Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-11-07?

16 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $33K held · ended Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$32.9K

Combined PnL

$4.1K

Smart Money Entry

57.5¢ → 100¢

+74% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 24 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$13.3K

Total Shares25,974

Combined PnL+$2.3K

No16 traders

Total Value$15.8K

Total Shares24,281

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Yesavg 42¢	$7.1K	$8.0K	+$934.26	47% 206-230 (436)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 57.4¢	$5.6K	$6.2K	+$588.6	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
BI big8betzCTR	Yesavg 44.2¢	$3.1K	$4.5K	+$1.4K	49% 47-49 (96)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 57.4¢	$4.9K	$3.7K	$-1.1K	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
└ No leg	Noavg 57.4¢	$3.2K	$2.0K	$-1.2K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 60¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$120.65
AN Anon455	Noavg 57.5¢	$2.6K	$2.9K	+$275.3	55% 3804-3137 (6941)
NM NM-P	Noavg 57.9¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$286.69	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
GC GC-P	Noavg 57.9¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$286.07	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
FaroeseNationalist	Noavg 57¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$144.43	49% 577-595 (1172)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 57.3¢	$977.01	$1.0K	+$142.67	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
nigiri99CTR	Yesavg 46.2¢	$678.61	$670.02	-$8.59	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 59¢	$353.99	$380.99	+$27	51% 2058-1996 (4054)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 56.8¢	$139.33	$163.11	+$23.78	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
SE sentrio	Noavg 59¢	$146.75	$157.94	+$11.19	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
tradecraft	Noavg 57.3¢	$96.25	$106.64	+$10.39	51% 6512-6277 (12789)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 56.3¢	$67.5	$69.64	+$2.15	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
oieshfn345CTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$81.36	$66	-$15.37	57% 2111-1562 (3673)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$39.72	$33.27	-$6.45	46% 1791-2100 (3891)
RN1<$100	Noavg 55¢	$17.31	$19.99	+$2.68	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 60.2¢	$19.07	$18.69	-$0.38	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 57¢	$14	$15.6	+$1.6	55% 1426-1175 (2601)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$18.4	$14.6	-$3.8	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$17.04	$13.52	-$3.52	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$6.71	$5.96	-$0.75	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 59¢	$2.94	$3.27	+$0.32	52% 9018-8169 (17187)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 56¢	$2.52	$1.64	-$0.88	66% 24445-12494 (36939)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Yes

Invested

$7,105.26

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$934.26

Record

47%

206-230 (436)

Flaznorp

Invested

$5,575.23

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$588.6

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

big8betzCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,085.5

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

49%

47-49 (96)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$4,850.9

Value

$3.7K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

Both legs:

No$3,242.3157.4¢$-1.2K

Yes$1,608.660¢+$120.65

Anon455

Invested

$2,644.39

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$275.3

Record

55%

3804-3137 (6941)

NM-P

Invested

$1,378.32

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$286.69

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

GC-P

Invested

$1,375.57

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$286.07

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

FaroeseNationalist

Invested

$1,266.54

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$144.43

Record

49%

577-595 (1172)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$977.01

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$142.67

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

nigiri99CTR

Yes

Invested

$678.61

Value

$670.02

PnL

-$8.59

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$353.99

Value

$380.99

PnL

+$27

Record

51%

2058-1996 (4054)

38791873984189

Invested

$139.33

Value

$163.11

PnL

+$23.78

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

sentrio

Invested

$146.75

Value

$157.94

PnL

+$11.19

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

tradecraft

Invested

$96.25

Value

$106.64

PnL

+$10.39

Record

51%

6512-6277 (12789)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$67.5

Value

$69.64

PnL

+$2.15

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

oieshfn345CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.36

Value

$66

PnL

-$15.37

Record

57%

2111-1562 (3673)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.72

Value

$33.27

PnL

-$6.45

Record

46%

1791-2100 (3891)

RN1<$100

Invested

$17.31

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$2.68

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$19.07

Value

$18.69

PnL

-$0.38

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$14

Value

$15.6

PnL

+$1.6

Record

55%

1426-1175 (2601)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.4

Value

$14.6

PnL

-$3.8

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.04

Value

$13.52

PnL

-$3.52

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.71

Value

$5.96

PnL

-$0.75

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$2.94

Value

$3.27

PnL

+$0.32

Record

52%

9018-8169 (17187)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$2.52

Value

$1.64

PnL

-$0.88

Record

66%

24445-12494 (36939)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 24 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.