Charlottesville: Daniel Milavsky vs Max Hans Rehberg

16 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Max Hans Rehberg (57%) · Max Hans Rehberg at 59¢ · $44K held · ends Nov 12

Daniel Milavsky42¢Max Hans Rehberg58¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Max Hans Rehberg

Consensus Traders

Max Hans Rehberg 57%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$43.9K

Combined PnL

$964.68

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 58.5¢

+7% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralMax Hans Rehberg at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Max Hans Rehberg

16 of 28 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Daniel Milavsky42%

Max Hans Rehberg59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Max Hans Rehberg16 traders

Total Value$25.5K

Total Shares42,130

Combined PnL+$640.19

Daniel Milavsky12 traders

Total Value$17.2K

Total Shares35,707

Combined PnL+$324.49

Max Hans Rehberg — 57%Daniel Milavsky — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Max Hans Rehbergavg 54.1¢	$11.3K	$12.6K	+$1.3K	51% 4764-4629 (9393)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Daniel Milavskyavg 42.2¢	$6.3K	$8.0K	+$1.6K	46% 431-512 (943)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Max Hans Rehbergavg 58.9¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$96.42	42% 7995-11188 (19183)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Daniel Milavskyavg 46¢	$4.0K	$3.6K	-$314.27	52% 1376-1291 (2667)
RN1	Max Hans Rehbergavg 56.5¢	$4.1K	$3.6K	-$571.46	53% 61368-53685 (115053)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Daniel Milavskyavg 51.7¢	$3.0K	$2.4K	-$682.16	50% 1324-1301 (2625)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Max Hans Rehbergavg 52¢	$2.7K	$2.2K	-$406.64	50% 542-538 (1080)
VE VenusianCTR	Daniel Milavskyavg 55.9¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$85.03	51% 1379-1343 (2722)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Max Hans Rehbergavg 54.2¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$95.73	51% 1900-1851 (3751)
38 38791873984189	Max Hans Rehbergavg 55.8¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$83.15	48% 61176-65982 (127158)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 48.4¢	$831.84	$727.67	-$104.17	53% 1423-1266 (2689)
└ Daniel Milavsky leg	Daniel Milavskyavg 48.4¢	$570.42	$477.78	-$92.64
└ Max Hans Rehberg leg	Max Hans Rehbergavg 62.2¢	$261.42	$249.89	-$11.53
FL FlaznorpCTR	Daniel Milavskyavg 47.5¢	$680.53	$551.84	-$128.68	51% 25751-24453 (50204)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Daniel Milavskyavg 49.6¢	$683.74	$474.69	-$112.93	60% 4442-2971 (7413)
VI vibing123	Max Hans Rehbergavg 50.7¢	$369.03	$462.28	+$93.25	51% 1627-1537 (3164)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 59.6¢	$648.22	$296.35	-$104.64	53% 785-708 (1493)
└ Max Hans Rehberg leg	Max Hans Rehbergavg 59.6¢	$170.87	$172.1	-$31.08
└ Daniel Milavsky leg	Daniel Milavskyavg 53.2¢	$165.29	$124.25	-$73.56
EU EulhunterCTR	Daniel Milavskyavg 48.2¢	$227.67	$250.16	+$22.49	54% 6278-5340 (11618)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 53.3¢	$143.5	$135.2	-$8.3	52% 14491-13182 (27673)
└ Max Hans Rehberg leg	Max Hans Rehbergavg 53.3¢	$75.51	$87.05	+$11.55
└ Daniel Milavsky leg	Daniel Milavskyavg 54.4¢	$68	$48.15	-$19.85
poshposh	Max Hans Rehbergavg 48¢	$119.23	$116.75	-$2.48	57% 12705-9772 (22477)
VeryLucky888	Max Hans Rehbergavg 52¢	$434.27	$116.16	-$31.67	58% 46694-33653 (80347)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 49.4¢	$78.1	$83.77	+$5.67	61% 14366-9289 (23655)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 52.9¢	$71.54	$73.03	+$1.48	50% 21174-21437 (42611)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 50¢	$55.5	$48.71	-$2.3	56% 7915-6323 (14238)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 52.2¢	$48.59	$40.92	-$7.67	54% 520-445 (965)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 49¢	$30.89	$33.41	+$2.52	50% 25823-25522 (51345)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 49¢	$9.65	$10.44	+$0.79	53% 2578-2255 (4833)

6512395314597884

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$11,327.69

Value

$12.6K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

51%

4764-4629 (9393)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$6,331.43

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

46%

431-512 (943)

ferrariChampions2026

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$3,658.42

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$96.42

Record

42%

7995-11188 (19183)

LightParadoxCTR

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$3,958.33

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$314.27

Record

52%

1376-1291 (2667)

RN1

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$4,148.36

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$571.46

Record

53%

61368-53685 (115053)

MadridTimeCTR

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$3,047.12

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$682.16

Record

50%

1324-1301 (2625)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$2,652.2

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$406.64

Record

50%

542-538 (1080)

VenusianCTR

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$1,888.46

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$85.03

Record

51%

1379-1343 (2722)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$1,220.52

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$95.73

Record

51%

1900-1851 (3751)

38791873984189

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$1,103.47

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$83.15

Record

48%

61176-65982 (127158)

LimousinARB<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$831.84

Value

$727.67

PnL

-$104.17

Record

53%

1423-1266 (2689)

Both legs:

Daniel Milavsky$570.4248.4¢-$92.64

Max Hans Rehberg$261.4262.2¢-$11.53

FlaznorpCTR

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$680.53

Value

$551.84

PnL

-$128.68

Record

51%

25751-24453 (50204)

thestingsnakeCTR

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$683.74

Value

$474.69

PnL

-$112.93

Record

60%

4442-2971 (7413)

vibing123

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$369.03

Value

$462.28

PnL

+$93.25

Record

51%

1627-1537 (3164)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$648.22

Value

$296.35

PnL

-$104.64

Record

53%

785-708 (1493)

Both legs:

Max Hans Rehberg$170.8759.6¢-$31.08

Daniel Milavsky$165.2953.2¢-$73.56

EulhunterCTR

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$227.67

Value

$250.16

PnL

+$22.49

Record

54%

6278-5340 (11618)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$143.5

Value

$135.2

PnL

-$8.3

Record

52%

14491-13182 (27673)

Both legs:

Max Hans Rehberg$75.5153.3¢+$11.55

Daniel Milavsky$6854.4¢-$19.85

poshposh

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$119.23

Value

$116.75

PnL

-$2.48

Record

57%

12705-9772 (22477)

VeryLucky888

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$434.27

Value

$116.16

PnL

-$31.67

Record

58%

46694-33653 (80347)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$78.1

Value

$83.77

PnL

+$5.67

Record

61%

14366-9289 (23655)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$71.54

Value

$73.03

PnL

+$1.48

Record

50%

21174-21437 (42611)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$55.5

Value

$48.71

PnL

-$2.3

Record

56%

7915-6323 (14238)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$48.59

Value

$40.92

PnL

-$7.67

Record

54%

520-445 (965)

sentrioCTR<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$30.89

Value

$33.41

PnL

+$2.52

Record

50%

25823-25522 (51345)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$9.65

Value

$10.44

PnL

+$0.79

Record

53%

2578-2255 (4833)

Research grade

NeutralMax Hans Rehberg at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Max Hans Rehberg

16 of 28 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Max Hans Rehberg wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.