Knoxville: Trevor Svajda vs Max Hans Rehberg

20 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Max Hans Rehberg (69%) · Max Hans Rehberg at 100¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 16

Trevor Svajda<1¢Max Hans Rehberg>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Max Hans Rehberg

Consensus Traders

Max Hans Rehberg 69%

Total Value

$20.1K

Combined PnL

$60.01

Smart Money Entry

86.5¢ → 100¢

+15% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralMax Hans Rehberg at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Max Hans Rehberg

20 of 29 top traders (69%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Trevor Svajda0%

Max Hans Rehberg100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Max Hans Rehberg20 traders

Total Value$19.4K

Total Shares19,546

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Trevor Svajda9 traders

Total Value$608.64

Total Shares9,673

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Max Hans Rehberg — 69%Trevor Svajda — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+19 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

72% of non-arb traders are on Max Hans Rehberg. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMax Hans Rehberg 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrMax Hans Rehberg 63% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedMax Hans Rehberg 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Max Hans Rehberg 72% · 29

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Max Hans Rehbergavg 90.9¢	$5.8K	$6.1K	+$223.03	54% 233-201 (434)
38 38791873984189	Max Hans Rehbergavg 86.2¢	$3.5K	$3.7K	+$388.93	49% 383-404 (787)
TH thirdt1me	Max Hans Rehbergavg 84.6¢	$2.8K	$3.3K	+$499.07	0% 0-34 (34)
MA MadridTime	Max Hans Rehbergavg 86.3¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$92.19	25% 86-262 (348)
LI Limousin	Max Hans Rehbergavg 87.1¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$121.94	24% 90-282 (372)
FL Flaznorp	Max Hans Rehbergavg 77.3¢	$445.08	$503.98	+$59.04	52% 242-224 (466)
0xheavy888	Max Hans Rehbergavg 59¢	$214.86	$363.99	+$149.13	69% 29-13 (42)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Max Hans Rehbergavg 89.1¢	$351.99	$357.09	+$5.1	39% 41-64 (105)
SH shiifoo	Max Hans Rehbergavg 88.2¢	$276.03	$309.87	+$33.84	57% 16-12 (28)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Trevor Svajdaavg 13.1¢	$551.04	$283.68	-$267.36	30% 105-246 (351)
OJ ojg	Max Hans Rehbergavg 88.8¢	$251.24	$271.44	+$18.15	33% 48-99 (147)
CI cigarettes	Max Hans Rehbergavg 93.1¢	$232.75	$247.5	+$14.75	38% 93-154 (247)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Trevor Svajdaavg 36.6¢	$432.13	$210.08	-$196.25	26% 87-252 (339)
BA babybells	Max Hans Rehbergavg 79.4¢	$127.01	$150.94	+$23.93	0% 0-93 (93)
EU Eulhunter	Max Hans Rehbergavg 81¢	$146.56	$125.86	-$21.61	55% 34-28 (62)
machinelearned	Max Hans Rehbergavg 67.6¢	$87.46	$105.16	+$17.7	44% 148-190 (338)
GA Gaditima<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 71.9¢	$71.93	$99	+$28.02	48% 32-35 (67)
TRCM<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 59¢	$47.79	$80.19	+$11.75	14% 20-128 (148)
VE Venusian<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 95¢	$68.48	$65.05	-$2.89	23% 82-268 (350)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Trevor Svajdaavg 27.9¢	$610.36	$54.8	-$443.97	25% 37-109 (146)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 78.2¢	$50.93	$46.81	-$4.12	14% 30-180 (210)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Trevor Svajdaavg 17.8¢	$658	$37	-$656.14	5% 4-76 (80)
PA Pan9X<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 59¢	$31	$30.98	+$12.69	48% 173-188 (361)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Trevor Svajdaavg 41¢	$23.65	$21.58	-$1.95	32% 68-143 (211)
SC SchruteBucks<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 67.4¢	$72.64	$1.77	+$6.48	20% 38-153 (191)

RN1

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$5,829.55

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$223.03

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

38791873984189

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$3,479.99

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$388.93

Record

49%

383-404 (787)

thirdt1me

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$2,754.86

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$499.07

Record

0-34 (34)

MadridTime

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$2,130.7

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$92.19

Record

25%

86-262 (348)

Limousin

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$1,305.01

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$121.94

Record

24%

90-282 (372)

Flaznorp

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$445.08

Value

$503.98

PnL

+$59.04

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

0xheavy888

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$214.86

Value

$363.99

PnL

+$149.13

Record

69%

29-13 (42)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$351.99

Value

$357.09

PnL

+$5.1

Record

39%

41-64 (105)

shiifoo

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$276.03

Value

$309.87

PnL

+$33.84

Record

57%

16-12 (28)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$551.04

Value

$283.68

PnL

-$267.36

Record

30%

105-246 (351)

ojg

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$251.24

Value

$271.44

PnL

+$18.15

Record

33%

48-99 (147)

cigarettes

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$232.75

Value

$247.5

PnL

+$14.75

Record

38%

93-154 (247)

LightParadoxCTR

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$432.13

Value

$210.08

PnL

-$196.25

Record

26%

87-252 (339)

babybells

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$127.01

Value

$150.94

PnL

+$23.93

Record

0-93 (93)

Eulhunter

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$146.56

Value

$125.86

PnL

-$21.61

Record

55%

34-28 (62)

machinelearned

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$87.46

Value

$105.16

PnL

+$17.7

Record

44%

148-190 (338)

Gaditima<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$71.93

Value

$99

PnL

+$28.02

Record

48%

32-35 (67)

TRCM<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$47.79

Value

$80.19

PnL

+$11.75

Record

14%

20-128 (148)

Venusian<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$68.48

Value

$65.05

PnL

-$2.89

Record

23%

82-268 (350)

thestingsnakeCTR

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$610.36

Value

$54.8

PnL

-$443.97

Record

25%

37-109 (146)

BillBenter2026<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$50.93

Value

$46.81

PnL

-$4.12

Record

14%

30-180 (210)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$658

Value

$37

PnL

-$656.14

Record

4-76 (80)

Pan9X<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$31

Value

$30.98

PnL

+$12.69

Record

48%

173-188 (361)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$23.65

Value

$21.58

PnL

-$1.95

Record

32%

68-143 (211)

SchruteBucks<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$72.64

Value

$1.77

PnL

+$6.48

Record

20%

38-153 (191)

Research grade

NeutralMax Hans Rehberg at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Max Hans Rehberg

20 of 29 top traders (69%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+19 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

72% of non-arb traders are on Max Hans Rehberg. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMax Hans Rehberg 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrMax Hans Rehberg 63% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedMax Hans Rehberg 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Max Hans Rehberg 72% · 29

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Max Hans Rehberg wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.