Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner

28 of 46 top Polymarket traders hold Vitality (61%) · Vitality at 51¢ · $199K held · ends Nov 12

FURIA50¢Vitality50¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vitality

Consensus Traders

Vitality 61%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$199.1K

Combined PnL

$10.3K

Smart Money Entry

62.2¢ → 50.5¢

-19% since entry · 28 traders

Research grade

NeutralVitality at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

28 of 46 top traders (61%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FURIA50%

Vitality51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FURIA18 traders

Total Value$92.0K

Total Shares210,985

Combined PnL+$13.7K

Vitality28 traders

Total Value$89.1K

Total Shares147,196

Combined PnL$-3.4K

FURIA — 39%Vitality — 61%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on Vitality. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFURIA 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Vitality 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL plustiCTR	FURIAavg 39.9¢	$39.1K	$43.6K	+$4.5K	28% 18-47 (65)
tankfest2027	Vitalityavg 68¢	$31.4K	$31.8K	+$461.13	— 5-6 (11)
FA fantasy7788CTR	FURIAavg 31.8¢	$20.0K	$27.9K	+$7.9K	42% 105-145 (250)
FA facaigege	Vitalityavg 54.7¢	$13.3K	$13.5K	+$201.67	— 10-7 (17)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Vitalityavg 59¢	$8.6K	$7.7K	-$597.14	56% 3884-3045 (6929)
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 59¢	$6.7K	$5.7K	-$979.75
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 40¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$382.61
WH white-rabbit	Vitalityavg 57.5¢	$7.6K	$7.2K	-$389.72	5% 4-70 (74)
BL black-rabbit	Vitalityavg 58.5¢	$7.0K	$6.5K	-$474.01	6% 4-67 (71)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	FURIAavg 42.7¢	$37.2K	$5.5K	-$661.42	62% 83-51 (134)
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 42.7¢	$2.9K	$3.3K	+$2.7K
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 59.7¢	$2.6K	$2.2K	$-3.4K
FK fkALG2FalconsTES	Vitalityavg 64.8¢	$5.1K	$4.3K	-$726.91	46% 896-1062 (1958)
31 319113331313111	Vitalityavg 64.8¢	$6.2K	$3.2K	-$686.77	58% 99-73 (172)
TH Thunderous-Authoritarian-SnarlCTR	FURIAavg 31¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$0	0% 0-28 (28)
SU suntoriARB<$100	Vitalityavg 69.6¢	$3.4K	$3.0K	-$469.99	47% 1377-1532 (2909)
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 69.6¢	$2.3K	$1.8K	-$462.4
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 44.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$7.6
cruzNBACTR	FURIAavg 41.6¢	$2.4K	$2.7K	+$230.43	— 0-4 (4)
TH THEHIGHLIFECTR	FURIAavg 45¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$80.6	52% 1352-1237 (2589)
CA calm919	Vitalityavg 66¢	$3.0K	$2.5K	-$522.73	4% 4-85 (89)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	FURIAavg 46¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$27	14% 19-113 (132)
0X 0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620	Vitalityavg 50¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$180	51% 38-37 (75)
RR rrooster	Vitalityavg 59.3¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$190	41% 24-35 (59)
vtcchampion52CTR	FURIAavg 30¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$108.37	48% 853-909 (1762)
CA calculate10	Vitalityavg 58.3¢	$2.5K	$2.0K	-$91.46	26% 39-110 (149)
polaroid14CTR	FURIAavg 40.3¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$410	— 3-5 (8)
Tolkonevminus2	Vitalityavg 69¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$0	42% 46-63 (109)
Vladooos	Vitalityavg 70¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$322.12	62% 21-13 (34)
0X 0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR	FURIAavg 30¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$48.44	— 0-7 (7)
lma0o0o0o	Vitalityavg 61¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$112.5	55% 22-18 (40)

plustiCTR

FURIA

Invested

$39,116.83

Value

$43.6K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

28%

18-47 (65)

tankfest2027

Vitality

Invested

$31,356.78

Value

$31.8K

PnL

+$461.13

Record

—

5-6 (11)

fantasy7788CTR

FURIA

Invested

$20,000

Value

$27.9K

PnL

+$7.9K

Record

42%

105-145 (250)

facaigege

Vitality

Invested

$13,302.56

Value

$13.5K

PnL

+$201.67

Record

—

10-7 (17)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Vitality

Invested

$8,586.19

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$597.14

Record

56%

3884-3045 (6929)

Both legs:

Vitality$6,695.5759¢-$979.75

FURIA$1,610.8240¢+$382.61

white-rabbit

Vitality

Invested

$7,566.4

Value

$7.2K

PnL

-$389.72

Record

4-70 (74)

black-rabbit

Vitality

Invested

$7,014

Value

$6.5K

PnL

-$474.01

Record

4-67 (71)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

FURIA

Invested

$37,169.28

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$661.42

Record

62%

83-51 (134)

Both legs:

FURIA$2,882.5842.7¢+$2.7K

Vitality$2,559.4959.7¢$-3.4K

fkALG2FalconsTES

Vitality

Invested

$5,055.33

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$726.91

Record

46%

896-1062 (1958)

319113331313111

Vitality

Invested

$6,164.05

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$686.77

Record

58%

99-73 (172)

Thunderous-Authoritarian-SnarlCTR

FURIA

Invested

$3,083.84

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

0-28 (28)

suntoriARB<$100

Vitality

Invested

$3,433.54

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$469.99

Record

47%

1377-1532 (2909)

Both legs:

Vitality$2,287.5369.6¢-$462.4

FURIA$1,146.0144.8¢-$7.6

cruzNBACTR

FURIA

Invested

$2,427.29

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$230.43

Record

—

0-4 (4)

THEHIGHLIFECTR

FURIA

Invested

$2,417.86

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$80.6

Record

52%

1352-1237 (2589)

calm919

Vitality

Invested

$3,000

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$522.73

Record

4-85 (89)

ubetteruuuuCTR

FURIA

Invested

$2,483.99

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$27

Record

14%

19-113 (132)

0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620

Vitality

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$180

Record

51%

38-37 (75)

rrooster

Vitality

Invested

$2,369.99

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$190

Record

41%

24-35 (59)

vtcchampion52CTR

FURIA

Invested

$2,046.05

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$108.37

Record

48%

853-909 (1762)

calculate10

Vitality

Invested

$2,540.42

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$91.46

Record

26%

39-110 (149)

polaroid14CTR

FURIA

Invested

$1,610

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$410

Record

—

3-5 (8)

Tolkonevminus2

Vitality

Invested

$1,902.43

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

46-63 (109)

Vladooos

Vitality

Invested

$2,147.5

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$322.12

Record

62%

21-13 (34)

0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR

FURIA

Invested

$1,453.22

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$48.44

Record

—

0-7 (7)

lma0o0o0o

Vitality

Invested

$1,524.96

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$112.5

Record

55%

22-18 (40)

Research grade

NeutralVitality at 51%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

28 of 46 top traders (61%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on Vitality. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFURIA 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Vitality 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vitality wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.