BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Elias Ymer vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo

15 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Juan Manuel Cerundolo (58%) · Juan Manuel Cerundolo at 93¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 15

Elias Ymer8¢Juan Manuel Cerundolo92¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Consensus Traders

Juan Manuel Cerundolo 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.7K

Combined PnL

$-3.4K

Smart Money Entry

76.3¢ → 92.5¢

+21% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralJuan Manuel Cerundolo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

15 of 26 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Elias Ymer8%

Juan Manuel Cerundolo93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Juan Manuel Cerundolo15 traders

Total Value$24.3K

Total Shares31,303

Combined PnL-$381.74

Elias Ymer11 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares32,914

Combined PnL$-3.0K

Juan Manuel Cerundolo — 58%Elias Ymer — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 74¢	$13.8K	$13.4K	-$471.41	50% 4741-4676 (9417)
K5 k56	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 77.7¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$56.92	58% 902-666 (1568)
SE sentrio	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 74¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$43.09	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Elias Ymeravg 26¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$38.46	55% 790-658 (1448)
FL Flaznorp	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 92.5¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$120.97	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
HI hi774c	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 73¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$268.05	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Elias Ymeravg 26.4¢	$2.9K	$1.3K	$-1.6K	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
└ Elias Ymer leg	Elias Ymeravg 26.4¢	$2.5K	$802.36	$-1.7K
└ Juan Manuel Cerundolo leg	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 84¢	$420	$457.5	+$37.5
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Elias Ymeravg 25.7¢	$3.2K	$1.1K	$-2.1K	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
PA Paul973973	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 90¢	$1,000	$1.0K	+$27.78	89% 1073-138 (1211)
LI LightParadox	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 89.4¢	$955.84	$904.99	-$50.85	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Elias Ymeravg 26.8¢	$1.4K	$781.59	-$570.34	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
LI LimousinCTR	Elias Ymeravg 28¢	$765.67	$779.34	+$13.67	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
1L 1lovejump	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 83.7¢	$909.08	$493.45	+$26.87	53% 828-732 (1560)
0xheavy888	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 72¢	$480.24	$476.91	-$3.34	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Elias Ymeravg 8.3¢	$211.58	$191.79	-$19.79	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
RN1CTR	Elias Ymeravg 28¢	$435.4	$163.28	-$272.13	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
VeryLucky888	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 71¢	$1.0K	$141.66	+$46.78	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
EF efntrick	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 74¢	$88.8	$111	-$3	48% 3689-3932 (7621)
VE VenusianCTR	Elias Ymeravg 24.9¢	$104.11	$100.3	-$3.81	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
PA Pan9X<$100	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 73.7¢	$83.65	$70.02	+$0.57	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 73.8¢	$71.61	$69.41	-$2.2	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 93¢	$62.45	$62.4	-$0.05	54% 6333-5398 (11731)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Elias Ymeravg 8¢	$27.86	$26.98	-$0.88	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 92¢	$9.2	$9.25	+$0.05	57% 19479-14427 (33906)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Elias Ymeravg 13.3¢	$11.31	$6.36	-$4.94	64% 5377-2997 (8374)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$13,839.04

Value

$13.4K

PnL

-$471.41

Record

50%

4741-4676 (9417)

k56

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$2,528.92

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$56.92

Record

58%

902-666 (1568)

sentrio

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$2,493.66

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$43.09

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

pltrkr111CTR

Elias Ymer

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$38.46

Record

55%

790-658 (1448)

Flaznorp

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$1,487.13

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$120.97

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

hi774c

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$1,020.02

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$268.05

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Elias Ymer

Invested

$2,907.43

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

Both legs:

Elias Ymer$2,487.4326.4¢$-1.7K

Juan Manuel Cerundolo$42084¢+$37.5

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Elias Ymer

Invested

$3,201.43

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

Paul973973

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$27.78

Record

89%

1073-138 (1211)

LightParadox

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$955.84

Value

$904.99

PnL

-$50.85

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Elias Ymer

Invested

$1,351.93

Value

$781.59

PnL

-$570.34

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

LimousinCTR

Elias Ymer

Invested

$765.67

Value

$779.34

PnL

+$13.67

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

1lovejump

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$909.08

Value

$493.45

PnL

+$26.87

Record

53%

828-732 (1560)

0xheavy888

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$480.24

Value

$476.91

PnL

-$3.34

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

6512395314597884CTR

Elias Ymer

Invested

$211.58

Value

$191.79

PnL

-$19.79

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

RN1CTR

Elias Ymer

Invested

$435.4

Value

$163.28

PnL

-$272.13

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

VeryLucky888

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$1,040.23

Value

$141.66

PnL

+$46.78

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

efntrick

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$88.8

Value

$111

PnL

-$3

Record

48%

3689-3932 (7621)

VenusianCTR

Elias Ymer

Invested

$104.11

Value

$100.3

PnL

-$3.81

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

Pan9X<$100

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$83.65

Value

$70.02

PnL

+$0.57

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

darkumbreon88<$100

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$71.61

Value

$69.41

PnL

-$2.2

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

Eulhunter<$100

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$62.45

Value

$62.4

PnL

-$0.05

Record

54%

6333-5398 (11731)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Elias Ymer

Invested

$27.86

Value

$26.98

PnL

-$0.88

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

BillBenter2026<$100

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$9.2

Value

$9.25

PnL

+$0.05

Record

57%

19479-14427 (33906)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Elias Ymer

Invested

$11.31

Value

$6.36

PnL

-$4.94

Record

64%

5377-2997 (8374)

Research grade

NeutralJuan Manuel Cerundolo at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

15 of 26 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Juan Manuel Cerundolo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.