Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner

19 of 35 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (54%) · Spirit at 65¢ · $95K held · ends Nov 12

Spirit65¢G235¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Spirit

Consensus Traders

Spirit 54%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$94.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

62¢ → 64.5¢

+4% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

19 of 35 top traders (54%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Spirit65%

G236%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

G216 traders

Total Value$35.3K

Total Shares103,701

Combined PnL$-3.2K

Spirit19 traders

Total Value$43.6K

Total Shares67,199

Combined PnL+$1.7K

G2 — 46%Spirit — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FA fantasy7788CTR	G2avg 37.8¢	$20.0K	$17.7K	$-2.3K	42% 107-147 (254)
BR Brz4629	Spiritavg 64.9¢	$15.4K	$15.3K	-$105.5	73% 16-6 (22)
JohnLKellyJr	Spiritavg 54.8¢	$5.6K	$6.8K	+$1.2K	60% 12-8 (20)
Stone1337	Spiritavg 63¢	$6.3K	$6.3K	+$0	46% 21-25 (46)
SU suntoriARB<$100	G2avg 36.7¢	$5.0K	$4.8K	-$196.2	47% 1507-1682 (3189)
└ G2 leg	G2avg 36.7¢	$3.1K	$2.8K	-$272.39
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 63.9¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$76.18
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Spiritavg 61.3¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	+$38.69	56% 3893-3059 (6952)
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 61.3¢	$2.4K	$2.6K	+$126.69
└ G2 leg	G2avg 37.2¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$88
CA caishenbaoyoufadacai888CTR	G2avg 34.4¢	$3.8K	$4.0K	+$279.01	— 6-11 (17)
FR frohp5	Spiritavg 60.2¢	$3.3K	$3.8K	+$434.84	60% 1240-818 (2058)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Spiritavg 60.5¢	$17.8K	$3.3K	+$281.6	62% 87-53 (140)
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 60.5¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	$-1.4K
└ G2 leg	G2avg 38.3¢	$782.9	$725.82	+$1.7K
PE penguin1125CTR	G2avg 29.9¢	$2.9K	$3.2K	+$351.38	3% 3-110 (113)
YI yishiwuchengCTR	G2avg 35.4¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$73.58	56% 47-37 (84)
10 10scat	Spiritavg 54.5¢	$2.0K	$2.5K	+$496.01	6% 31-528 (559)
Vladooos	Spiritavg 73¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	-$239.66	60% 25-17 (42)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	G2avg 38.4¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$106.14	54% 269-231 (500)
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 65¢	$858.1	$877.9	+$20.4
└ G2 leg	G2avg 38.4¢	$988.13	$861.59	-$126.54
13 1337zzz1337CTR	G2avg 49.5¢	$2.5K	$1.6K	-$884.45	— 7-0 (7)
RR rrooster	Spiritavg 57.4¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$182	40% 26-39 (65)
BI BillBenter2026	Spiritavg 59.4¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	+$101.78	25% 174-517 (691)
CA calm919CTR	G2avg 49¢	$1.9K	$1.3K	-$594.92	5% 5-87 (92)
31 319113331313111	Spiritavg 64.2¢	$2.2K	$1.2K	-$407.65	57% 102-76 (178)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	G2avg 42.5¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$96.82	51% 2045-1957 (4002)
└ G2 leg	G2avg 42.5¢	$711.61	$595.09	-$116.51
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 61.5¢	$409.5	$429.2	+$19.7
AS asuka7CTR	G2avg 28¢	$816.23	$976.56	+$160.33	5% 15-316 (331)
latvian.demonCTR	G2avg 36¢	$900	$837.5	-$62.5	7% 32-441 (473)
GT gt7238CTR	G2avg 38.2¢	$843.8	$740.35	-$103.45	4% 21-461 (482)
JO jole24CTR	G2avg 36¢	$720	$740	+$20	— 8-10 (18)
WE weeeskiesCTR	G2avg 36.5¢	$776.85	$713.54	-$63.31	— 4-7 (11)

fantasy7788CTR

Invested

$20,000

Value

$17.7K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

42%

107-147 (254)

Brz4629

Spirit

Invested

$15,404.06

Value

$15.3K

PnL

-$105.5

Record

73%

16-6 (22)

JohnLKellyJr

Spirit

Invested

$5,606.03

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

60%

12-8 (20)

Stone1337

Spirit

Invested

$6,300

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

21-25 (46)

suntoriARB<$100

Invested

$4,996.31

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$196.2

Record

47%

1507-1682 (3189)

Both legs:

G2$3,106.6836.7¢-$272.39

Spirit$1,886.3263.9¢+$76.18

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Spirit

Invested

$4,380.03

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$38.69

Record

56%

3893-3059 (6952)

Both legs:

Spirit$2,444.0161.3¢+$126.69

G2$1,936.0237.2¢-$88

caishenbaoyoufadacai888CTR

Invested

$3,750.34

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$279.01

Record

—

6-11 (17)

frohp5

Spirit

Invested

$3,333

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$434.84

Record

60%

1240-818 (2058)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Spirit

Invested

$17,833.77

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$281.6

Record

62%

87-53 (140)

Both legs:

Spirit$2,369.0760.5¢$-1.4K

G2$782.938.3¢+$1.7K

penguin1125CTR

Invested

$2,892.88

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$351.38

Record

3-110 (113)

yishiwuchengCTR

Invested

$2,820.68

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$73.58

Record

56%

47-37 (84)

10scat

Spirit

Invested

$1,999.8

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$496.01

Record

31-528 (559)

Vladooos

Spirit

Invested

$2,691.52

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$239.66

Record

60%

25-17 (42)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Invested

$1,865.63

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$106.14

Record

54%

269-231 (500)

Both legs:

Spirit$858.165¢+$20.4

G2$988.1338.4¢-$126.54

1337zzz1337CTR

Invested

$2,500

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$884.45

Record

—

7-0 (7)

rrooster

Spirit

Invested

$1,148

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$182

Record

40%

26-39 (65)

BillBenter2026

Spirit

Invested

$1,372.85

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$101.78

Record

25%

174-517 (691)

calm919CTR

Invested

$1,880.71

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$594.92

Record

5-87 (92)

319113331313111

Spirit

Invested

$2,231

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$407.65

Record

57%

102-76 (178)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Invested

$1,121.11

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$96.82

Record

51%

2045-1957 (4002)

Both legs:

G2$711.6142.5¢-$116.51

Spirit$409.561.5¢+$19.7

asuka7CTR

Invested

$816.23

Value

$976.56

PnL

+$160.33

Record

15-316 (331)

latvian.demonCTR

Invested

$900

Value

$837.5

PnL

-$62.5

Record

32-441 (473)

gt7238CTR

Invested

$843.8

Value

$740.35

PnL

-$103.45

Record

21-461 (482)

jole24CTR

Invested

$720

Value

$740

PnL

+$20

Record

—

8-10 (18)

weeeskiesCTR

Invested

$776.85

Value

$713.54

PnL

-$63.31

Record

—

4-7 (11)

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

19 of 35 top traders (54%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.