Spread: UTSA (-7.5)

15 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Florida Atlantic (63%) · Florida Atlantic at 88¢ · $52K held · ended Nov 6

UTSA13¢Florida Atlantic87¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Florida Atlantic

Consensus Traders

Florida Atlantic 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$52.0K

Combined PnL

-$504.09

Smart Money Entry

53.2¢ → 87.5¢

+64% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralFlorida Atlantic at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Florida Atlantic

15 of 24 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

UTSA13%

Florida Atlantic88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UTSA9 traders

Total Value$16.3K

Total Shares47,639

Combined PnL$-6.2K

Florida Atlantic15 traders

Total Value$34.1K

Total Shares52,549

Combined PnL+$5.7K

UTSA — 38%Florida Atlantic — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	UTSAavg 47.4¢	$11.8K	$10.0K	$-1.8K	52% 6135-5765 (11900)
esportsbetter1	Florida Atlanticavg 53.3¢	$8.1K	$9.1K	+$1.0K	49% 181-192 (373)
PU purplegatto	Florida Atlanticavg 50¢	$4.3K	$7.1K	+$2.8K	49% 6296-6457 (12753)
HO HomeRunHazard	Florida Atlanticavg 53¢	$5.3K	$6.1K	+$705.32	54% 18232-15346 (33578)
ME metski29	Florida Atlanticavg 54¢	$4.9K	$5.5K	+$543.27	45% 342-420 (762)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	UTSAavg 47.7¢	$4.8K	$4.0K	-$774.73	53% 6265-5545 (11810)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR	UTSAavg 47¢	$5.1K	$1.8K	$-3.3K	53% 1353-1176 (2529)
CM cm2897ARB<$100	UTSAavg 36.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$73.28	51% 2168-2100 (4268)
└ UTSA leg	UTSAavg 36.2¢	$915.74	$1.0K	+$94.94
└ Florida Atlantic leg	Florida Atlanticavg 64.1¢	$341.37	$319.71	-$21.66
VeryLucky888	Florida Atlanticavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$142.64	58% 46729-33688 (80417)
65 6512395314597884	Florida Atlanticavg 63.3¢	$922.56	$874.19	-$48.37	51% 4772-4633 (9405)
PL pltrkr111	Florida Atlanticavg 52¢	$752.77	$868.58	+$115.81	54% 772-645 (1417)
38 38791873984189	Florida Atlanticavg 53¢	$636.93	$856.51	+$219.58	48% 61256-66065 (127321)
RN1	Florida Atlanticavg 65¢	$673.09	$743.79	+$70.7	53% 61400-53704 (115104)
SE sentrio	Florida Atlanticavg 52¢	$519.98	$599.98	+$5	50% 25844-25552 (51396)
nigiri99	Florida Atlanticavg 53.7¢	$468.14	$522.6	+$54.46	46% 8596-10247 (18843)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Florida Atlanticavg 53.7¢	$319.79	$354	+$34.21	53% 12169-10675 (22844)
└ Florida Atlantic leg	Florida Atlanticavg 53.7¢	$221.44	$247.2	+$25.76
└ UTSA leg	UTSAavg 36.8¢	$98.36	$106.8	+$8.44
NM NM-P	Florida Atlanticavg 53¢	$185.5	$210	+$24.5	64% 9930-5532 (15462)
GC GC-P	Florida Atlanticavg 53¢	$185.5	$210	+$24.5	64% 9971-5600 (15571)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR	UTSAavg 48.7¢	$222.85	$182.86	-$39.99	49% 376-399 (775)
PA Pan9X	Florida Atlanticavg 65.3¢	$143.25	$115.9	+$17.65	54% 9751-8144 (17895)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	UTSAavg 42¢	$210.83	$102.91	-$107.93	42% 8009-11197 (19206)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	UTSAavg 47¢	$282	$99	-$177	51% 1905-1854 (3759)
tradecraftCTR<$100	UTSAavg 43.7¢	$83.36	$76.24	-$7.12	51% 6362-6143 (12505)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Florida Atlanticavg 62.4¢	$36.47	$33.7	-$2.76	47% 11750-13484 (25234)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	UTSAavg 46¢	$30.26	$26.31	-$3.95	48% 347-378 (725)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

UTSA

Invested

$11,849.17

Value

$10.0K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

52%

6135-5765 (11900)

esportsbetter1

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$8,116.46

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

49%

181-192 (373)

purplegatto

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$4,305.99

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

49%

6296-6457 (12753)

HomeRunHazard

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$5,344.69

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$705.32

Record

54%

18232-15346 (33578)

metski29

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$4,911.86

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$543.27

Record

45%

342-420 (762)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

UTSA

Invested

$4,774.73

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$774.73

Record

53%

6265-5545 (11810)

TAIWANNUMBERONECTR

UTSA

Invested

$5,064.91

Value

$1.8K

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

53%

1353-1176 (2529)

cm2897ARB<$100

UTSA

Invested

$1,257.11

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$73.28

Record

51%

2168-2100 (4268)

Both legs:

UTSA$915.7436.2¢+$94.94

Florida Atlantic$341.3764.1¢-$21.66

VeryLucky888

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$1,083.76

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$142.64

Record

58%

46729-33688 (80417)

6512395314597884

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$922.56

Value

$874.19

PnL

-$48.37

Record

51%

4772-4633 (9405)

pltrkr111

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$752.77

Value

$868.58

PnL

+$115.81

Record

54%

772-645 (1417)

38791873984189

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$636.93

Value

$856.51

PnL

+$219.58

Record

48%

61256-66065 (127321)

RN1

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$673.09

Value

$743.79

PnL

+$70.7

Record

53%

61400-53704 (115104)

sentrio

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$519.98

Value

$599.98

PnL

+$5

Record

50%

25844-25552 (51396)

nigiri99

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$468.14

Value

$522.6

PnL

+$54.46

Record

46%

8596-10247 (18843)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$319.79

Value

$354

PnL

+$34.21

Record

53%

12169-10675 (22844)

Both legs:

Florida Atlantic$221.4453.7¢+$25.76

UTSA$98.3636.8¢+$8.44

NM-P

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$185.5

Value

$210

PnL

+$24.5

Record

64%

9930-5532 (15462)

GC-P

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$185.5

Value

$210

PnL

+$24.5

Record

64%

9971-5600 (15571)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR

UTSA

Invested

$222.85

Value

$182.86

PnL

-$39.99

Record

49%

376-399 (775)

Pan9X

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$143.25

Value

$115.9

PnL

+$17.65

Record

54%

9751-8144 (17895)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

UTSA

Invested

$210.83

Value

$102.91

PnL

-$107.93

Record

42%

8009-11197 (19206)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

UTSA

Invested

$282

Value

$99

PnL

-$177

Record

51%

1905-1854 (3759)

tradecraftCTR<$100

UTSA

Invested

$83.36

Value

$76.24

PnL

-$7.12

Record

51%

6362-6143 (12505)

topdogbigboi<$100

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$36.47

Value

$33.7

PnL

-$2.76

Record

47%

11750-13484 (25234)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

UTSA

Invested

$30.26

Value

$26.31

PnL

-$3.95

Record

48%

347-378 (725)

Research grade

NeutralFlorida Atlantic at 88%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Florida Atlantic

15 of 24 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Florida Atlantic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.