BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Alex Michelsen vs Yannick Hanfmann

8 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Alex Michelsen (38%) · Alex Michelsen at 75¢ · $36K held · ends Nov 16

Alex Michelsen75¢Yannick Hanfmann25¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alex Michelsen

Consensus Traders

Alex Michelsen 38%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$36.3K

Combined PnL

$83.66

Smart Money Entry

77.9¢ → 74.5¢

-4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlex Michelsen at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alex Michelsen

8 of 21 top traders (38%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Alex Michelsen75%

Yannick Hanfmann26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alex Michelsen8 traders

Total Value$24.8K

Total Shares32,979

Combined PnL-$905.38

Yannick Hanfmann13 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares36,932

Combined PnL+$989.04

Alex Michelsen — 38%Yannick Hanfmann — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST stuttig	Alex Michelsenavg 78.7¢	$20.0K	$19.2K	-$809.29	— 5-0 (5)
RN1CTR	Yannick Hanfmannavg 21¢	$2.2K	$2.8K	+$572.6	53% 72012-63509 (135521)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Yannick Hanfmannavg 23¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$218.51	51% 6099-5856 (11955)
0xheavy888CTR	Yannick Hanfmannavg 23.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$6.55	56% 9019-7114 (16133)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Yannick Hanfmannavg 23¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$124.78	47% 2263-2572 (4835)
PL pltrkr111	Alex Michelsenavg 76¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$30.13	55% 844-698 (1542)
RR rrooster	Alex Michelsenavg 77¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$70	63% 1411-829 (2240)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Yannick Hanfmannavg 22.9¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$142.63	48% 72152-77872 (150024)
└ Yannick Hanfmann leg	Yannick Hanfmannavg 22.9¢	$882.29	$982.77	+$105.41
└ Alex Michelsen leg	Alex Michelsenavg 68.7¢	$436.9	$474.12	+$37.22
VeryLucky888	Alex Michelsenavg 73¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$6.79	58% 53770-38280 (92050)
FL Flaznorp	Alex Michelsenavg 74.9¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$5.28	52% 49472-46424 (95896)
TRCMCTR	Yannick Hanfmannavg 23.9¢	$916.01	$939.57	+$23.57	55% 4138-3332 (7470)
1L 1lovejump	Alex Michelsenavg 74.1¢	$557.44	$560.24	+$2.8	53% 860-756 (1616)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Yannick Hanfmannavg 25¢	$202.06	$214.34	+$12.29	57% 224-169 (393)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Yannick Hanfmannavg 28¢	$162.91	$152.98	-$9.22	50% 24122-24229 (48351)
└ Yannick Hanfmann leg	Yannick Hanfmannavg 28¢	$107.38	$97.79	-$9.59
└ Alex Michelsen leg	Alex Michelsenavg 75¢	$55.53	$55.19	+$0.37
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Yannick Hanfmannavg 23.5¢	$142.35	$135.33	+$12.3	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Yannick Hanfmannavg 22.5¢	$89.46	$97.44	+$7.99	49% 3734-3959 (7693)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Yannick Hanfmannavg 24¢	$96	$92	-$4	51% 2350-2286 (4636)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Yannick Hanfmannavg 23.6¢	$76.3	$82.33	+$6.03	53% 15728-13882 (29610)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Alex Michelsenavg 74¢	$62.15	$67.79	+$5.64	53% 6834-5983 (12817)
└ Alex Michelsen leg	Alex Michelsenavg 74¢	$37	$37.25	+$0.25
└ Yannick Hanfmann leg	Yannick Hanfmannavg 21¢	$25.15	$30.54	+$5.39
machinelearned<$100	Alex Michelsenavg 75¢	$45.82	$45.42	-$0.4	54% 10539-8942 (19481)
PT PT-S7CTR<$100	Yannick Hanfmannavg 22¢	$33	$38.25	+$5.25	47% 3580-4089 (7669)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Yannick Hanfmannavg 23.5¢	$33.44	$31.44	+$2.56	53% 28354-25627 (53981)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yannick Hanfmannavg 24¢	$10	$10.63	+$0.63	65% 25734-13843 (39577)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Alex Michelsenavg 71¢	$2.45	$2.57	+$0.12	52% 6198-5720 (11918)

stuttig

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$20,024.03

Value

$19.2K

PnL

-$809.29

Record

—

5-0 (5)

RN1CTR

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$2,186.28

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$572.6

Record

53%

72012-63509 (135521)

6512395314597884CTR

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$2,040.77

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$218.51

Record

51%

6099-5856 (11955)

0xheavy888CTR

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$1,603.74

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$6.55

Record

56%

9019-7114 (16133)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$1,385.17

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$124.78

Record

47%

2263-2572 (4835)

pltrkr111

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$1,526.36

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$30.13

Record

55%

844-698 (1542)

rrooster

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$1,540

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$70

Record

63%

1411-829 (2240)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$1,372.76

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$142.63

Record

48%

72152-77872 (150024)

Both legs:

Yannick Hanfmann$882.2922.9¢+$105.41

Alex Michelsen$436.968.7¢+$37.22

VeryLucky888

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$1,042.84

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$6.79

Record

58%

53770-38280 (92050)

Flaznorp

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$1,008.14

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$5.28

Record

52%

49472-46424 (95896)

TRCMCTR

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$916.01

Value

$939.57

PnL

+$23.57

Record

55%

4138-3332 (7470)

1lovejump

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$557.44

Value

$560.24

PnL

+$2.8

Record

53%

860-756 (1616)

thirdt1meCTR

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$202.06

Value

$214.34

PnL

+$12.29

Record

57%

224-169 (393)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$162.91

Value

$152.98

PnL

-$9.22

Record

50%

24122-24229 (48351)

Both legs:

Yannick Hanfmann$107.3828¢-$9.59

Alex Michelsen$55.5375¢+$0.37

thestingsnakeCTR

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$142.35

Value

$135.33

PnL

+$12.3

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

efntrickCTR<$100

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$89.46

Value

$97.44

PnL

+$7.99

Record

49%

3734-3959 (7693)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$96

Value

$92

PnL

-$4

Record

51%

2350-2286 (4636)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$76.3

Value

$82.33

PnL

+$6.03

Record

53%

15728-13882 (29610)

EulhunterARB<$100

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$62.15

Value

$67.79

PnL

+$5.64

Record

53%

6834-5983 (12817)

Both legs:

Alex Michelsen$3774¢+$0.25

Yannick Hanfmann$25.1521¢+$5.39

machinelearned<$100

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$45.82

Value

$45.42

PnL

-$0.4

Record

54%

10539-8942 (19481)

PT-S7CTR<$100

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$33

Value

$38.25

PnL

+$5.25

Record

47%

3580-4089 (7669)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$33.44

Value

$31.44

PnL

+$2.56

Record

53%

28354-25627 (53981)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$10

Value

$10.63

PnL

+$0.63

Record

65%

25734-13843 (39577)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.57

PnL

+$0.12

Record

52%

6198-5720 (11918)

Research grade

NeutralAlex Michelsen at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alex Michelsen

8 of 21 top traders (38%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alex Michelsen wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.