Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-11-01?

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (53%) · No at 100¢ · $61K held · ended Nov 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 53%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$61.4K

Combined PnL

$-2.4K

Smart Money Entry

88.1¢ → 99.9¢

+13% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 17 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$58.4K

Total Shares65,275

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Yes8 traders

Total Value$127.13

Total Shares2,400

Combined PnL-$45.5

No — 53%Yes — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
99 999585	Noavg 86.9¢	$33.9K	$33.3K	-$535	97% 37-1 (38)
MO Momo63	Noavg 95¢	$12.9K	$13.0K	+$73.49	93% 879-63 (942)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 84.2¢	$9.6K	$8.1K	$-1.4K	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 81.7¢	$3.3K	$2.7K	-$614.34	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
└ No leg	Noavg 81.7¢	$1.7K	$2.0K	+$292.9
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 10.4¢	$1.6K	$696.64	-$907.24
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 83¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$47.88	67% 2646-1285 (3931)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 86.4¢	$725.35	$741.04	+$15.7	52% 13930-12706 (26636)
TO torta.tech	Noavg 80.5¢	$679.45	$649.55	-$29.9	62% 8225-4938 (13163)
RN1	Noavg 98.5¢	$932.36	$531.66	-$400.7	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Noavg 83¢	$127.39	$126	-$1.39	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
└ No leg	Noavg 83¢	$99.6	$100.2	+$0.6
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 17.8¢	$27.79	$25.8	-$1.99
AN Anon455<$100	Noavg 82.6¢	$81.21	$92.91	+$11.71	55% 3010-2439 (5449)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$58.86	$40.88	-$17.98	61% 13793-8671 (22464)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$26.76	$29.44	+$2.68	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.8¢	$40.06	$18.8	-$21.26	53% 5642-5057 (10699)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.5¢	$25.01	$11.93	-$13.08	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$11.7	$10.92	-$0.78	63% 1792-1071 (2863)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Noavg 97¢	$10.46	$10.51	+$0.05	58% 2242-1654 (3896)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$4.25	$7.5	+$3.25	58% 10670-7658 (18328)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$5.05	$6.75	+$1.7	48% 8966-9599 (18565)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$2	$0.91	-$0.03	53% 2250-1980 (4230)

999585

Invested

$33,880

Value

$33.3K

PnL

-$535

Record

97%

37-1 (38)

Momo63

Invested

$12,893.29

Value

$13.0K

PnL

+$73.49

Record

93%

879-63 (942)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$9,553.8

Value

$8.1K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$3,338.03

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$614.34

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Both legs:

No$1,734.1581.7¢+$292.9

Yes$1,603.8910.4¢-$907.24

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$1,987.09

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$47.88

Record

67%

2646-1285 (3931)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$725.35

Value

$741.04

PnL

+$15.7

Record

52%

13930-12706 (26636)

torta.tech

Invested

$679.45

Value

$649.55

PnL

-$29.9

Record

62%

8225-4938 (13163)

RN1

Invested

$932.36

Value

$531.66

PnL

-$400.7

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

fooooolARB<$100

Invested

$127.39

Value

$126

PnL

-$1.39

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

Both legs:

No$99.683¢+$0.6

Yes$27.7917.8¢-$1.99

Anon455<$100

Invested

$81.21

Value

$92.91

PnL

+$11.71

Record

55%

3010-2439 (5449)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.86

Value

$40.88

PnL

-$17.98

Record

61%

13793-8671 (22464)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.76

Value

$29.44

PnL

+$2.68

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.06

Value

$18.8

PnL

-$21.26

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.01

Value

$11.93

PnL

-$13.08

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.7

Value

$10.92

PnL

-$0.78

Record

63%

1792-1071 (2863)

NordhavenCap<$100

Invested

$10.46

Value

$10.51

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

2242-1654 (3896)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.25

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$3.25

Record

58%

10670-7658 (18328)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.05

Value

$6.75

PnL

+$1.7

Record

48%

8966-9599 (18565)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$0.03

Record

53%

2250-1980 (4230)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

9 of 17 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.