Bratislava 2: Dalibor Svrcina vs Zsombor Piros

15 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold Dalibor Svrcina (50%) · Dalibor Svrcina at 84¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 13

Dalibor Svrcina84¢Zsombor Piros16¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dalibor Svrcina

Consensus Traders

Dalibor Svrcina 50%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$32.3K

Combined PnL

$571.79

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 83.5¢

+55% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralDalibor Svrcina at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dalibor Svrcina

15 of 30 top traders (50%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Dalibor Svrcina84%

Zsombor Piros17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dalibor Svrcina15 traders

Total Value$21.7K

Total Shares25,519

Combined PnL+$4.9K

Zsombor Piros15 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares27,220

Combined PnL$-4.4K

Dalibor Svrcina — 50%Zsombor Piros — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 38.7¢	$2.9K	$5.8K	+$2.9K	51% 1642-1552 (3194)
MA MadridTime	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 51.2¢	$4.3K	$4.8K	+$540.13	49% 1542-1626 (3168)
VE Venusian	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 51.8¢	$3.2K	$4.5K	+$1.3K	50% 1602-1633 (3235)
VeryLucky888CTR	Zsombor Pirosavg 45.3¢	$3.8K	$2.5K	-$832.59	58% 47061-33943 (81004)
0X 0xNuttawut	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 54.2¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$66.77	51% 1231-1198 (2429)
ES esticamos	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 83.8¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$31.05	50% 188-185 (373)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Zsombor Pirosavg 55.2¢	$3.6K	$1.9K	$-1.1K	48% 61881-66739 (128620)
└ Dalibor Svrcina leg	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 63.1¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$328.48
└ Zsombor Piros leg	Zsombor Pirosavg 55.2¢	$1.8K	$556.92	$-1.5K
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Zsombor Pirosavg 35.1¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$209.76	50% 1587-1606 (3193)
└ Zsombor Piros leg	Zsombor Pirosavg 35.1¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$49.57
└ Dalibor Svrcina leg	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 41¢	$418.02	$677.34	+$259.32
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Zsombor Pirosavg 36¢	$2.5K	$1.2K	$-1.3K	42% 8075-11277 (19352)
PA Paul973973	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 81.8¢	$1.0K	$993.83	-$15.67	88% 1052-137 (1189)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Zsombor Pirosavg 40.5¢	$1.8K	$802.36	$-1.0K	51% 4826-4689 (9515)
RN1CTR	Zsombor Pirosavg 30.6¢	$1.4K	$774.2	-$579.01	53% 61769-54057 (115826)
TH thestingsnake	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 53.5¢	$605.22	$571.56	+$159.7	60% 4483-2991 (7474)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 68.7¢	$345.71	$344.8	-$0.91	59% 33085-23264 (56349)
PA pauleta23ARB<$100	Zsombor Pirosavg 60.4¢	$753.77	$328.82	-$424.95	66% 24355-12430 (36785)
└ Dalibor Svrcina leg	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 61.9¢	$149.48	$213.84	+$64.36
└ Zsombor Piros leg	Zsombor Pirosavg 60.4¢	$604.3	$114.98	-$489.31
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Zsombor Pirosavg 35.1¢	$351.22	$280	-$71.22	46% 1668-1953 (3621)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Zsombor Pirosavg 50.6¢	$814.85	$265.63	-$549.22	51% 26324-24949 (51273)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Zsombor Pirosavg 44¢	$264	$258	-$6	51% 1985-1918 (3903)
1L 1lovejump	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 64.9¢	$459.02	$242.16	-$22.81	53% 811-718 (1529)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Zsombor Pirosavg 46.8¢	$137.58	$158.53	+$20.95	54% 6305-5372 (11677)
└ Zsombor Piros leg	Zsombor Pirosavg 46.8¢	$69.5	$95.69	+$26.2
└ Dalibor Svrcina leg	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 38.5¢	$68.09	$62.83	-$5.25
tradecraftARB<$100	Zsombor Pirosavg 35.9¢	$153.65	$154.31	+$0.65	51% 6444-6225 (12669)
└ Zsombor Piros leg	Zsombor Pirosavg 35.9¢	$95.26	$91.43	-$3.83
└ Dalibor Svrcina leg	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 60.8¢	$58.4	$62.88	+$4.48
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 60.8¢	$142.26	$138.18	-$4.09	52% 14589-13274 (27863)
SE sentrioCTR	Zsombor Pirosavg 17¢	$114.44	$117.8	+$3.37	50% 26097-25756 (51853)
DA darkumbreon88	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 54¢	$98.25	$101.95	+$2.79	64% 2011-1119 (3130)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Zsombor Pirosavg 43¢	$62.35	$63.79	+$1.45	64% 10069-5627 (15696)

