ Nicolas Jarry leg	Nicolas Jarryavg 42.5¢	$921.8	$1.2K	+$239.73
└ Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo leg	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 60.5¢	$584.32	$449.14	-$135.18
VE VenusianCTR	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 67.6¢	$2.3K	$1.6K	-$721.84	25% 213-654 (867)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Nicolas Jarryavg 35.6¢	$3.2K	$1.5K	+$183.69	48% 859-937 (1796)
└ Nicolas Jarry leg	Nicolas Jarryavg 35.6¢	$933.77	$1.1K	+$152.79
└ Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo leg	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 65.3¢	$459.07	$418.22	+$30.89
TH thirdt1meCTR	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 64.1¢	$5.2K	$1.4K	-$536.79	37% 70-118 (188)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 59.3¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	+$11.66	18% 72-338 (410)
tradecraft	Nicolas Jarryavg 42¢	$840	$930	+$90	16% 106-570 (676)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 62¢	$531.22	$549	+$17.79	56% 3797-2958 (6755)
└ Nicolas Jarry leg	Nicolas Jarryavg 33.8¢	$180.8	$286	+$105.2
└ Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo leg	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 62¢	$350.42	$263	-$87.41
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 64¢	$259.65	$239.64	-$20.01	52% 62-58 (120)
└ Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo leg	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 64¢	$154.88	$170.61	+$15.73
└ Nicolas Jarry leg	Nicolas Jarryavg 44.8¢	$104.77	$69.03	-$35.74
alpheclabs2ARB<$100	Nicolas Jarryavg 49¢	$277.91	$232	-$45.91	47% 74-83 (157)
└ Nicolas Jarry leg	Nicolas Jarryavg 49¢	$228.22	$176.99	-$51.23
└ Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo leg	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 56¢	$49.69	$55.02	+$5.32
machinelearnedARB<$100	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 67.7¢	$214.01	$218.97	+$4.97	35% 335-614 (949)
└ Nicolas Jarry leg	Nicolas Jarryavg 36.1¢	$90.6	$134.26	+$43.65
└ Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo leg	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 67.7¢	$123.4	$84.71	-$38.69
BA babybellsARB<$100	Nicolas Jarryavg 35.2¢	$481.44	$212.46	+$60.93	18% 78-366 (444)
└ Nicolas Jarry leg	Nicolas Jarryavg 35.2¢	$95.17	$144.56	+$74.3
└ Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo leg	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 59.6¢	$87.08	$67.9	-$13.38
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 59.7¢	$129.32	$144.1	+$14.78	53% 5376-4855 (10231)
└ Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo leg	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 59.7¢	$73.32	$89.1	+$15.78
└ Nicolas Jarry leg	Nicolas Jarryavg 28¢	$56	$55	-$1
0X 0xdeff55f3132a313985035c34539e94da7b9178f8CTR<$100	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 56¢	$56	$62	+$6	1% 2-213 (215)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 78¢	$99.99	$59.61	-$40.38	22% 118-423 (541)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 66¢	$54.1	$38.13	-$15.97	14% 73-461 (534)
OJ ojg<$100	Nicolas Jarryavg 31.6¢	$30.88	$35.63	+$4.75	38% 87-145 (232)
LR lryyy<$100	Nicolas Jarryavg 36¢	$31.68	$32.12	+$0.44	50% 151-150 (301)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Nicolas Jarryavg 56¢	$3.29	$2.23	-$1.06	37% 191-330 (521)

robustmst

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$18,000

Value

$29.5K

PnL

+$11.5K

Record

47%

108-120 (228)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$23,962.23

Value

$23.5K

PnL

-$414.61

Record

54%

1625-1379 (3004)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$13,202.38

Value

$14.0K

PnL

+$785.24

Record

51%

3162-3063 (6225)

Both legs:

Nicolas Jarry$5,013.8134.6¢+$2.7K

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo$8,188.5861.1¢$-2.0K

RN1ARB<$100

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$13,490.69

Value

$13.0K

PnL

-$463.16

Record

58%

3757-2710 (6467)

Both legs:

Nicolas Jarry$10,155.8339.4¢-$224.36

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo$3,334.8566.2¢-$238.8

Limousin

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$5,410.67

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$116.14

Record

25%

213-654 (867)

LightParadoxCTR

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$2,801.4

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$886.41

Record

25%

214-643 (857)

MadridTimeCTR

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$5,316.03

Value

$3.5K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

25%

215-633 (848)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$1,506.12

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$104.55

Record

50%

1408-1410 (2818)

Both legs:

Nicolas Jarry$921.842.5¢+$239.73

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo$584.3260.5¢-$135.18

VenusianCTR

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$2,311.95

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$721.84

Record

25%

213-654 (867)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$3,176.46

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$183.69

Record

48%

859-937 (1796)

Both legs:

Nicolas Jarry$933.7735.6¢+$152.79

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo$459.0765.3¢+$30.89

thirdt1meCTR

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$5,246.6

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$536.79

Record

37%

70-118 (188)

thestingsnakeCTR

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$1,330.95

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$11.66

Record

18%

72-338 (410)

tradecraft

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$840

Value

$930

PnL

+$90

Record

16%

106-570 (676)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$531.22

Value

$549

PnL

+$17.79

Record

56%

3797-2958 (6755)

Both legs:

Nicolas Jarry$180.833.8¢+$105.2

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo$350.4262¢-$87.41

EulhunterARB<$100

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$259.65

Value

$239.64

PnL

-$20.01

Record

52%

62-58 (120)

Both legs:

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo$154.8864¢+$15.73

Nicolas Jarry$104.7744.8¢-$35.74

alpheclabs2ARB<$100

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$277.91

Value

$232

PnL

-$45.91

Record

47%

74-83 (157)

Both legs:

Nicolas Jarry$228.2249¢-$51.23

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo$49.6956¢+$5.32

machinelearnedARB<$100

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$214.01

Value

$218.97

PnL

+$4.97

Record

35%

335-614 (949)

Both legs:

Nicolas Jarry$90.636.1¢+$43.65

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo$123.467.7¢-$38.69

babybellsARB<$100

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$481.44

Value

$212.46

PnL

+$60.93

Record

18%

78-366 (444)

Both legs:

Nicolas Jarry$95.1735.2¢+$74.3

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo$87.0859.6¢-$13.38

cigarettesARB<$100

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$129.32

Value

$144.1

PnL

+$14.78

Record

53%

5376-4855 (10231)

Both legs:

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo$73.3259.7¢+$15.78

Nicolas Jarry$5628¢-$1

0xdeff55f3132a313985035c34539e94da7b9178f8CTR<$100

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$56

Value

$62

PnL

+$6

Record

2-213 (215)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$99.99

Value

$59.61

PnL

-$40.38

Record

22%

118-423 (541)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$54.1

Value

$38.13

PnL

-$15.97

Record

14%

73-461 (534)

ojg<$100

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$30.88

Value

$35.63

PnL

+$4.75

Record

38%

87-145 (232)

lryyy<$100

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$31.68

Value

$32.12

PnL

+$0.44

Record

50%

151-150 (301)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$3.29

Value

$2.23

PnL

-$1.06

Record

37%

191-330 (521)

Research grade

NeutralNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

9 of 16 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Nicolas Jarry 54%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-32 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo) and the top 1000 (14 on Nicolas Jarry) disagree here.

sharpNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNicolas Jarry 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nicolas Jarry 57% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.