Will Arsenal FC vs. Hull City AFC end in a draw?

29 of 37 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 89¢ · $112K held · ended Nov 7

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 78%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$111.7K

Combined PnL

$394.87

Smart Money Entry

83.9¢ → 89¢

+6% since entry · 29 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 89%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

29 of 37 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No29 traders

Total Value$95.2K

Total Shares104,083

Combined PnL+$3.9K

Yes8 traders

Total Value$12.0K

Total Shares107,350

Combined PnL$-3.5K

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Noavg 78.7¢	$22.0K	$24.9K	+$2.9K	53% 6334-5615 (11949)
FO forecastication4	Noavg 88¢	$12.5K	$12.7K	+$142.22	50% 1423-1429 (2852)
AN Anon455	Noavg 76.6¢	$10.6K	$11.9K	+$1.3K	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 91.8¢	$10.5K	$10.1K	-$425.55	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 87.2¢	$8.5K	$8.6K	+$134.69	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
MI MigRodrCTR	Yesavg 12.1¢	$9.2K	$8.4K	-$800.39	24% 18-56 (74)
LI Limousin	Noavg 90.1¢	$5.5K	$5.2K	-$335.87	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 81.8¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	+$298.6	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 89¢	$3.9K	$3.4K	-$506.71	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 21.7¢	$6.0K	$3.1K	$-2.8K	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
oieshfn345	Noavg 89.9¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$174.79	58% 2117-1562 (3679)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$4.4K	$2.6K	$-1.9K	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24¢	$3.5K	$1.6K	$-1.9K
└ No leg	Noavg 83.1¢	$876.45	$938.82	+$62.37
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 84.7¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$125.19	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 93.9¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$107.39	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
└ No leg	Noavg 93.9¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$84.38
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 5.5¢	$194.66	$386.42	+$191.77
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Noavg 81.7¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$136.09	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 80¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$164.74	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
PE pelik	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$171.47	99% 5182-74 (5256)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Noavg 79.8¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$154.02	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
AR ARocky33	Noavg 80.8¢	$888.93	$979.2	+$90.27	76% 4579-1422 (6001)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 88¢	$502.56	$471.67	+$2.65	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
NM NM-P	Noavg 88.4¢	$468.29	$471.26	+$2.97	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 98.3¢	$411.73	$372.78	-$38.95	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
WI Winning2...CTR	Yesavg 6¢	$180	$330	+$150	33% 1175-2411 (3586)
GC GC-P	Noavg 88¢	$348.36	$316.79	+$4.51	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 88.1¢	$1.7K	$293.81	+$1.61	54% 10485-8797 (19282)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Invested

$21,982.71

Value

$24.9K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

53%

6334-5615 (11949)

forecastication4

Invested

$12,515.36

Value

$12.7K

PnL

+$142.22

Record

50%

1423-1429 (2852)

Anon455

Invested

$10,594.79

Value

$11.9K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

Flaznorp

Invested

$10,495.64

Value

$10.1K

PnL

-$425.55

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$8,455.36

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$134.69

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

MigRodrCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,165.11

Value

$8.4K

PnL

-$800.39

Record

24%

18-56 (74)

Limousin

Invested

$5,489.74

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$335.87

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

38791873984189

Invested

$3,694.81

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$298.6

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

LightParadox

Invested

$3,864.1

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$506.71

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,954.21

Value

$3.1K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

oieshfn345

Invested

$2,861.94

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$174.79

Record

58%

2117-1562 (3679)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$4,401.29

Value

$2.6K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

Both legs:

Yes$3,524.8424¢$-1.9K

No$876.4583.1¢+$62.37

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$2,237.75

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$125.19

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$1,821.46

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$107.39

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Both legs:

No$1,626.893.9¢-$84.38

Yes$194.665.5¢+$191.77

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Invested

$1,519.39

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$136.09

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,460.06

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$164.74

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

pelik

Invested

$1,571.52

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$171.47

Record

99%

5182-74 (5256)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Invested

$1,234.86

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$154.02

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

ARocky33

Invested

$888.93

Value

$979.2

PnL

+$90.27

Record

76%

4579-1422 (6001)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$502.56

Value

$471.67

PnL

+$2.65

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

NM-P

Invested

$468.29

Value

$471.26

PnL

+$2.97

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

cigarettes

Invested

$411.73

Value

$372.78

PnL

-$38.95

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

Winning2...CTR

Yes

Invested

$180

Value

$330

PnL

+$150

Record

33%

1175-2411 (3586)

GC-P

Invested

$348.36

Value

$316.79

PnL

+$4.51

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

Pan9X

Invested

$1,731.54

Value

$293.81

PnL

+$1.61

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 89%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

29 of 37 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.