Limousin

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$2,911.03

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

51%

1642-1552 (3194)

MadridTime

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$4,258.97

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$540.13

Record

49%

1542-1626 (3168)

Venusian

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$3,168.43

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

50%

1602-1633 (3235)

VeryLucky888CTR

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$3,802.18

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$832.59

Record

58%

47061-33943 (81004)

0xNuttawut

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$2,000.07

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$66.77

Record

51%

1231-1198 (2429)

esticamos

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$2,018.99

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$31.05

Record

50%

188-185 (373)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$3,573.23

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

48%

61881-66739 (128620)

Both legs:

Dalibor Svrcina$1,044.363.1¢+$328.48

Zsombor Piros$1,809.1755.2¢$-1.5K

LightParadoxARB<$100

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$1,491.33

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$209.76

Record

50%

1587-1606 (3193)

Both legs:

Zsombor Piros$1,073.3135.1¢-$49.57

Dalibor Svrcina$418.0241¢+$259.32

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$2,470.74

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

42%

8075-11277 (19352)

Paul973973

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$1,009.5

Value

$993.83

PnL

-$15.67

Record

88%

1052-137 (1189)

6512395314597884CTR

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$1,824.42

Value

$802.36

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

51%

4826-4689 (9515)

RN1CTR

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$1,353.21

Value

$774.2

PnL

-$579.01

Record

53%

61769-54057 (115826)

thestingsnake

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$605.22

Value

$571.56

PnL

+$159.7

Record

60%

4483-2991 (7474)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$345.71

Value

$344.8

PnL

-$0.91

Record

59%

33085-23264 (56349)

pauleta23ARB<$100

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$753.77

Value

$328.82

PnL

-$424.95

Record

66%

24355-12430 (36785)

Both legs:

Dalibor Svrcina$149.4861.9¢+$64.36

Zsombor Piros$604.360.4¢-$489.31

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$351.22

Value

$280

PnL

-$71.22

Record

46%

1668-1953 (3621)

FlaznorpCTR

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$814.85

Value

$265.63

PnL

-$549.22

Record

51%

26324-24949 (51273)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$264

Value

$258

PnL

-$6

Record

51%

1985-1918 (3903)

1lovejump

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$459.02

Value

$242.16

PnL

-$22.81

Record

53%

811-718 (1529)

EulhunterARB<$100

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$137.58

Value

$158.53

PnL

+$20.95

Record

54%

6305-5372 (11677)

Both legs:

Zsombor Piros$69.546.8¢+$26.2

Dalibor Svrcina$68.0938.5¢-$5.25

tradecraftARB<$100

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$153.65

Value

$154.31

PnL

+$0.65

Record

51%

6444-6225 (12669)

Both legs:

Zsombor Piros$95.2635.9¢-$3.83

Dalibor Svrcina$58.460.8¢+$4.48

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$142.26

Value

$138.18

PnL

-$4.09

Record

52%

14589-13274 (27863)

sentrioCTR

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$114.44

Value

$117.8

PnL

+$3.37

Record

50%

26097-25756 (51853)

darkumbreon88

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$98.25

Value

$101.95

PnL

+$2.79

Record

64%

2011-1119 (3130)

NM-PCTR<$100

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$62.35

Value

$63.79

PnL

+$1.45

Record

64%

10069-5627 (15696)

Research grade

NeutralDalibor Svrcina at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Dalibor Svrcina

15 of 30 top traders (50%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dalibor Svrcina wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.